Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Say

Excuse me for repeating this but I finally figured out how to link my question on 'Say' in case anyone wants to vote for it.

I really want to see Tesla make a variety of stainless steel vehicles after the cybertruck and I am hoping to see what their thoughts are on it.

Elon recently said that Model Y would be the last new product annoucement for a while.

This makes sense as the company focuses on executing its manufacturing expansion plans on 3 continents simultaneously.

Look for 2 more new products once the 2 promised Tesla Design and Engineering studios are opened in China and Berlin.

I expect we'll see a Golf-sized Eurohatch 'Model 2' out of Berlin, and a Polo-sized Worldcar 'Model 1' out of China (along with a new factory to build it in China for export to the World).

Cheers!

 

[Big Time]

Call me crazy but I’m liking that little flat moment before current rise! Continue damn it!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I expect we'll see a Golf-sized Eurohatch 'Model 2' out of Berlin, and a Polo-sized Worldcar 'Model 1' out of China

I wouldn't be surprised if they called those the Model U and Model R so they would have a U R S3XY product lineup

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I wouldn't be surprised if they called those the Model U and Model R so they would have a U R S3XY product lineup

And them come out with a Model F.....so it'll read F U R S3XY!

 

[ZsoZso]

My short term perspective, is about 3 things ... S&P(Q2 Earnings), Battery Day, Stock Split.
Each one by itself is a catalyst ...

IMHO, Elon will try to time the stock split, so we can celebrate the $420 price again
So, for a 10:1 split, we should approach 4000 first.

 

[Tslynk67]

Sorry, I made some edits. Switched around GAAP and non-GAAP accidentally. It looks like the default EPS number for Tesla is non-GAAP. The FactSet non-GAAP EPS estimate is in fact -$0.14 as of right now.

Anyways, it would not make much sense for analysts to not update their models and estimates when new information such as delivery numbers comes out. They would not be doing their jobs. It is still an estimate, just a more informed one.

Consensus numbers are fluid. They change every time a model revision is made.

Indeed, except they use these continual updates to try end engineer a miss.

I guess we shouldn't complain, they kept the SP low for years and we loaded up, hence we're loaded...

 

[elasalle]

IMHO, Elon will try to time the stock split, so we can celebrate the $420 price again
So, for a 10:1 split, we should approach 4000 first.

If that was his goal, then 1:4 split @ 1680 would work as well.

He did say wow to the 2K+ price target recently

 

[Cherry Wine]

Aug 21 Calls, $3500 ... 12$ premiums
SP might rise after earnings, but IV will likely collapse.
(+ if it hits, I am richer by a couple of Millions & will have to rebalance once again )
(+ bought shares with the proceeds - will help if rebalance is required)

IV might not collapse that much if Tesla is GAAP profitable and we're left waiting on an S&P inclusion announcement that could happen any time, really. Won't catch me writing calls for anything further out than a few days at a time, and wayyyyyyyy above the current price.

 

[Tim S]

Quick observation... every TSLA option in my account is down today. I have calls (bought and sold), puts (sold), short-term, medium-term, LEAPS. They're all down.

 

[ggr]

Quick observation... every TSLA option in my account is down today. I have calls (bought and sold), puts (sold), short-term, medium-term, LEAPS. They're all down.

Yes, mostly true for me too. Volatility has shrunk as everyone expects the stock to close at $1500. Now would be a good time for a bull raid.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wouldn't be surprised if they called those the Model U and Model R so they would have a U R S3XY product lineup

Lol. I think Model 2 is already locked in for the €25K car...

Then if China can mass produce an EV Citicar with Tesla-like standards for $15K, it'll be Hǎohǎo all over the World... And it's name shall be 'Model 1' as in UB#1

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

My short term perspective, is about 3 things ... S&P(Q2 Earnings), Battery Day, Stock Split.
Each one by itself is a catalyst ...

Good points. I expect a Q2 profit to be reported. S&P 500 inclusion ASAP afterward. Then a stock split after that, and not before so as to allow index funds time to buy TSLA at lower fees, since for institutions those are normally charged per share. Battery Day may be a wild card, but a surprise might be lurking there that could be a huge catalyst.

 

[elasalle]

IV might not collapse that much if Tesla is GAAP profitable and we're left waiting on an S&P inclusion announcement that could happen any time, really. Won't catch me writing calls for anything further out than a few days at a time, and wayyyyyyyy above the current price.

I don't like to play with anything under 3 weeks. 3500 is more than 100% increase in 30 days. cheers!!

(+ I have my core shares (4X my initial shares) , and almost 55-60% more in Calls, so i am taking chances here and there, and am willing to rebalance and sell calls further out as required. Calls are also against core shares, but adjustments can be made with the extra 55-60% of Calls)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yes, mostly true for me too. Volatility has shrunk as everyone expects the stock to close at $1500. Now would be a good time for a bull raid.

I added some long calls (not spreads) for an earnings play. Might sell off if we get a nice rise into call next week, or hold if we don't. Some interesting data here:

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1284185868618563587

Bottom line: $TSLA tends to rise in the 3 days (Mon-Wed) before earnings: +10% in front of 2020/1Q print (4/29) and +3% in front of 2019/4Q print (1/29). I expect the same next Mon-Wed in front of 2Q print. +3% is $45. +10% is $150.

 

[MP3Mike]

I wouldn't be surprised if they called those the Model U and Model R so they would have a U R S3XY product lineup

They already have S3XY CARS... And have even used it in a presentation. As they add more vehicles it is going to get harder to keep the joke going.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I don't like to play with anything under 3 weeks. 3500 is more than 100% increase in 30 days. cheers!!

(+ I have my core shares (4X my initial shares) , and almost 70% more in Calls, so i am taking chances here and there, and am willing to rebalance and sell calls further out as required.)

True! I'd be very happy with $3500 in August. Depending on the violence of the movement, I'd take a chance on a hangover and would probably do some profit taking around $3000 and continue if the stock moves up from there, planning to buy back in on a return to earth from the squeeze.

 

[Tslynk67]

The words "paint" and "dry" come to mind, and boy my head is sore from the $1515 resistance...

A quick look at the options and puts/calls at $1500 are almost equal, so new target is $1545 - they don't want a >$1550 close, but would love to tease some more premiums from the optimistic unwashed...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Sure has been quiet this week after Monday's fireworks. I guess this is the calm before the storm. Next week will probably be wild.

 

[traxila]

Quick observation... every TSLA option in my account is down today. I have calls (bought and sold), puts (sold), short-term, medium-term, LEAPS. They're all down.

IV getting squeezed.

To be reversed when / if it moves hard again.

 

[Nocturnal]

After dealing with a rental ICE car in Colorado for 4 days so far I've decided to double my price target on TSLA. So now it's "a lot" * 2.