Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ninpb]

Their new referral program is also rather smart. It's just one free Powerwall once you go over 10 referrals, but no more. I so desperately want 10+ referrals now so I can get a free Powerwall, I was actually considering canvasing my neighbors to see if they were interested... But for most installations, a single Powerwall won't do much. For the system I'm installing I would probably need 3 Powerwalls, so the referral reward effectively operates like a 33% off coupon.

Friend just bought a new house and I told him wait a year to have a baseline for electric bill for when he does get solar. Saw the new referral program today and told him to not be a wuss and get it now haha.

 

[smorgasbord]

Lucky for us, that ticker's already taken.

You mean lucky for Tiziana Life Sciences: Tesla Hit a New High. No, It Was TLSA. Confused?

 

[SOULPEDL]

While I know everyone loves the MMD narrative, TSLA just was tracking NASDAQ this AM with the quick rise and drop at open.

TSLA moved naturally today? Very rare.

Congradulations TMC, you did it!

Now if you search for that insulting term, TMC has taken the search crown from Reddit /WSB as the den of 15 year old boys. This term is NOT in wide circulation, for obvious reasons, except for WSB and some BI/SA articles.

OT... but slow anyway.

Yay? Thx for sharing, context is everything - we were trying to revise it into something more meaningful (interesting piece of data). I get it's just a word search, but what's behind the word use is not considered. Use of "Freedom" in Hong Kong doesn't mean they are free. Future search engines might eventually show context against another word or view maybe. This would take some serious AI, but perhaps very useful for the context part.

Likewise, on some days the Bollinger Bands seem meaningless while other days it's all we talk about. Today, they tell the tale of a boring stock, but we've been outside the lines for a while as well. (Silly analogy, just picking on the chart again).

I'm sure this is BB abuse, oh well. But which way are we going, right?

5 Day:

5 Year:

 

[AlMc]

But FATMAN if funnier.

Newbies. Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

AlMc, Dec 12, 2016
↑
I know I am the biggest cheerleader on here, but I am so darn bullish right now I could scream. I have been telling everybody I know about this once in a lifetime opportunity.
I hope you are a good prognosticator: As we get near the end of the year I usually like to take *stock* in my investments. here is a list of the FATMAN stock performance so far this year:

Stocks %YTD 1 YR%

F (Facebook) 14.35 14.42
A (apple) 8.26 -1.44
T (Tesla) -19.93 -14.40
M (Microsoft) 11.70 12.71
A (Google/Alphabet) 4.10 5.01
N (Netflix) 7.43 -1.06

Hopefully you are correct and these numbers change for TSLA as we end this year and go into 2017.

 

[ZeApelido]

A substantial portion of the world's lithium supply comes from very dry areas around Chile and other mostly South American countries. They pump millions of gallons of brine into evaporating ponds and after 12 - 18 months what remains is processed into battery grade lithium. The amount of lithium in these huge brine aquifers is more than enough to supply all the lithium batteries will need for the foreseeable future. I believe some approaches are close to being perfected and put to work.

I totally forgot to mention that one of TSLAQ's recent proclamations is that Elon orchestrating the resignation of Bolivian President Evo Morales in order to take control of their lithium supply.

 

[SOULPEDL]

With so many people saying "Telsa" all the time, can you imagine if Tesla's stock ticker was TLSA? Unimaginable.

F

 

[AlMc]

Sorry if already posted: Great insight on Tesla's newest board member, especially how he combats short sellers...Tesla recruits Hiro Mizuno, ex-manager of Japan's $1.5tn pension fund


During his time at the GPIF, Mizuno emphasized the importance of environmental considerations in portfolio management and an advocate for sustainable and responsible investment. He also earned a reputation for challenging short-selling to promote long-term value creation by corporation

Mizuno, whose term at the GPIF ended in March, is known for his position against short-selling, a practice that has plagued Tesla.

In December, the GPIF halted stock lending from its now over $400 billion foreign equity portfolio for short-selling purpose

 

[kanweg]

Their new referral program is also rather smart. It's just one free Powerwall once you go over 10 referrals, but no more. I so desperately want 10+ referrals now so I can get a free Powerwall, I was actually considering canvasing my neighbors to see if they were interested... But for most installations, a single Powerwall won't do much. For the system I'm installing I would probably need 3 Powerwalls, so the referral reward effectively operates like a 33% off coupon.

