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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Before the end of normal trading hours on 7/24
FAGTMAN is funny in Danish.
Baird raised its PT to $984 but Kallo said to take profit. Guess he's not a bull anymore. 
Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $984 at Baird, But Says 'Take Profits Near Term'
Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $984 at Baird, But Says 'Take Profits Near Term'
Don't know how it would be funnier in a cheese danish.
Yes, I bought some. I haven't played with bonds much, so I thought I'd see how they went. Think of them as long term calls where you can't lose your money unless Tesla actually goes bankwupt. The 2% interest is cute but irrelevant. I bought at $88 2019-05-31, currently $484.125 since they are well into the conversion range.
Aug 21 Calls, $3500 ... 12$ premiums
SP might rise after earnings, but IV will likely collapse.
(+ if it hits, I am richer by a couple of Millions & will have to rebalance once again )
(+ bought shares with the proceeds - will help if rebalance is required)
SP might rise after earnings, but IV will likely collapse.
(+ if it hits, I am richer by a couple of Millions
& will have to rebalance once again )(+ bought shares with the proceeds - will help if rebalance is required)
Last edited:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The Martian
Member
@FrankSG this is one of the most informative write-ups i have ever read. So much information and data points. Thanks for doing this! To anyone who has not read this yet, please do so!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Gee....I wonder if we're gonna close at exactly $1500 today?
I read this article, so you don't all need to go and take a shower...
Actually some factually interesting data in there - although I find it odd that she would compare 2020 Q2 consensus estimate against 2019 Q1 - of what relevance is that, oh yes, it's the biggest loss in recent years, so lets bring it up now
Here’s what to expect:
Earnings: Consensus from 33 Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet calls for a GAAP loss of $1.02 cents a share, which would compare with a GAAP loss of $2.31 a share in the first quarter of 2019. The analysts expect an adjusted loss of 14 cents a share, which would compare with an adjusted loss of $1.12 a share a year ago.
Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts, as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, is expecting an adjusted profit of 6 cents a share.
Also note how she quotes Dan Ives, but somehow omits to mention Wedbush's $2000 price target:
Battery-technology innovations “remain the key ingredients in Tesla’s success on the battery front and we believe the company is getting closer to announcing the million mile battery,” Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a recent note. Such a battery could “last for decades, withstand all types of weather/terrain, and be another major milestone for the Tesla ecosystem.”
By her standards it's a very fair article!
So "the street" isn't expecting a $1 profit and S&P inclusion? I thought that since the upcoming S&P inclusion was getting airtime that analysts had come around to a profitable quarter.
Does that mean if Q2 is profitable it is technically a beat (hopefully with large increase in share price).
If not a beat because of whisper numbers, what would be needed to drive home that this was a strong quarter and a clear beat/blow up of analyst expectations.
And, is that always based on profit or EPS or, does strong cash flow come into play?
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Getting write-ups in UK share trading newsletters - Share is a broker / wrapper organisation for pensions, ISAs and normal accounts - Should investors be more like Musk or Buffett?
My bold
"Should investors be more like Musk or Buffett?
With the Tesla share price soaring, its CEO and famous entrepreneur, Elon Musk, is now worth more than Warren Buffett. Should investors start mimicking Musk’s behaviour rather than Buffett’s?"
[15 July 2020 updated]
"I can see why Tesla is so highly valued — its speciality in AI, lithium-ion batteries and positioning for when autonomous cars arrive, put it years ahead of rivals. I can see why its valuation is higher than any other car company — but that is mostly because I think the car industry faces a massive existential threat — but a quarter of a trillion dollars does seem a little steep."
"Technology is disrupting all aspects of business and will claim many scalps.
If you look at the S&P 500, you see an index that has performed remarkably well during the Covid-crisis, but strip away a handful of techs from the index and its performance has been weak.
Of course, Buffett is right to say invest in what you understand, but today a successful investor must understand tech.
I am not saying you should behave like Musk — indeed I am not sure the world is big enough for two Musks — but I do think it is important to understand why Musk’s ventures seem to be performing so well."
My bold
"Should investors be more like Musk or Buffett?
With the Tesla share price soaring, its CEO and famous entrepreneur, Elon Musk, is now worth more than Warren Buffett. Should investors start mimicking Musk’s behaviour rather than Buffett’s?"
[15 July 2020 updated]
"I can see why Tesla is so highly valued — its speciality in AI, lithium-ion batteries and positioning for when autonomous cars arrive, put it years ahead of rivals. I can see why its valuation is higher than any other car company — but that is mostly because I think the car industry faces a massive existential threat — but a quarter of a trillion dollars does seem a little steep."
"Technology is disrupting all aspects of business and will claim many scalps.
If you look at the S&P 500, you see an index that has performed remarkably well during the Covid-crisis, but strip away a handful of techs from the index and its performance has been weak.
Of course, Buffett is right to say invest in what you understand, but today a successful investor must understand tech.
I am not saying you should behave like Musk — indeed I am not sure the world is big enough for two Musks — but I do think it is important to understand why Musk’s ventures seem to be performing so well."
Recycling Li batteries makes perfect sense in the long run but is not going to provide the missing lithium needed to scale to Terawatts of batteries in the next few years. You can't produce trillions of cells by recycling the amount of cells manufactured ten years ago.
There is a better way Tesla could ensure the necessary supply than wasting time and capital to mine hard rock lithium. It would be to buy a company (or create and fund their own team of scientists and engineers) working on technology to efficiently separate lithium from salt brines.
A substantial portion of the world's lithium supply comes from very dry areas around Chile and other mostly South American countries. They pump millions of gallons of brine into evaporating ponds and after 12 - 18 months what remains is processed into battery grade lithium. The amount of lithium in these huge brine aquifers is more than enough to supply all the lithium batteries will need for the foreseeable future. I believe some approaches are close to being perfected and put to work.
Electrochemical separation of Li from brine is so much more efficient and less time consuming than current methods, once it works it would be adopted by all the companies operating these brine regions or they will go bust when their competitors adopt it and can undercut their prices.
Krugerrand
Meow
Baird raised its PT to $984 but Kallo said to take profit. Guess he's not a bull anymore.
Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $984 at Baird, But Says 'Take Profits Near Term'
That’s like the twelfth analyst that forgot to put the 1 in front.
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