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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Whitney Tilson -- the guy who shorted $TSLA from $35 to $205, blew up his hedge fund in the process, warned people in early 2017 not to bet against Elon Musk and Tesla (see below), and then 2 years later lost a $15,000 bet that Tesla wouldn't earn a profit in any quarter in 2019?
THAT Whitney Tilson?
I was dumb enough to be short TSLA from ~$35 to ~$205 from early 2013 to early 2014 and, after that traumatic experience (by far my worst short ever, almost exactly cancelling out my best long ever, NFLX), haven’t had any position in it since.
I was tempted to get back in on the short side, however, after seeing an in-depth presentation by Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in November (www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf) (I’ve also attached his Dec. letter, in which he shares further bearish thoughts on TSLA). There are many pillars of the short thesis, but if I were to summarize it, I’d quote a friend (not Spiegel):
The fundamental issue remains: If he can’t make money selling a car for $85,000 or more with zero direct competition, how will he be able to make money selling a car for $35,000 or even $45,000 or $55,000 with tons of competition?
<snip>
In summary, today reminds me of early 2013, when the stock was at $35: the company was/is burning a ton of cash, has missed all sorts of deadlines, and there was/is much skepticism about a major new product launch (then: Model S; now: Model 3). Back then, I figured Musk/Tesla would have to pull an inside straight to beat me – but they did. In hindsight, I don’t think it was luck. They were much better engineers than I thought and built a brilliant, innovative car. Tesla is chock full today of even more, better engineers, led by the same two guys, so why would I bet against them now? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… Tesla - Tilson Compares To Amazon And Netflix But Won't Buy Or Short
Whitney Tilson Loses Tesla Bet With Andrew Left, Will Donate $15K To Charities
I was tempted to get back in on the short side, however, after seeing an in-depth presentation by Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in November (www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf) (I’ve also attached his Dec. letter, in which he shares further bearish thoughts on TSLA). There are many pillars of the short thesis, but if I were to summarize it, I’d quote a friend (not Spiegel):
The fundamental issue remains: If he can’t make money selling a car for $85,000 or more with zero direct competition, how will he be able to make money selling a car for $35,000 or even $45,000 or $55,000 with tons of competition?
<snip>
In summary, today reminds me of early 2013, when the stock was at $35: the company was/is burning a ton of cash, has missed all sorts of deadlines, and there was/is much skepticism about a major new product launch (then: Model S; now: Model 3). Back then, I figured Musk/Tesla would have to pull an inside straight to beat me – but they did. In hindsight, I don’t think it was luck. They were much better engineers than I thought and built a brilliant, innovative car. Tesla is chock full today of even more, better engineers, led by the same two guys, so why would I bet against them now? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… Tesla - Tilson Compares To Amazon And Netflix But Won't Buy Or Short
Whitney Tilson Loses Tesla Bet With Andrew Left, Will Donate $15K To Charities
One other differentiator now is not only continued innovative engineering in product, but also in manufacturing - the ability to scale production quickly, predictably, and repeatedly is the breakthrough to the next level that “analysts” still don’t get. It’s more than a traditional car company - wake up bears, hibernation time is over.
Now I lay me down to sleep with visions of Wednesday afternoon dancing in my head...
Better to start low and go up throughout the day.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Story is paywalled
Haha, Mercedes thinks Model S LR's range will remain the same for 18 months.
Haha, Mercedes thinks Model S LR's range will remain the same for 18 months.
ToTheStars
Member
This is awesome. I would instantly get a Model 3 if it came with the octovalve.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
FFS. I drive a 2015 model S. its practical range is about 240 miles. Its fine. I wouldnt pay much at all to increase it. I'd pay for better autopilot, but mercedes iosnt offering that. I'd pay for it to be smaller too. Why are auto companies focusing on range and top speed. What makes people think every tesla owner is frustrated by range?
Also wwhere do I get my free supercharging network with the mercedes? These people are clowns.
Also wwhere do I get my free supercharging network with the mercedes? These people are clowns.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"Gigafactory 3 Phase II: large equipment hoisted into the factory" | Wu Wa
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) Whenever Tesla offers multiple ranges, the longest range is by far the biggest seller.
2) Top Speed is important in Germany.
3) Being big is important in China,USA, and S Korea. The S Class's biggest markets.
4) Model S no longer offers free supercharging. If you are referring to CCS Networks subscription fees to attain best prices per kWh I don't think EQS owners are worrying about pence.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA bucking the macros in the Pre-market:
Cheers!
Pre-Market High:
$1,510.00 +$9.16 +0.61%
(04:48:31 AM)
$1,510.00 +$9.16 +0.61%
(04:48:31 AM)
$1,515.99 +$15.15 +1.01%
(04:56:35 AM)
(04:56:35 AM)
Cheers!
Last edited:
The WLPT range is not EPA range. Significantly inflated.
As if it needed any help futures are almost back to flat now. Closing in on 1520 at the moment
See, the thing is that I don’t like short sellers, and I never will. I will never like Andrew Left. But I respect the sumb*tch because he is always willing to continuously evaluate his thesis, admit when he is wrong, and turn around and try to maximize his profits. He actually went long TSLA after giving up his short. People like Whitney Tilson, their egos are too big and they refuse to turn around after being proven wrong. Tilson could have gone long at any time and made plenty of money, much more than he lost shorting.
As an investor, I learned long ago there is no such thing as pride. There is money, and the will to get money. If you are willing to get money, you never sit there and try to kill yourself fighting against the market like Smeagol. Pride will always go before the fall, so stop having pride. That’s stupid. Period.
Because many people stillt think that you need 1000 km range or you can't travel anywhere. It's still very common.
"I just drove 1000km without stopping in my diesel. Can't do that with your Tesla, can you?" I often hear this.
Of course it's not true, nobody drives like that - but many people think they do.
MartinAustin
Active Member
They simply can't "promise" that! It will either be too expensive to buy, or won't actually have that kind of range, or will be a loss-making vehicle for Daimler. Model S is currently 380 miles on WLTP (on the German Tesla page). More than 435 miles WLTP is a fair target for end-of-2021. I just don't believe they will hit it... their current car does like 259 miles WLTP. Mercedes needs to start promoting what it is actually good at... luxury/interiors. At this stage they are no more than their own Maybach. If Tesla can produce an interior that rivals Mercedes, or at least neutralises the significant differences... Mercedes will be out of bullets. I'm not entirely sure Elon is interested in doing that though... he does whatever sells cars, and as we know, plenty of Mercedes faithful have happily moved over to Tesla for the other aspects. A person rode in the back of my car once. He said "it's nice, but nothing beats the ride quality in the back seat of a Mercedes." Maybe that's true. (for my 2013 car) But lots of real buyers are ditching Mercedes, so it doesn't matter about subjective back seat superiority.
$1516 pre-market. I'm still getting used to a $15 climb only being +1%
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