Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Jul 13, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Sells Off from Stratospheric Heights (back to Upper-BB A/hrs)"

Traded: $64,321,581,181.00 ($64.32 B)
Volume: 38,987,036 ; Biggest $$ Day Ever
VWAP: $1,649.82

Closing SP / VWAP: 90.56%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $277.667B / $169.519B = 163.80%​

TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $110.399B

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 53.9% (51st Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 45.5% (46th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.50% of Short Volume (54th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "WVAP = $1.31 > Opening SP "

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[mickle]

I'm not sure that FSD will get priced as high as $40k. And it doesn't currently cost $9k, so they don't even have current prices accurate. Come on people, it isn't that hard to verify your numbers.

He also got a number of things wrong in that chart. Roadster is $200K-$250K but he shows $250K as average price. And Semi is priced $150K-$200K but he shows $230K as average price. He also shows Model Y only doing a bit more sales than Model 3 even though Elon says it will be more like double. And nothing about Energy or Solar revenue. Doesn't seem well researched.

 

[HG Wells]

I was wondering if it was too early to open some champagne about 8:30 this morning.

That didn't age well.

How old was the champagne that didn't age well ?

 

[MC3OZ]

I think @Artful Dodger is right that Kato Rd/Roadrunner cells are for Models S/X, not 3/Y.

Could be for plaid, could be for LR versions. Makes sense that the new cells would not only go into the highest end vehicles, but the lowest volume vehicles. And, they would also be for the future vehicles: CT, Semi, Roadster 2. Kind of like S & X stayed on 18650s while 3 & Y went with 21700s - and that hasn't changed for a few years now.

Yes he is probably right about S & X, and 38 trucks a day only seems enough for S & X.

But that still doesn't explain where cells are coming for for Model Y and the Semi.

We don't know the weight of Roadrunner packs, I'm not sure what volume 38 trucks per day can produce.

 

[Mo City]

View attachment 564269

Thank you very much!

Year to year overall delivery totals look very reasonable. However, I think the Cybertruck numbers should be moved one column to the left. They seem to be one year behind. I wonder if that was a spreadsheet error. No doubt in my mind there will deliveries in 2021 and 2022 should be the breakout year.

The comments show Alex Potter has fresh eyes and a real clue about what's going on in transportation. Good for him.

 

[Jack6591]

The calories burned over S&P 500 inclusion astonished me — indeed, a personal learning experience. For myself, I view Q2 profitability as a greater event. I say that, for only one reason, market psychology.

The stalwarts of Wall Street, continue to see Tesla through an automotive filter. As we enter earnings season, the stark contrast between TSLA being profitable and the industry losing billions will be an inflection point. Recall Tesla’s first profitable quarter in 2013. I’m convinced the emotional reaction by the market will be profound.

So much is written about data and evidence being baked into a share price, yet market reactions to released news events are often naive.

July 22 draws nigh.

 

[FrankSG]

They might have included the 1k increase twice, or combining 2k for AP and 7k for FSD.
Whichever way, their table is messed up too (both first and second columns)
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Pretty sure the $1k assumes a certain take-rate. I guess he's assuming about 1 in 7 or 1 in 8 buyers add FSD to their Tesla purchase.

 

[FrankSG]

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First reasonable numbers I've seen from a Wall Street analyst.

 

[FrankSG]

Barron's - 17 minutes ago: Tesla Stock Has More Than Doubled This Year. Why This Investor Is Still a Fan.

Quote of Baillie Gifford's James Anderson:

Many people thought Volkswagen [VOW3.Germany] and other car companies would prove this year that they could compete with Tesla. That hasn't happened. Tesla looks to have structural leadership of five to seven years. The company has been able to expand its growth rate and lower costs more quickly than we thought. Tesla is getting through the worst of its battery-supply constraints, as ex-Tesla employees start battery-supply companies.

Also, there is nothing remotely resembling self-satisfaction in Tesla's ambition to become vastly bigger in scale and in its impact on the world. I have never seen a company with such little complacency. With Tesla, perhaps more than any other company, predicting what the share price will do over one day or three months is a mug's game. But I am happy to be a very strong owner for the next few years.

Looks like it won't just be Ron Baron himself who's not selling (much) even if TSLA runs up further to $2,000 or $3,000, but sounds like Baillie Gifford is also HODL'ing.