No need to complain. You also get an increased SP. and if you really want those two additional Powerwalls for free, that is just a matter of more referrals (Extra referral money).

 

[Mo City]

Newbies. Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

AlMc, Dec 12, 2016
↑
I know I am the biggest cheerleader on here, but I am so darn bullish right now I could scream. I have been telling everybody I know about this once in a lifetime opportunity.
I hope you are a good prognosticator: As we get near the end of the year I usually like to take *stock* in my investments. here is a list of the FATMAN stock performance so far this year:

Stocks %YTD 1 YR%

F (Facebook) 14.35 14.42
A (apple) 8.26 -1.44
T (Tesla) -19.93 -14.40
M (Microsoft) 11.70 12.71
A (Google/Alphabet) 4.10 5.01
N (Netflix) 7.43 -1.06

Hopefully you are correct and these numbers change for TSLA as we end this year and go into 2017.

Where does Amazon (AMZN) fit in? FAATMAN? FATMAAN?

 

[Tslynk67]

I totally forgot to mention that one of TSLAQ's recent proclamations is that Elon orchestrating the resignation of Bolivian President Evo Morales in order to take control of their lithium supply.

Seriously, would you bet against a man this devious and with this much power? They're obviously delirious!!

 

[SOULPEDL]

So "the street" isn't expecting a $1 profit and S&P inclusion? I thought that since the upcoming S&P inclusion was getting airtime that analysts had come around to a profitable quarter.

Does that mean if Q2 is profitable it is technically a beat (hopefully with large increase in share price).

If not a beat because of whisper numbers, what would be needed to drive home that this was a strong quarter and a clear beat/blow up of analyst expectations.

And, is that always based on profit or EPS or, does strong cash flow come into play?

Call me a pessimist on this S&P, I fully expect huge scrutiny on Q2 Earnings - something buried deep in the details that most couldn't even explain or attempt to understand, and that's their cover. It buys time about whether profit was real or not. Only argument against inclusion as that S&P might lose credibility, but I bet that's the risk they'll take. I really hope I'm wrong, but like the $420 effect on SP, this too would be short lived.

I'm cautious here because this stuff happens with TSLA and many here have lived through the BS. Options are a really bad idea now IMHO unless leaps of the longest kind. When I see questions like when's the time of day I can close my Option position... Careful people another attack pending earnings... either way I'm HODLing. (Maybe I should show that 5 yr chart again where you'd swear TSLA was standing still doing nothing for years.)

 

[Buckminster]

Elon's Twitter access taken off him a week before ER:

 

[ToTheStars]

I really want to see Tesla make a variety of stainless steel vehicles after the cybertruck and I am hoping to see what their thoughts are on it.

Great question. I would like stainless steel Model 2 myself. The optimal size is if the ratio Model 2 : Model 3 would be the same as the ratio Model 3 : Model Y.
Take my money Elon.

 

[elasalle]

My short term perspective, is about 3 things ... S&P(Q2 Earnings), Battery Day, Stock Split.
Each one by itself is a catalyst ...

 

[Tslynk67]

My short term perspective, is about 3 things ... S&P(Q2 Earnings), Battery Day, Stock Split.
Each one by itself is a catalyst ...

~10 days after battery day we have Q3 P&D, which is going to be Shock & Awe II for the short-sighted Wall-Street Gang.

That's why my short-term call of choice is 16/10, so much between now and then it's a sure-fire winner!

 

[Remster32]

So "the street" isn't expecting a $1 profit and S&P inclusion? I thought that since the upcoming S&P inclusion was getting airtime that analysts had come around to a profitable quarter.

Does that mean if Q2 is profitable it is technically a beat (hopefully with large increase in share price).

If not a beat because of whisper numbers, what would be needed to drive home that this was a strong quarter and a clear beat/blow up of analyst expectations.

And, is that always based on profit or EPS or, does strong cash flow come into play?

The reason for the low EPS numbers is due to the fact that only a subset of analysts update their estimates after the Q2 delivery report and Elon's tweets regarding profitability, short shorts, etc.

Nine out of the 23 analysts included in FactSet EPS consensus have not updated their numbers since Q1 earnings. Those numbers are stale, especially for this quarter given the Fremont shutdown. But even so, they are still included.

