Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

What does a .30% stock borrow fee mean? is the rate for a day, week month, year. I would like to know what it costs the shorts for holding on.

It's a 30% annual rate, accumulated daily, and paid monthly.

Or .30% - I missed the period

 

[smorgasbord]

After Tesla’s first profitable quarter, there was six month consistent increase in the share price. I envision the same thing with Tesla’s first profitable year.

More important, is Tesla performance contrasted against the automotive industry. My view is that, that stark contrast, will be a greater catalyst than S&P 500 inclusion.

I disagree with this, respectfully.

We all here recognize what's going on, but most of the market does not. I do not fool myself that Tesla's 50% run since Q2 deliveries were announced (and a profitable quarter thus seemed likely) is actual acknowledgment of what only the analyst outliers like Cathie Woods and Chamath Palihapitiya have been saying. I fear TSLA's rise is mostly due to that S&P dynamic.

Battery Day, for instance, may help, but it's unlikely to move Mr. Market the way it should.

 

[printf42]

When you are certain history would repeat, it probably won’t.
(Risking this to age badly though, just saying)

Ok this aged badly, but I am ok with it, I have long learned not to by calls ending in earnings week, instead I buy two week after. If it drops further tomorrow I’ll be very tempted to double down.

 

[Don TLR]

When Elon talked about marketing fact this was something that should be brought up and based on this fire that happened hours ago near the house, I’m near the water tank top right. But it got me thinking.
The last huge fire we had was an auto accident that burned 195,000 acres and took 30 days to control shutting down a major highway causing millions of $ in damages. They’re still fixing the guardrail posts that burned out or just finished. The sooner we get rid of ICE cars we will all be a little safer. That is some of the info about how much safer the cars are

I hit my goal a bit ago and just like the shorts I moved my goalpost, so now closing in on that new goal. It’s going to make retirement a whole lot more fun. At time it was tough listening to all the FUD even from friends but it’s good to hear those old CNBC pieces now laughing.

One comment from here stands out along the way. Roughly quoted saying I have money coming tomorrow and I don’t care if it’s 3** or 3** I’m buying, I used that one lately when I missed a small dip recently, in the end it’s not going to matter and only moved my share price a few pennies each so I’m just going to keep accumulating. Congrats to all the HODL Longs.

 

[ggr]

This board sure likes a conspiracy theory. It’s one thing to blame manipulation for nearly every stock drop (as if a stock can only go up). But believing that the big guys are tanking the whole tech sector to make TSLA go down... that’s pretty far out. I’m waiting for someone to predict that Putin will start a war to sink the share price.

From yesterday's close, TSLA was down 5%, while NASDAQ (represented by QQQ) was down 2.6%. This is "business as usual", with Tesla just 2x. My own call-heavy portfolio was hit pretty hard by the IV crush, but I'd sold all the short term calls (except for one that I want to be exercised for the relatively low cost basis) on Tuesday for a decent profit. The mid- and long-term ones will all build back up over the next few months, hopefully along with the price of TSLA going up too. I'm not worried, it was all part of the plan.

 

[oldTAVguy]

It's a 30% annual rate, accumulated daily, and paid monthly.

Or .30% - I missed the period

So if I short 1000 worth of stock for a year I would have to pay the lender of the shares $300 or $25 per month. Is there any minimum time for the loan of shares?

 

[adiggs]

So if I short 1000 worth of stock for a year I would have to pay the lender of the shares $300 or $25 per month. Is there any minimum time for the loan of shares?

Lessee - 1000 shares * $1500 = $1,500,000

1% of that is $15000, so 1/3 of that is $5000. I come up with about $400 / month for what could be viewed as a $1.5M loan.


I could have gotten a decimal point wrong somewhere in there.


I believe that there is no minimum amount of time for the loan of shares. Interestingly, if you're trading on a short enough window, you'll want to close these positions on Friday as you're paying interest for Saturday and Sunday, even though you can't trade. It's tough to be a short seller

 

[vikings123]

Interesting twitter thread about ETF/Index funds NOT buying TSLA ahead of S&P inclusion. The guy has 460K followers so I think we have to give him some credit. I wonder if today’s sell off was purely macro related.

Either this or the hedge funds feel like they can cause another dip to reload at a lower price. There is never a dull day in TSLA financial world.

https://twitter.com/jonahlupton/status/1286107428120072192?s=21

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This dip was to be expected, pretty much the same as 1Q deliveries day and earnings day. IIRC the following couple days were flat/down and the blasted off the following week.

