Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

8/21 - Max Pain - 1600
~ 12K Open Interest, 26 K Volume - Calls @2000

-- 2K will likely not be breached this week

I know, $2000 doesn't seem to make a lot of sense, but given how little we actually know about what's going on behind the scenes, I don't think you can put odds on it with any confidence. I've seen enough to know anything is possible and even $2300 or more would not surprise me one bit!

The trading action today makes me think there is still more forced buying to come (before 8/21 when all shareholders of record get accounted for). It looks to me, now that the price has risen to an attractive looking selling point for many, those who need to buy have decided to risk pausing the buys to see if they can shake out some shares without causing them to sky-rocket. It looks like a game of who will blink first. A floor is being created just under $1900. It may even drop somewhat lower. But I think a new, higher level will be reached before Friday with the distinct possibility of another big bull run before the week is out.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Again, the ARK Invest base case share price is $7,000 in 2024, assuming no FSD at all!

....

No.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[UkNorthampton]

If you actually look on that chart and see where $7,000 falls, it doesn't really represent a baseline forecast. Ark's belief is TSLA will fall either (1) $2,700 give or take, (2) $15,000+. The decisive factor is autonomy.

In other words, they don't really have a "middle ground" prediction for TSLA. One of their analysts admitted this in an interview.

IMO, their non-autonomy forecast is too low. Tesla will become a $1T company even without autonomy. I expect Ark's "Median Target" number to at least double from $2,700 when they revise this valuation chart from January (which is ancient history).

The impression I have is that (similar to the newly converted and floundering Adam Jonas) is that ARK CAN'T SAY what they REALLY THINK. They'd be laughed at, their models have to be conventional in some way. When I add up all the possibilities, I think that even if a fraction work out, TESLA will do incredibly well.

I've distilled my thinking into buy shares, avoid selling except to survive and wait. At some point, I can sell a few shares to live on for the rest of my life and set up family. Not sure how long the wait will be, but not too long at the current rate. I'm comfortable with having debts that I never would have have had before. Quietly confident.

There's always a risk, but the downside is not huge, not with so many red hot irons in the fire, each enough to dominate an industry - many of these industries don't exist yet. Even as a salvage / stripping of technologies and brands, I'd get my original money back (probably).

 

[ZeApelido]

Thinking about the timeline for Dojo has me wondering: how can Tesla be close to FSD when they are still years away from having their supercomputer? If they could really reach FSD by -- say -- end of 2021 then what would be the point of Dojo?

Then thinking about the scale of Dojo -- it will be a competitive supercomputer whether or not it ranks first -- if Tesla believes they need Dojo then what does that imply about pre-Dojo progress?

Which reinforces my FSD skepticism. ARK's high valuation of Tesla is predicated on true autonomy (robotaxi network) by 2024. No, I'm not losing any conviction (especially because I never had any to begin with when it comes to FSD) but if Dojo is currently at sim levels using FPGA what does that suggest about timeline before it can actually be made? And how long will it need to be operational before it can produce FSD? I realize the latter is an open ended question, but I would think someone familiar with chip design and production could hazard the former.

Don't get me wrong, I love my autopilot and am looking forward to (hopefully) having access to the rewrite this year or early next. But I just don't see how its plausible to have everything lined up and done by 2024 for a full self driving robotaxi network.

No one - not Elon, not Karpathy, not computer vision experts or other machine learning experts, certainly not analysts and journalists - know exactly how long it is going to take and what level of training / compute / data it will take for Tesla to achieve FSD at each level of competence and accuracy we may define.

The conservative (but expensive) approach is to constantly innovate and just simply assume you have to keep going for what you think is a better approach to get you better and better accuracy long term, even if your current approach turns out "good enough". This seems to be the approach they are taking and I approve.

What's interesting to think about is we think of Tesla or others having to match a certain spec of accuracy in the current unbounded case of driving on any road in order to deploy FSD, but in reality that assumes none of the infrastructure changes.

I bet there will be some small cities maybe counties that will have discussions with Tesla about what the 'weak links' are in the current FSD performance and work to improve signs and labeling so that robotaxis could operate within certain regions.

Think about these stoplight borders being put up around here. If these and similar boarders around signs made Tesla's FSD accuracy high enough to operate safely, there could be motivation from the cities to improve them. And thus we could see robotaxis in some cities in say Florida in a year or 2.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

ARK ran 10 scenarios, 6 with no autonomy, 4 with. The no-autonomy scenarios resulted in 2024Q4 SP predictions ranging from 0 to $3400. The autonomy scenarios ranged from $15,000 to $22,000. ARK also ran a probability analysis which gave each scenario a probability estimate. This was used to compute an expected value ($7,000) based on results from all ten scenarios = sum(share price x probability). So you can't really say the expected value is autonomy or no-autonomy - it's a statistical construct of scenarios including both.

Well there is some conflicting info coming from ARK then because I have heard Cathy Wood say "base case without including any autonomy". But I also see their charts that explain their "base case" as a probability matrix that is a blend of their bull and bear cases. So maybe they changed their methodology recently. Or, maybe they have run it both ways.

 

[ZeApelido]

Yo Shirley is there something you want to say?

https://twitter.com/CB4KKER/status/1295760631405187072

 

[saniflash]

still suffering from PTSD from that day in Feb (?) where they knocked us down from ~970 in a matter of seconds.

given the volume now is low, anyone else fearing a bear raid towards the end of the day?

asking for a friend.

