Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

Knowing our luck, the S&P will announce inclusion as of next Friday, but then add that they gave the heads-up to the funds immediately after the earnings call and they all acquired what they needed already.

Imagine how annoying that would be...

S&P 500 inclusion is developing into a non-event; my basis for that statement, is the continuous manipulation since Q2 results. The next significant catalysts will be battery day and Q3 P&D numbers. Each of these events beyond the control of market makers and hedge funds.

The battery line at Fremont will be proof of concept for Tesla’s Terafactories and will reveal the end of constrained production.

2020 will Tesla’s inflection point — now measured in weeks.

 

[Khamul]

WSB has the goods again! I can't figure out how to embed this, but it's very much worth a click on a boring sunday.

 

[UkNorthampton]

errr... same source lists TSLA at 0.98- which is certainly "near" 1.

I don't think anybody here'd agree the company is worthless though.

Oil and gas has a lot of companies that only make economic sense when prices are high- lots of them will be going away and fast.

That doesn't mean the whole industry will.

Even if Tesla continued bumping production 50% year over year for a while going forward (likely)- and the "competition" finally shows up in large numbers (significantly LESS likely)... there'll still be lots of gas cars sold for years to come.

And lots of stuff other than gasoline still uses FF and will for some time yet too (including rubber and plastics on cars)

My mistake, I took equity to be market cap, not share equity. I'm knackered at the moment.

From same source, hoping this gives some insight into what is probably one of the strongest / biggest Oil & Gas companies:-

Exxon Mkt cap 183.67B
Exxon total liabilities for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 were $174.342B, a 7.44% increase year-over-year.
Exxon long term debt for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 was $46.563B, a 145.06% increase year-over-year.

Exxon cash on hand for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 was $12.576B, a 198.5% increase year-over-year.
Exxon total assets for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 were $361.495B, a 0.21% increase year-over-year.



Tesla Mkt cap 270.73B
Tesla total liabilities for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 were $27.411B, a 8.33% increase year-over-year.
Tesla long term debt for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 was $10.460B, a 6.89% decline year-over-year.

Tesla cash on hand for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 was $8.615B, a 69.49% increase year-over-year.
Tesla total assets for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 were $38.135B, a 19.65% increase year-over-year.


The point I'm trying to make is that many oil companies are worse off than Exxon and their debts will overtake their ability to service them. A write down of assets would be a danger to many. Are Exxon's assets truly worth $361B in the current and future environments? I don't know the names of US oil companies which might be in a worse position, I'm guessing fracking/tar sands ones - so looking them up and understanding their true financials is beyond me.

Tesla's debts/liabilities look good in comparison to market cap. Is that a fair point of view?

 

[Fred42]

I just saw on Tesla's website that Germans, Belgians and others can order the Y, and it says: "The start of production is planned for the beginning of 2021." The beginning of 2021, wow. Is that new?

 

[Frank Einstein]

I just saw on Tesla's website that Germans, Belgians and others can order the Y, and it says: "The start of production is planned for the beginning of 2021." The beginning of 2021, wow. Is that new?

I'm in Austria and have my eye on getting a Y (it'll be quite an upgrade from my bicycle) -- says production at the beginning of 2021. It still said mid-2021 last time I checked a couple of days ago.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Again- if someone only wants to get from A to B and doesn't care about owning the vehicle or it being a specific vehicle- we'd see most cars being sold being $15,000 econoboxes.... instead of an average new car price in the US of around $35,000, and pickup trucks and SUVs being wildly popular.

See also all the private car owners in dense urban cities with excellent, cheap, public transit- why do they still own cars?

Why would RTs change their mind?

I agree RTs would likely replace SOME private vehicles. There's some % especially where when their existing car is on its way out, going full RT might be a reasonable replacement.

I just think some estimates of how many are wildly, wildly, optimistic. See again how many folks in places like NYC where owning a car makes 0 sense still own a car. Millions.

And increasingly so as you get outside dense urban cities.

Can you think of an example where transport costs for suburbanites is dropped 90% and it didn't lead to a fundamental shift in transport dynamics? Or the fact that people in RT's get hours of their day back? This is fundamentally reducing the cost to live for the vast majority of the population - it's like the rise of no-frills airlines or the invention of the subway.

I just can't see how you think that provides a only moderate impact.

At the very least, econoboxes disappear for virtually everyone who doesn't need to store a lot of stuff in their vehicle. All the 2nd and 3rd household vehicles disappear where people are not using them to get to work. Parents stop buying dangerous vehicles for their kids.

Comparing private car ownership v public transport is a little unfair because you are getting nowhere near the same quality of product. But private car ownership vs taxi is much closer and the economics are probably not that different. When RT comes around you get close (or better if your free time is valuable) to the same product for a far cheaper price.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

LOL on a Sunday...Throw back to 2016....4 years later and we are still waiting for them to produce anything of significance.

 

[RobStark]

ARK models are using robotaxi at $2.50/mile

 

[SunCatcher]

Jack Rickard brings it on again; and right off the batt kills a fly with his salt shooter gun. Other good input as well...

