Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

It is not possible to have done better.

It certainly was possible. Maybe Elon wouldn't have been as distracted if he wasn't dealing with the Solar City stuff, maybe they could have hired better engineers with more relevant experience, etc.

Or are you arguing that there is no possible way in the world that they could have handled the Model 3 ramp better?

Elon even says that the merger likely delayed both Tesla and Solar City by more than a year:

 

[S3XY]

$1650.71

1. We closed really close to $1650. Obvious manipulation is obvious.
2. We closed slightly above $1650. I am pleasantly and inconsolably aroused.
3. We closed below $1700. Sorry, no ballet dancing in short shorts for y'all today.
4. Had we closed above $1700, (2) + (3) in combination would have been a bit embarrassing. I'm glad fate showed mercy upon you all, sparing your eyes so you didn't have to witness THAT show.

I've decided that even though we didn't (3.) close above $1700 today but we did have an ATH close, that I would post that picture after all. I hope you all are happy.

 

[woodisgood]

Name ANY solar company that has a x7 increase in share price in 4 years.

Only because you asked....ENPH. Around $1 four years ago. 70x return. Not a solar installer though so not a fair comparison.

RUN was trading around $5 four years ago, now at $45 due primarily to a merger. It’s merging with VSLR, which traded around $3 four years ago and is now around $25.

 

[Knightshade]

View attachment 576461
Ex-Tesla worker agrees to sanctions over document dump

Martin Tripp agrees to pay Tesla $25k in legal fees and STFU.

I mean why not- it's not like it's his own money

 

[Opus BC fan]

Name ANY solar company that has a x7 increase in share price in 4 years.
Name ANY auto company that has a x7 increase in share price in 4 years.
Name ANY battery company that has a x7 increase in share price in 4 years.

 

[SpaceCash]

So you’re kind of 180-ing on the idea that the split could have this effect. I find this an interesting development.

Not at all sir.
I have remained extremely consistent on this subject and any confusion is a result of your misunderstanding

 

[Sudre]

It certainly was possible. Maybe Elon wouldn't have been as distracted if he wasn't dealing with the Solar City stuff, maybe they could have hired better engineers with more relevant experience, etc.

Or are you arguing that there is no possible way in the world that they could have handled the Model 3 ramp better?

No I am arguing that you can not do what you are doing. Just make up crap out of thin air. Everyone can do that all day. I bet the fairies could have sprinkled dust on the Model 3s but you personally refused to believe in fairies so they could not exist. Do you want to make anything else up? Maybe, probably, might have? Stick with facts. Tesla succeeded and is worth more now than their competitors.... well except ENPH but they do not sell cars too. OH man. I just got and idea. I should sue ENPH because they don't sell cars. If they only sold cars they could be worthy more. Man these what ifs go on forever.

 

[MP3Mike]

No I am arguing that you can not do what you are doing. Just make up crap out of thin air. Everyone can do that all day. I bet the fairies could have sprinkled dust on the Model 3s but you personally refused to believe in fairies so they could not exist. Do you want to make anything else up? Maybe, probably, might have? Stick with facts. Tesla succeeded and is worth more now than their competitors.... well except ENPH but they do not sell cars too. OH man. I just got and idea. I should sue ENPH because they don't sell cars. If they only sold cars they could be worthy more. Man these what ifs go on forever.

I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with, I'm just sticking to the facts. Tesla shareholders are suing because they thought the Solar City merger hurt Tesla and should have never happened, which even Elon admits that it did hurt Tesla:

I'm not saying that the suit has merit or should have been filed.

 

[TNEVol]

Please list all countries that you consider are the developed world?

Almost everyone. Are you kidding?

 

[Knightshade]

No I am arguing that you can not do what you are doing. Just make up crap out of thin air. Everyone can do that all day. I bet the fairies could have sprinkled dust on the Model 3s but you personally refused to believe in fairies so they could not exist. Do you want to make anything else up? Maybe, probably, might have? Stick with facts.