 

[Mo City]

The impression I have is that (similar to the newly converted and floundering Adam Jonas) is that ARK CAN'T SAY what they REALLY THINK. They'd be laughed at, their models have to be conventional in some way. When I add up all the possibilities, I think that even if a fraction work out, TESLA will do incredibly well.

I've distilled my thinking into buy shares, avoid selling except to survive and wait. At some point, I can sell a few shares to live on for the rest of my life and set up family. Not sure how long the wait will be, but not too long at the current rate. I'm comfortable with having debts that I never would have have had before. Quietly confident.

There's always a risk, but the downside is not huge, not with so many red hot irons in the fire, each enough to dominate an industry - many of these industries don't exist yet. Even as a salvage / stripping of technologies and brands, I'd get my original money back (probably).

No. What Ark does is base their forecast on two different outcomes of Tesla's decisive variable: autonomy. This is logical.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Belgium, universal healthcare AND zero capital-gains on personal trading accounts (exception on dividends)...

And bloody good beer, to boot!

All true. Lovely place from my limited time there. Shocking roads in places, just like the UK.

UK - you can contribute £20,000 a year into an ISA per adult plus £9,000 per child. Then pensions (you get gross amounts in, so more than you put in as cash).

No tax of any kind from ISAs (AFAIK) - no capital gains, income etc . It might take a few years to build up a sum, but once you do - it's great. As long as you don't invest in UK companies....

 

[StealthP3D]

still suffering from PTSD from that day in Feb (?) where they knocked us down from ~970 in a matter of seconds.

Considering how far we have come from the last price peak, how could you possibly still be suffering PTSD from the last one?

 

[Tslynk67]

still suffering from PTSD from that day in Feb (?) where they knocked us down from ~970 in a matter of seconds.

given the volume now is low, anyone else fearing a bear raid towards the end of the day?

asking for a friend.

No, the scenario now is totally different. It's all they can do to keep it below $1900, they're struggling like hell here.

 

[Tslynk67]

All true. Lovely place from my limited time there. Shocking roads in places, just like the UK.

UK - you can contribute £20,000 a year into an ISA per adult plus £9,000 per child. Then pensions (you get gross amounts in, so more than you put in as cash).

No tax of any kind from ISAs (AFAIK) - no capital gains, income etc . It might take a few years to build up a sum, but once you do - it's great. As long as you don't invest in UK companies....

Nice, but I've €1m in my personal core-shares account...

Love t eh UK, of course, and am English, of course (from Shrewsbury). Went back a few years ago to do a tour of the relatives, with the kids and I have to say that the people, everywhere, were super-friendly, unlike Belgium, where people tend to be miserable (despite the beer).

Strongly considering retiring to Cornwall...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice, but I've €1m in my personal core-shares account...

Love t eh UK, of course, and am English, of course (from Shrewsbury). Went back a few years ago to do a tour of the relatives, with the kids and I have to say that the people, everywhere, were super-friendly, unlike Belgium, where people tend to be miserable (despite the beer).

Strongly considering retiring to Cornwall...

'where people tend to be miserable' - You should visit some parts of the US

 

[Unpilot]

Dammit lunch time is over....I mean even the Algo bot's should be back at their desk's by now...right?

 

[jerry33]

It's the investing equivalent of blaming avocado toast and iPhones for the housing crisis. Millennials get unjustified blame for so many things.

For more than 2K years, young people have been blamed for whatever happens.

 

[GrandEnigma]

For more than 2K years, young people have been blamed for whatever happens.

At least us Millennials can blame the Zoomers now. They are finally starting to enter the work force and look what happened to 2020.

 

[lafrisbee]

Saudi Arabia Has Sold Nearly All Its Tesla Stock -- Barrons.com
1:00 PM ET 2/4/20 | Dow Jones

By Ed Lin

Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund, essentially liquidated its Tesla stock in the fourth quarter. That means that if the fund didn't buy more this year, it has missed out on the remarkable rise in the shares of the electric-car maker.

The fund sold 8.2 million Tesla shares (ticker: TSLA) in the quarter ended Dec. 31, slashing its stake to 39,151 shares. Public Investment disclosed the sale in a form it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.

Tesla stock has caught fire as of late. One firm said that shares could reach $7,000, and as of Tuesday afternoon, Tesla stock had more than doubled to $904.94. The S&P 500 index has only tacked on 2% year to date.

Public Investment had been Tesla's fourth-largest shareholder, according to S&P Capital IQ.

The fund didn't respond to a request for comment on the stock sale.

On its site, Public Investment says it uses "standardized procedures and guidelines to govern investment decisions, focused on building a diversified portfolio which achieves attractive, risk-adjusted returns over the long-term."

I just wanted to do a little comparison of when the stock shot up to $980 six months ago...
I did see that the talking mule stated he would have to reevaluate cashing out at $1200/share (I think I got that right?)

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, tribe, it's frustrating, I know, but 3% up following an 11% up day, well that's OK - call it "consolidation", if you will. Looks like highest intraday ATH, low and closing ATH at this stage, no?

And we still have tomorrow!

 

[Artful Dodger]

still suffering from PTSD from that day in Feb (?) where they knocked us down from ~970 in a matter of seconds.

given the volume now is low, anyone else fearing a bear raid towards the end of the day?

asking for a friend.

A famous American General once wrote:

"The time to take counsel of your fears is before you make an important battle decision. That's the time to listen to every fear you can imagine! When you have collected all the facts and fears and made your decision, turn off all your fears and go ahead!"

George S. Patton
​

If you did your research, and you're still in TSLA at this point, don't take council of your fears. Long isn't just a description; it's an approach to investing.

Cheers!

 

[WarpedOne]

This spring is gonna brake ...