Tried to consolidate all replies to 1 post since the thread is already crazy big
Do you have a source for the 22 mph being typical? I'd imagine it's even slower in say NYC, but it's be a LOT higher here in NC where I live (and pretty much the entire country outside dense urban cities if we're gonna pretend robotaxis will replace lots of "normal" cars too not just in dense cities).
It also appears to ignore that a good portion of the country, especially some of the larger denser cities in the US, are in the north where it's very cold a lot of the year- and efficiency to keep the cabin warm for riders causes a significant range hit (I suppose the Y will do better here than the 3 at least)
It also appears to assume all the RTs will be long-range vehicles... an SR+ already can't make it 264 miles.
Sure, as soon as someone invests the money to build those things.
Which I specifically mentioned as an option in my post.
In fact the option that probably makes the most sense (well, SOME charging stations with an attendent, be it SCs, urban SCs, or just regular 240 service of some kind).
This will be even more needed as you start trying to replace things like trucks, where someone calls an RT to transport a truck full of dirt or gravel or something for them... suddenly someone needs to clean the bed out.
I guess you also missed where I specifically mentioned none of these problems were show stoppers, they'd just require some $ outlay to fix because the infrastructure as Tesla built it for long-range road trips is vastly different from that needed for lots of short-range taxi trips, and even WITH that spend would still easily be a cash cow for the company.
Not really though.
Because a robotaxi can run 24/7. I know uber drivers that only drive a few hours a day. So One RT likely replaces like 3-5 rideshare hail drivers at least.
So cut that number down quite a bit for how many RTs are actually "needed" instead of uber/lyft cars.
(note too your source uses "probably" a lot in citing number of drivers- a quick search shows a pretty wide array of guesses at the real #)
FWIW I don't disagree at all Tesla is well ahead of anyone else trying the vision-only approach (and that that is the ideal approach)- I just disagree with the idea the current HW is sufficient to reach L5. (the fact they've already changed it multiple times since originally claiming it was sufficient seems pretty good evidence they don't actually
know how much is sufficient until they get there.... see also Elon himself saying you shouldn't trust any prediction he makes about a thing he hasn't ever done before- and how many such predictions he's gotten wrong before)
Nope.
I grew up in NY.
I'm very very very familiar with dense urban situations and taxis in those environments.
The fact I'm in NC now gives me the other side of that perspective. (and I've lived in both "cities" in NC, and now "out in the country"). I've also spent time in quite a lot of major cities elsewhere in the US (and western Europe).
There's very very very little in the way of taxis here- because they don't make nearly the same economic sense.
There's SOME uber/lyft presence, not so much close to my house but maybe 15-20 minutes away you can reasonably find one within 10 minutes.... but again massively less than in dense cities. Mostly you need to own a car here.... whereas I think anyone owning a car in NYC is insane.
That said- there's still like 2
million NYC residents who own private cars.
Despite MASSIVE availability of taxis, uber, subways, buses, etc.
That's why I think the idea everyone dumps their cars when robotaxis get here doesn't hold up to the facts.
People like owning cars. Even in places it makes NO SENSE for them to do so.
See above. Owning a car in NYC is
crazy expensive. Parking alone can be more than a car payment in lots of parts of the city.
Yet a couple million people still do it. Despite easy public transit and a very walkable city on top.
So the idea they'll all stop owning those cars once their taxi doesn't have a driver appears just wishful/magical thinking.
Even moreso the folks in less urban areas.
Again- if someone only wants to get from A to B and doesn't care about owning the vehicle or it being a specific vehicle- we'd see most cars being sold being $15,000 econoboxes.... instead of an average new car price in the US of around $35,000, and pickup trucks and SUVs being wildly popular.
See also all the private car owners in dense urban cities with excellent, cheap, public transit- why do they still own cars?
Why would RTs change their mind?
I agree RTs would likely replace SOME private vehicles. There's some % especially where when their existing car is on its way out, going full RT might be a reasonable replacement.
I just think some estimates of how many are wildly, wildly, optimistic. See again how many folks in places like NYC where owning a car makes 0 sense still own a car. Millions.
And increasingly so as you get outside dense urban cities.
So I agree with your points 1-3.... the question is- where I live for example I'm roughly 15-20 minutes from any retail other than a gas station type store.... I'm ~30 minutes to a couple of decent sized cities... and 45-60 minutes from several other major cities.
But the population density is so sparse there's no high speed internet available. (HURRY THE HELL UP STARLINK!)
I wouldn't ever consider replacing my car with a robotaxi unless 1-3 were all true.... not just at my house, but anywhere I'd be likely to travel TO so I can get back easily... but I don't see the economic model where someone buys a $40,000 robotaxi and then has it sit within 5 minutes of my house for the maybe couple of trips a day they'd ever get from me and my very sparse neighbors sitting there.
The fact it's CHEAP only works for the guy who paid for the RT if it's also making trips often.
Easy in LA, Chicago, Atlanta, etc downtown.
Less easy in the burbs.
Pretty hard in the "country"