The facts are Elon himself said he made mistakes and could have done better


For example he said

Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake.

Nor is that the only example (see the logistic issues with lack of transport early on he admitted was a mistake he then went on to fix... or the insufficient amount of NA service available he admitted was foolish and he was then going to work on fixing).


In fact- a willingness to move quickly, make mistakes, and then- crucially- recognize, admit, and correct those mistakes are a key factor in his success.

Not only that he'll typically use what he learned from his mistakes to do a significantly better job the next time around (see the 3->Y manufacturing improvements, or the factory improvements in GIgaShanghai over Fremont (and GigaBerlin over that- and presumably GigaAustin over THAT).


A mindless defense of everything he ever did as incapable of being improved on is exactly the opposite of the philosophy by which he operates.

 

[UncaNed]

Those of you with high price GTC sell orders to stop the shares from being lent out:

1) What price did you choose? LIkes $5,000? More/less?
2) ETrade doesn't do forever GTC. 30 or 90 days are default, but I can set something a year or more out. Thoughts?
3) Is this really worth the bother?

TIA!

What bother? Just enter a sell order for all your shares at $9,000. Takes a minute and can't hurt.

 

[Curt Renz]

I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with, I'm just sticking to the facts. Tesla shareholders are suing because they thought the Solar City merger hurt Tesla and should have never happened, which even Elon admits that it did hurt Tesla:

View attachment 576479

I'm not saying that the suit has merit or should have been filed.

Who are the Tesla shareholders suing? Themselves?

 

[Sudre]

I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with, I'm just sticking to the facts. Tesla shareholders are suing because they thought the Solar City merger hurt Tesla and should have never happened, which even Elon admits that it did hurt Tesla:

View attachment 576479

I was looking for the reasoning to why Tesla was worth less or slowed down by the merger. You are not providing that. The reason Elon did not settle is because the Unions suing him do not know what he is actually talking about because he never speaks clearly... and to that extent even you are potentially putting words in his mouth.

Let me translate. When Elon testifies all he has to do is clarify what he meant..... altho I can't know what he meant with the way he speaks so I will throw out one example, "But I just didn't realize the battery line supplier would completely fail and the Model 3 program would be so difficult. And so the Model 3 program was just a big distraction towards the solar side and sort of offset a lot of the solar business by more than a year, year and a half maybe."

Companies can not know the future. If the Model 3 battery line had actually worked and the supplier had not failed solar products might have ended up ahead of Solar City schedule. There is no way Elon or the board knew the Model 3 ramp was going to have the vendor side fail.
"The primary production constraint really, by far, is in battery module assembly," Musk said on a conference call with analysts..." from a Business Insider article in 2017.

Do not cut out the part about it making strategic sense for the companies to merge.... because it did and does. It did not hurt Tesla. It slowed the Solar City portion. IF the Model 3 battery line had not failed miserably they would have executed better altho not perfect. There is no way Elon could read the future so at the time of the merger no malice was intended.

The board member settlement I am reading in short says (what all settlements say) the Plaintiffs believe their accusations to be true but like money more than proving their case so they are going for the money and the lawyers will go chase more ambulances.
The defendants still say the accusations are false but don't want to waist the money and resources defending against a frivolous lawsuit so they are settling to get back to work at making cars and solar products.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Aug 14, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Adds $200 this Week to Close at New ATH"

Traded: $20,848,193,193.60 ($20.85 B)
Volume: 12,651,860
VWAP: $1,647.84

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.18%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $307.63B / $188.65B = 163.07%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $280.52
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $173.06
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap on pace to unlock CEO comp. 3rd tranche Sep 11, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.5% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 47.5% (48th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.69% of Short Volume (55th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Late-day move to 1650 Strike price"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Jack6591]

Who are the Tesla shareholders suing? Themselves?

If your investment outperforms the overwhelming majority of the market, do you have standing to seek legal remedy?