I wonder where the 26M shares index funds need to buy upon S&P 500 inclusion are going to come from then.

 

[FrankSG]

Robinhood exploded today. ~50 thousand new Robinhood accounts added TSLA to their portfolio today.

And with that, TSLA is now in the top 10 most popular stocks on Robinhood.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Robinhood exploded today. ~50 thousand new Robinhood accounts added TSLA to their portfolio today.

And with that, TSLA is now in the top 10 most popular stocks on Robinhood.

View attachment 564293

View attachment 564294

I wonder whether these numbers are skewed by fractional shares.

 

[Remster32]

He also got a number of things wrong in that chart. Roadster is $200K-$250K but he shows $250K as average price. And Semi is priced $150K-$200K but he shows $230K as average price. He also shows Model Y only doing a bit more sales than Model 3 even though Elon says it will be more like double. And nothing about Energy or Solar revenue. Doesn't seem well researched.

This is a bad take. You can nitpick things out of any model, but just because you see a few errors doesn't mean it's poorly researched. Alex Potter is one of the best Tesla analysts on the street. He gets it.

The Roadster and Semi ASPs are a rounding error when you consider the volumes they are forecasting to be produced. As it is, those numbers are placeholders in the model. I can tell because the prices never change from 2020 to 2040, while every other one does. It isn't a big deal. And I can't blame him for not forecasting the Model Y outselling the 3 by 2x just because that is Elon's best guess. If the trajectory points that way in the future, then that may be factored in.

Energy and Solar revenue is totally speculative right now. In 2019 it accounted for 6% of revenue. It was 9% in 2018. If it re-accelerates and becomes 10-15%-plus analysts will take notice and start to model it.

This note is about FSD software revenue. The takeaway should be $60 billion in FSD revenue in 2030. $182 billion FSD revenue in 2040. All at 90% gross margin.

 

[MP3Mike]

Robinhood exploded today. ~50 thousand new Robinhood accounts added TSLA to their portfolio today.

I don't understand why people make such a big deal about this. They literally could have bought $1 worth of Tesla, or only 0.00067 of a share to get included in those counts. (So that 50k users could account for as few as 33 shares purchased today.) And somebody else that already had one share and added 1,000 more wouldn't change the count at all. In my opinion there just isn't enough information to make it valuable.

I wonder whether these numbers are skewed by fractional shares.

Of course they are.

 

[ggr]

Speculation but might it have something to do with the new margin requirements for TSLA? Is he helping out his clients by doing this before they get margin called? ETRADE apparently increased margin requirements.

ETrade raised their margin requirement about a week ago from 35% to 40%. They did not raise it today, it's still 40%. However, individuals can have their margin maintenance requirement raised if they are "overconcentrated", that is, too much of their total stock position is in one stock.

 

[MartinAustin]

Seems like loads of stocks went up in the after-hours period. Something effected the general market I think

 

[EVortex]

Looks like it won't just be Ron Baron himself who's not selling (much) even if TSLA runs up further to $2,000 or $3,000, but sounds like Baillie Gifford is also HODL'ing.

I wonder where the 26M shares index funds need to buy upon S&P 500 inclusion are going to come from then.

Maybe today is a preview - weak longs that can’t weather the uncertainty.

 

[elasalle]

OK, he did not say "price is too high, imo"

 

[Stretch2727]

You should stick with MSFT and not invest into Tesla. This stock has super highs and super lows. If you can't handle the pressure, then don't let that greed dictates your actions. Not for the faint of hearts, most of my friends who can't handle the volatility has gotten burned so badly by Tesla.

Could not agree more.

For all the newbies just look at the 52 week high/low before you invest.

52-wk high 1,794.99
52-wk low 211.00

Ok this was an unusual past year but find me another stock that has this volatility/range.

HODL is an understatement for my 5 years in TSLA.

 

[mickificki]

View attachment 564296


OK, he did not say "price is too high, imo"

I like this guys reply to Elon’s wow:

 

[AlMc]

Well, I admit that my older brain does not always remember correctly but the last time EM suggested the SP was too high resulted in a one day drop. (750 to 700??) then it has doubled since.......

I agree 'wow' is the best answer