Makes sense that big boys would expend some effort today to keep euphoria down, then cover starting on Monday.

The slow climb should start Monday and build until inclusion. Lord only knows what happens after that.

The narrative keeps changing from day to day, but the reality has been that anyone looking to buy has jacked up SP quite a bit. No one's selling. That's been true at least the last 9-10 months. Now I expect a good chunk of people to sell on the inclusion bump, but not nearly enough to keep it from getting out if hand.

I'm actually glad to see the narrative and general feeling around the market flatten out today. If a decent percentage of people think the inclusion bump isn't going to happen, that makes it much more likely to actually happen. I was getting worried that everyone agreed, and that's when something this big physically can't happen. Everyone would have already hedged or bought.

 

[Maxstorz]

You think the consolidation at $1500 is already done so we can start the slowly l8nera build up from that new baseline?

 

[Singuy]

Moody's is still years behind the reality of BEVs over hybrids. For instance, they actually said:
"Tesla does not compete in what will be the much larger hybrid electric vehicles [market], nor does Moody's anticipate that Tesla will develop products in that market."

Even the other legacy OEMs, except Toyota, admit that BEVs, not hybrids, are the future.

Moody's also underestimates Tesla's sales growth:
"[Moody's] anticipates Tesla's 2020 sales growth will be in the mid-to-high single-digits -- considerably outperforming the industry, but significantly lower than the company's historic pace."

Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019, and we just heard them affirm they still think their goal of 500,000 is achievable. That would be 36% growth. Even if Tesla only delivers 450,000 vehicles, that's more than 22% growth. To only grow 9% (the high end of Moody's estimate), Tesla only needs to sell 400,575 vehicles. That appears to me to be a slam dunk.


And, of course, they can't resist disliking how Musk operates:
"However, important additional risks are posed by Tesla's governance structure. There is considerable latitude to the company's CEO, Elon Musk, with a board that has a mix of inside and outside directors. In addition, Mr. Musk's executive responsibilities with outside ventures such as SpaceX could tax his ability to adequately focus on Tesla's challenges..."

In other words, they're worried about the one thing that has made Tesla successful so far - Elon Musk.

Crazy stupid if you ask me.

LoL. There's only one person in the world who has not only brought American astronauts to space but also hit profitability with a car company within the last 50 years...but yea sure him needing to multi-task is a major risk...lollololol. It's like how much credibility do you need in order to get it through your thick skull? Moody would downgrade god because there are too many people praying.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It's a 30% annual rate, accumulated daily, and paid monthly.

Or .30% - I missed the period

That's like loan shark rates --- 30%

 

[Unpilot]

Fire sale going on AH...under 1500...won't last long...order before midnight tonight and we will throw in one pair of red satin short short's!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Since we all love anything related to AJ:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Fire sale going on AH...under 1500...won't last long...order before midnight tonight and we will throw in one pair of red satin short short's!

Eh...like we all know...the AH doesn't mean anything....we were all anxiously waiting for Wednesday after close and Elon delivered, too bad we had bad macros today....now we all just look forward to next week and beyond!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

View attachment 568155
I guess we have a few more notches to move up to be investment grade?

I've always wondered...

Why don't these clowns just rate the debt scale from A-Z ? instead of after bad auto-suggested passwords ?

 

[elasalle]

Who'z watching Frankfurt tomorrow

Futures/Pre-Market looking good, so likely we will have some comeback tomorrow

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Jul 23, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Sells Off on Q2 Earnings"

Traded: $38,141,553,281.91 ($38.14 B)
Volume: 24,331,076
VWAP: $1,567.61

Closing SP / VWAP: 96.47%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $280.637B / B173.673B = 161.59%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $251.76
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $153.82
Nota Bene: TSLA exceeded $150B 6-mth avg Mkt Cap on Tue, Jul 21, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 42.4% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.0% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 2.30% of Short Volume (60th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "TSLA sheds the speculators"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Moody's upgrades Tesla's ratings including CFR to B2 and senior unsecured to B3; the outlook is stable.

Moody's upgrades Tesla's ratings including CFR to B2 and senior unsecured to B3; the outlook is stable.

What an absolute joke. Tesla, a high credit risk, after adding 500m to their cash on hand during a pandemic. Up yours, Moody’s.

 

[Krugerrand]

Would we not expect a bigger upgrade from them? More than one level upgrade?

One level? It’s a damn sub-level. The description for B3 & B2 is exactly the same. That must have caused so much discussion and angst amongst the committee. Many sleepless nights, I imagine.