"A housefly is a precious creature in God's sight, and part of his holy creation. I just sent that one to Jesus, to let him sort it out, because I don't like 'em."

 

[Krugerrand]

Part of the issue is a lot of folks are just guessing at a ton of factors in order to get to whatever conclusion they prefer.

It’s always so refreshing when someone is so self aware.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Here's another guess.

Any American who won't give up their gun won't give up their car. Ever. So there's a decent chunk of the population right there.

Any American who lives in the fire ridden canyons in California will never give up their car. A lot of them living in various other areas where there are natural disasters like tornadoes, floodings etc won't ever give up their personal car/truck.

In Europe that'll be a smaller group as we in most areas don't have as many natural disasters but it will still be a sizeable group.

Being optimistic about FSD is one thing. Thinking that a majority of people that have a personal car today will give that up even in a decade is way to optimistic.

 

[printf42]

The FSD talk is getting out of hands, no one is saying it would 100% happen in Elon time. But not modeling TN is like not modeling App Store in 2008, you can find good reason to dismiss it, but you would be very wrong.

I believe it will come sooner or later, I don’t know how much impact it will be beside it’s going to be huge. It would also have deeper impact in city planning, how and where people live etc.

I am sensing less of a member got defensive and more of someone trying to push an agenda. My finger is hovering over ignore button.

 

[MC3OZ]

ARK models are using robotaxi at $2.50/mile

My best guess would be $2.50 per mile initially, dropping 10 cents per mile every 2-3 months reaching around $1 per mile after 3 years.
Then a much slower drop to 40-50 cents per mile over say 5 years.
Factoring in cleaning, tires, insurance, app support, admin etc, 40-50 cents may be a floor.
The other reason 40-50 cents may be a floor is, at that price, people care more about the quality of the service than they do a lower price.
Sure they might be budget operators who eek out a living on razor thin margins, but the trade off may be some inconvenience, cars not well cleaned, longer waits, older cars.. buggy app..

No one has ever said Robo-taxis will be the solution for 100% of the population, but they have the potential to accelerate the retirement of older ICE vehicles... sometimes no car is better than a cheap old car.
Many 2 car families will become single cars families, Robo-taxis eventually reducing new car sales by around 50% is my guess.

But longer term there will be a generational change, teenagers can start using Robo-taxis from age 12-14 with perfect safety,,and parents will be glad children aged 16-25 are catching a Robo-taxi home after a night out.
Why does that young city dwelling person who used Rob-taxis ages 14-25 and can get one in 10-15 minutes every time they need one, need to bother with private car ownership and getting a licence. Sure some will get a licence but many will not bother.
Some people without a licence will still want to own a cars or perhaps even multiple cars.. but many will not.

It is far easier to give up something you have never had...

IMO Telsa a pursuing Robo-taxis mainly because of the mission and to benefit humanity more generally, it will be profitable and a steady source of recession proof income, but it will not necessarily dwarf all other income streams... Sure it will do billions of miles per year, but the bigger question is the margin on those billions of miles. The value of a largely recession proof income steam can not be overstated.

In a recession giving up private car ownership for a Robo-taxi, is a move many would make.. especially if they have just lost their job.

 

[Creekstalker]

The FSD talk is getting out of hands

I'm pondering either bleaching my eyes or even looking at the Coronavirus thread.

 

[FrankSG]

That's great.

It still appears to be a number pulled out of thin air though.

Average Uber speed was 27 mph in 2015 up from 25 mph.

https://www.sherpashareblog.com/201...nger-and-faster-but-are-they-more-profitable/

 

[ggies07]

Jack Rickard brings it on again; and right off the batt kills a fly with his salt shooter gun. Other good input as well...

"A housefly is a precious creature in God's sight, and part of his holy creation. I just sent that one to Jesus, to let him sort it out, because I don't like 'em."

around the 40 minute mark he talks about Nikola....love his dry sense of humor. "We don't spend our time talking about losers." hahahahaha.

 

[traxila]

S&P 500 inclusion is developing into a non-event; my basis for that statement, is the continuous manipulation since Q2 results.

I understand the frustration. This manipulation you refer to is known as Wall Street. Same deal to be found whichever stock you examine.

BUT,

I have a hard time seeing how the required purchase of tens of millions of shares of TSLA can be developed into a non event. It will occur and if some crazy s&*t does not go down, and it is somehow a non event, I will be laying on the ground shocked. Stick poking, no movement shocked.

Eh, what the hell do I know anyway....

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nobody ever gained anything by dreaming small.

... except Max Planck.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

WSB has the goods again! I can't figure out how to embed this, but it's very much worth a click on a boring sunday.

I've actually seen Rogue One and as such the ending of the movie has me concerned for Elon's final outcome

 

[Thekiwi]

Just finished listening to the 3-part elon musk interview podcast from last week. A bit odd.

In first episode when Elon was asked about stock price, he wasn't exactly hiding his disbelief and you could pretty much hear his shrug. Definitely wasn't providing any support for the current stock price.

He seems to not really follow EV competitor output, which I found simultaneously awesome and worrying lol. Said he didn't really follow that sort of thing and was asking the interviewer what was going on in terms of competitor shipments and sales.