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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This was the most disappointing part of the presentation. Elon was saying that remote control is probably the solution. It means they haven't worked it out yet. They haven't thought about it that much.
I don't know that it matters at this point, but there are really only two options for a stuck Robotaxi: Sending a driver to get it out or remote control. Sending someone out is the least scalable solution...
 
I don't know that it matters at this point, but there are really only two options for a stuck Robotaxi: Sending a driver to get it out or remote control. Sending someone out is the least scalable solution...
Sending someone out when there's no steering wheel doesn't make much sense, either.

We knew they would remote into RT. It's necessary. They will never make it 100% perfect, Elon has said this before.
 
Sending someone out when there's no steering wheel doesn't make much sense, either.

We knew they would remote into RT. It's necessary. They will never make it 100% perfect, Elon has said this before.

There is still a the corner case of a robotaxi stuck with no or not enough wireless coverage. For those scenarios they may need something like a usb game controller or so.
 
It really seems crazy to me that they still don't make the model 3 in Berlin. Its the smallest car in the lineup and NOT made in Europe?

It was more profitable to import the Shanghai Model 3.

Also:
Position Model 2023 sales 2022 sales
1 Tesla Model Y 254,822 137,608 Mid-size crossover
2 Dacia Sandero 235,893 200,736 Small hatchback
3 VW T-Roc 206,438 180,909 Small crossover
4 Renault Clio 202,942 143,293 Small hatchback
5 Peugeot 208 194,376 206,986 Small hatchback
6 Opel Corsa 188,662 163,861 Small hatchback
7 VW Golf 184,279 177,386 Small hatchback
8 Toyota Yaris Cross 176,685 136,959 Small crossover
9 VW Tiguan 174,267 149,023 Compact crossover
10 Skoda Octavia 161,784 112,776 Mid-size sedan/station wagon
11 Ford Puma 159,778 136,976 Small crossover
12 Toyota Yaris 158,838 175,562 Small hatchback
13 Hyundai Tucson 158,831 150,728 Compact crossover
14 Peugeot 2008 158,571 140,826 Small crossover
15 Dacia Duster 156,556 149,323 Small crossover
16 Kia Sportage 152,342 137,378 Compact crossover
17 Citroen C3 146,008 143,467 Small hatchback
18 Nissan Qashqai 145,476 115,980 (= Rogue) Compact Crossover
19 Renault Captur 145,078 135,066 Small crossover
20 VW Polo 139,761 113,567 Small hatchback

Spot the odd one out.
 
My notes (good stuff):
  • Semi ramp up approved
  • Powerwall 3 ramp up
  • ~200% growth in Tesla Energy
  • 50% of engineering work is software work (this is a moat)
  • Tesla leader in real-world AI
  • Tesla good in chip design: chip in cars is the best for Tesla. Lot of available compute in cars.
  • no longer compute constraint in AI training
  • Optimus progress: 1000 bots working at Tesla in 2025
  • Passenger van?
  • HVAC still in his mind
  • 4680 slowly progress: the cost more than the supplier's today but less thant the supplier's a year ago
  • Lithium refining: is a backup plan
 
This is useful:

I'll paste the content:
Here's the full breakdown of Elon's presentation, including Q&A session, at the 2024 Tesla Shareholder Meeting earlier today.

INTRODUCTION
1:36 FSD improving exponentially
4:04 How robotaxi will work
7:08 Autonomy could add $5 trillion value
8:37 Optimus could add $20 trillion value