“The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

 

[MC3OZ]

These are just to avoid a 13 day FTD reporting rule according to @Artful Dodger . I have not been able to confirm the existence of this rule.



I don't think that's what @Artful Dodger was talking about in his original post. And I don't see why the "record date" of the stock split would impact by which day stock sales need to be settled.

I just think the original naked short had to be a on market order to move the market.
The other side of that trade is a customer who placed a buy order with their broker, paid for the share, and has what looks like a Tesla share sitting in their broker account. (On the assumption small retail traders are not informed of failure-to-deliver)

If there is any mechanism that would case this customer to find out they don't actually have a Tesla share, that is a problem.
If they sell their share (or some portion of their holdings after the split) that might get complex.

So the tidy and professional way to handle things is tidy up all of these Naked Shorts before August 24. If there is some way this all is handled automatically in the background and the customer never .knows, then it isn't a problem.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon even says that the merger likely delayed both Tesla and Solar City by more than a year:

View attachment 576476

The attachment you posted does not support that Elon said the merger likely delayed both Tesla and SC by more than a year. It says it delayed "a lot of things" without specifying what those things were.

 

[MP3Mike]

Who are the Tesla shareholders suing? Themselves?

Tesla, the board of directors, and Elon. Tesla and the board, minus Elon, have already settled.

 

[printf42]

Weekend ATH cheers!

And with that, Elon tweeted about something I believe people are not paying enough attention to:

Tesla is developing a NN training computer called Dojo to process truly vast amounts of video data. It’s a beast! Please consider joining our AI or computer/chip teams if this sounds interesting.

Here is my ATH hyper bull case:

• Tesla is going to become the new Google+AWS for the era of software 2.0

What is means:

• AWS generated 35B revenue last year and contributed more than half of AMZN’s profit, it’s a very lucrative business model.
• I think Cloud computing for Software 2.0 (aka AI in hype word terminology) would be even bigger pretty soon.
• Tesla would have opportunity to provide services on top of their physical world understanding, also able to provide computing 2.0 as service.

Here is why Tesla:

• Cloud computing for AI is still an area everyone is fighting for, but no clear winner yet.
• Tesla with FSD chip and now Dojo will be one of the best platform for inference and training for image/video understanding, aka physical world understanding.(THE best if you ask me)
• Tesla would have millions of eyes on the streets all the time. With Tesla’s data source lead, they will become the leader in real world understanding. Google’s attempts for physical world understanding for example street view etc would look like toys in comparison.
  
• Tesla with the vast amount of real world data, combined with battle tested hardware would be able to attract best talents to join (their mission statement helps too). This alone would be a very important factor for success.

I suspect when Tesla decided to design their own FSD chip, they already have this in mind. Marginal cost for producing chips is very low compared to R&D costs, once they have the capacity to build data centers with their own chip, the margin would be astonishing.

I assign this to a hyper bull case, not because I doubt Tesla’s capability of doing it, only because it seems to not align well with the current mission.

It might happen when Tesla expand their mission again though, let’s see.

 

[FrankSG]

I just think the original naked short had to be a on market order to move the market.
The other side of that trade is a customer who placed a buy order with their broker, paid for the share, and has what looks like a Tesla share sitting in their broker account. (On the assumption small retail traders are not informed of failure-to-deliver)

If there is any mechanism that would case this customer to find out they don't actually have a Tesla share, that is a problem.
If they sell their share (or some portion of their holdings after the split) that might get complex.

So the tidy and professional way to handle things is tidy up all of these Naked Shorts before August 24. If there is some way this all is handled automatically in the background and the customer never .knows, then it isn't a problem.

Agree with that there has to be a non-market maker real buyer on the other side.

What you're describing is basically a broker taking on a naked TSLA short position as result of a FTD. The broker in this case will be on the hook. But again, the split changes nothing about the dollar value of this debt. It simply goes for 1 share @ $1,500 to 5 shares @ $300.