FactSet also shows the Sharp Consensus. "The Sharp Consensus is calculated by an algorithm which analyzes revision patterns among covering analysts. These revision patterns suggest that new information has entered the market impacting the security’s consensus value. It can be an event related to the company itself, relative to the sector, or a natural disaster. Used in conjunction with the default consensus items, the new Sharp Consensus figures can be an excellent indicator for predicting earnings surprise."
Sharp consensus estimates now available from FactSet Estimates

The Sharp Consensus non-GAAP EPS and revenue for Q2 is positive $0.71 and $5.809M for what it's worth. That compares with FactSet's loss of $0.14 and $5,146M. There is no Sharp Consensus for GAAP EPS unfortunately. They only include it on a small number of metrics.

Of the research notes I've seen that have been released this month, a strong majority of analysts are now forecasting a small positive EPS number. For some reason it looks like not all of FactSet's numbers have been updated. Piper is still showing as ($0.56) even though they updated it to $0.53 as an example.

If Q2 is not profitable, I believe the stock will drop significantly. Expectations for a profitable quarter are there. The recent run up since the start of the month should be proof enough of that. Guidance matters a lot too. If they reiterate their outlook to "comfortably exceed" 500k deliveries this year, I think that would push the stock up.

Edit: Made some corrections.

 

[kanweg]

I just did a large write up on TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion for anyone interested. Reading this forum during the past few weeks I found that there were still a surprisingly large number of misunderstandings when it comes to the S&P 500 inclusion, so I hope this might help clear some of that up:

Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion: Predicting TSLA's post-inclusion stock price

Utterly brilliant and clear.

to dampen the shock effect, the committee could make an exception to the 3 day rule and make it longer.

 

[Tslynk67]

The reason for the low EPS numbers is due to the fact that only a subset of analysts update their estimates after the Q2 delivery report and Elon's tweets regarding profitability, short shorts, etc.

Nine out of the 23 analysts included in FactSet EPS consensus have not updated their numbers since Q1 earnings. Those numbers are stale, especially for this quarter given the Fremont shutdown. But even so, they are still included.

FactSet also shows the Sharp Consensus. "The Sharp Consensus is calculated by an algorithm which analyzes revision patterns among covering analysts. These revision patterns suggest that new information has entered the market impacting the security’s consensus value. It can be an event related to the company itself, relative to the sector, or a natural disaster. Used in conjunction with the default consensus items, the new Sharp Consensus figures can be an excellent indicator for predicting earnings surprise."
Sharp consensus estimates now available from FactSet Estimates

The Sharp Consensus GAAP EPS and revenue for Q2 is positive $0.91 and $5.809M for what it's worth. That compares with FactSet's loss of $0.14 and $5,146M.

Interesting, earlier today this was -0.54, now -0.11, surely estimates should be made before P&D is released, not after. Anyways, going to be a lot higher than that, so fck 'em!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I just did a large write up on TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion for anyone interested. Reading this forum during the past few weeks I found that there were still a surprisingly large number of misunderstandings when it comes to the S&P 500 inclusion, so I hope this might help clear some of that up:

Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion: Predicting TSLA's post-inclusion stock price

Erratum:

"The current equilibrium stock price where supply of ~145M shares (ex-Elon) exactly matches demand of 145M shares is ~$1,500."​

The current SP of $1,500 is based on a supply of 145M shares (the 'float') + ~14M shares ('short interest as of Jun 30, 2020).

Even under the conservative estimate of a linear supply/demand curve, reducing S.I. from 7.5% to a more normal 1.5% (for a Large Cap Tech) increases the equilibrium SP by at least 6% or about $100 per share (likely more since supply/demand curve is NOT flat).

Again, this is the EQUILIBRIUM, and does not account for any SP spike volatility encountered while the Market undergoes price discovery...

Cheers!

 

[Remster32]

Interesting, earlier today this was -0.54, now -0.11, surely estimates should be made before P&D is released, not after. Anyways, going to be a lot higher than that, so fck 'em!

View attachment 565647

Sorry, I made some edits. Switched around GAAP and non-GAAP accidentally. It looks like the default EPS number for Tesla is non-GAAP. The FactSet non-GAAP EPS estimate is in fact -$0.14 as of right now.

Anyways, it would not make much sense for analysts to not update their models and estimates when new information such as delivery numbers comes out. They would not be doing their jobs. It is still an estimate, just a more informed one.

Consensus numbers are fluid. They change every time a model revision is made.