PRESENTATION
12:54 Tesla's impact accelerating
15:38 6 millionth vehicle
16:48 Cybertruck
19:11 Updated Model 3
20:02 Model Y bestselling car
20:39 Tesla Semi starting volume prod
22:44 Future products
23:22 Supercharger network
25:44 4680 battery cell production
28:08 Huge energy storage growth
30:39 Software at Tesla
31:56 Real-world AI
32:42 Chips: HW3, HW4, Optimus37:31: AWS-type opportunity
39:21 FSD getting extremely good
43:50 Optimus progress & perspectivesQ&A
51:08 A thanks to Elon
52:28 Regular free trials for FSD
54:10 Disneyland & statistical FSD risk
56:57 Tesla valuation: 10X by 2029
58:07 Referral program
1:00:37 FSD transfers one more quarter
1:02:03 Elon's well-being & security
1:05:08 HVAC for homes
1:06:29 Factory tour for kids
1:08:07 Donald Trump fan of Cybertruck
1:09:24 Interventions for unsupervised FSD
1:10:54 Shoutout to @TeslaBoomerMama
1:11:33 Batteries only fraction of car price
1:15:35 Cybertruck could go international next year
1:19:09 Cybertruck Foundation series
1:19:45 Data collection & compute
1:26:47 Optimus to be equipped with LLMs
1:28:17 Optimus will be generalized
1:31:22 Elon helps accelerate Tesla
1:33:49 Parking & charging close to Starbase
1:35:28 Lithium refining
1:38:03 Suggestion: Deliver Teslas at night
I am always struck by what my fellow "shareholders" don't ask. So no one in that room was curious about future products or a clarification ? What about the van seen in the slide? Instead concerned about factory tours for kids?

Its why I left after Elon finished his presentation. It's hard to take that group of "shareholders" seriously.
 
I am always struck by what my fellow "shareholders" don't ask. So no one in that room was curious about future products or a clarification ? Instead concerned about factory tours for kids?

Its why I left after Elon finished his presentation. It's hard to take that group of "shareholders" seriously.
I understand, but most of the questions were good tho.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: ShareLofty
What would the point of asking that be? You'd most likely get the standard response of "this is not the place/time for announcing future products."
We don't know, Elon was in a good mood and talkative. We discovered some gems about FSD and Optimus. Fascinating stuff.

You never know unless you ask the question.
 
What about the van seen in the slide? Instead concerned about factory tours for kids?

It’s why I left after Elon finished his presentation. It's hard to take that group of "shareholders" seriously.
I struggled with the format. Almost every person who asked a question started by offering Elon their personal gratitude…it gets so redundant. The vote spoke for itself.

Tesla could advise those asking questions ; once given the mic, just ask 1 brief question without all of the informalities. On topic. No story telling.

This shouldn’t be necessary, but clearly without putting some rails in place, we get nut jobs rambling about their personal experiences and giving elevator pitches… The rest of the shareholders in and outside of that room want to hear from Elon and management. Not rando shareholders.

There is still a the corner case of a robotaxi stuck with no or not enough wireless coverage. For those scenarios they may need something like a usb game controller or so.

Or maybe Starlink. They announced with T-Mobile almost 2 years ago nationwide coverage with no dead zones.

Seems to me you’d need to have a data network available anywhere the robotaxi is providing service. But I could certainly be wrong about that.

 
My notes (good stuff):
  • Semi ramp up approved
  • Powerwall 3 ramp up
  • ~200% growth in Tesla Energy
  • 50% of engineering work is software work (this is a moat)
  • Tesla leader in real-world AI
  • Tesla good in chip design: chip in cars is the best for Tesla. Lot of available compute in cars.
  • no longer compute constraint in AI training
  • Optimus progress: 1000 bots working at Tesla in 2025
  • Passenger van?
  • HVAC still in his mind
  • 4680 slowly progress: the cost more than the supplier's today but less thant the supplier's a year ago
  • Lithium refining: is a backup plan
The HVAC stuff obviousy could be big if he stays on it... good related diversification, good for mission and bottom line if can drive innovation there.
 
So relieved that the comp package and Texas move resolutions passed. Now Tesla stands a sold chance of being correctly configured for the next couple of decades, when humanity will solve superhuman AGI and things will get really weird. Capital owners that are placed well stand to gain incredible fortunes from this, but many companies that sleep at the wheel will get crushed.

I strongly believe that "live players" are the ones set to really reap the benefits in the coming years. There aren't a whole lot of those operating in the public markets. Elon is one of them, and assuming we can help keep him paid and content, odds are good that Tesla will be one of the companies that stand at the center of this.

I've been debating what to invest in throughout this transition. Decided on a tiny amount of speculative nuclear power, Tesla as before of course, since they are going for the kind of robotics that is currently hard to reproduce due to data and software. Also considering to move some of my investments into data center owners, under the theory that owning an installed base of chips/computation could turn out to be explosively profitable if there's a qualitative breakthough at turning computation into intelligence.

The reason the Tesla vote was so important in this regard, is that there are a lot of companies unavailable to the public that also have live players. But they are complicated to invest in. It super nice that one of the most promising is publicly traded.