Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Again, the ARK Invest base case share price is $7,000 in 2024, assuming no FSD at all!

Their aggressive timeline that DOES include FSD by 2024 has a share price of $15,000.

Now, you have to ask yourself, which analysts have been eerily correct on Tesla over the last two years? And which firm has analysts that are experts in their respective technological fields (like AI and Super-computing) instead of traditional Wall Street stock analysts? That's right, the answer is the same for both questions - Ark Invest!

Now you need to ponder why that might be.

I thought my $2300 SP by 2023 was agressive.
Seeing the SP today, I feel I was conservative.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Making $$ is never a mistake....You just make a little less if you sell $TSLA within the next 2-3 years.

And at the same time I paid 50% in taxes just because I felt generous to help for the government pandemic economical support

 

[Tslynk67]

And at the same time I paid 50% in taxes just because I felt generous to help for the government pandemic economical support

Belgium, universal healthcare AND zero capital-gains on personal trading accounts (exception on dividends)...

And bloody good beer, to boot!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

And at the same time I paid 50% in taxes just because I felt generous to help for the government pandemic economical support

Another reason not to sell in the short term....at least you did your part as a responsible citizen

 

[StealthP3D]

If you actually look on that chart and see where $7,000 falls, it doesn't really represent a baseline forecast. Ark's belief is TSLA will fall either (1) $2,700 give or take, (2) $15,000+. The decisive factor is autonomy.

I see what you're saying but I was responding to someone who said "ARKs base case is not too far off where we are right now". If you look at ARK's chart, their "base case" is $7,000 in 2024. They even label it as "Expected Value $7,000 This projection is our base case for TSLA’s stock price in 2024 based on our probability matrix."

IMO, their non-autonomy forecast is too low. Tesla will become a $1T company even without autonomy.

That's because the upper and lower scenarios differ in much more than simply autonomy/no autonomy. The lowest scenario is their "bear" case which makes all kinds of unfavorable assumptions about Tesla as a business that have nothing to do with autonomy.

That's why it's labeled "bear case"!

 

[wipster]

You know, it seems just like yesterday when we were amazed at how quickly the TSLA SP was in the 1700's jumping confidently to the 1800's. And now the 1900's are solidly within our grasp. And the weird thing is, I'm looking forward to the 400's on Friday and you know what will happen then.

Did I wake up yet?

 

[Snerruc]

Robinhood nonsense needs to stop. The typical account size is between 1-5k. Most of these kids on Robinhood owns fractional shares. Even if these kids went all in Tesla on Robinhood, at 500k share holders we are talking about 1.5 million shares. 99.9% of these kids can't afford the option premiums. So honestly that likes 30 mins worth of trading Tesla at current stock prices. But it's those fractional share holders right? Everyone on Robinhood can dump Tesla all at once right now and we probably will see a 20 dollar drop.

Well, there are at least a few of Us oldtimers on Robinhood. You might want to change your estimates.

 

[Rammstein]

More volume than yesterday, a few margin calls being covered?

I really don’t know if we can sustain this all the freakin’ way to the old splitterino, it’s crazy!!

And just skip closing in the $1700’s, that would be sweet.

Regarding selling, wifey has found a house she wants for around €1m, which is about what we have in core shares (trading account another €500k with calls and LEAPS), so now the “discussions” begin. I don’t want to sell out so low, I prefer (as said a few weeks back) to get €2m, or more. Plus it would need renovating, so would like several €100k for that

We’ll see, might get there by end next week at this rate...

Could you get a mortgage instead of paying it off right away? I would do that if I were you.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I thought my $2300 SP by 2023 was agressive.
Seeing the SP today, I feel I was conservative.

Not to single you out, but at the end of 2019 and throughout pretty much Q1 and some of Q2, it was very apparent how much the 5 yr trading range for the stock had affected people's view on how the stock would trade, even here. Lots of investors made the big mistake of thinking the past dictates how it'll trade or what the company will/should be worth in the future instead of focusing on what the company is doing and where it's going to be at.

Just think about how much revenue Tesla will be making on a quarterly basis by 2023. I don't feel like doing the exact math on the top of my head, but probably somewhere in the ball park of 40-50 billion......per quarter. And yet you were convinced that the company would only be worth around 400 billion at that time.

If you believe in the company's growth ramp and projection and are confident in their ability to execute(as they have been doing very well over the past 4-5 quarters), then this share price action now is just affirming proper valuation on what Tesla the company is doing right now.

 

[Nocturnal]

Again, the ARK Invest base case share price is $7,000 in 2024, assuming no FSD at all!

Their aggressive timeline that DOES include FSD by 2024 has a share price of $15,000.

Now, you have to ask yourself, which analysts have been eerily correct on Tesla over the last two years? And which firm has analysts that are experts in their respective technological fields (like AI and Super-computing) instead of traditional Wall Street stock analysts? That's right, the answer is the same for both questions - Ark Invest!

Now you need to ponder why that might be.

3500k is the non-FSD case. 7k is expected but not one of their possible outcomes, 15k is the lowest FSD case.
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

Agreed. I did that by giving myself my P3D. I strongly recommend if your going to sell stock and you don’t have a Tesla car then give yourself a treat and buy one.

If I didn't own a Tesla I would be a far weaker long.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You know, it seems just like yesterday when we were amazed at how quickly the TSLA SP was in the 1700's jumping confidently to the 1800's. And now the 1900's are solidly within our grasp. And the weird thing is, I'm looking forward to the 400's on Friday and you know what will happen then.

Did I wake up yet?

The struggle is real!! Work production macros have definitely been on a downward trajectory since last Tuesday for me.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You are wrong about that. ARK's "base case" 5-year share price target is based on zero FSD/robo-taxi revenue.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

ARK ran 10 scenarios, 6 with no autonomy, 4 with. The no-autonomy scenarios resulted in 2024Q4 SP predictions ranging from 0 to $3400. The autonomy scenarios ranged from $15,000 to $22,000. ARK also ran a probability analysis which gave each scenario a probability estimate. This was used to compute an expected value ($7,000) based on results from all ten scenarios = sum(share price x probability). So you can't really say the expected value is autonomy or no-autonomy - it's a statistical construct of scenarios including both.

 

[Intl Professor]

Sunday Monday happy days......Tuesday wensday happy days......

these days are ALL happy days

.....remember that

I've told students for years, "these are the good old days." But of course I aways left out, " but it depends on your scale of measurement."

 

[Andy O]

My take is that Telsa will need the goverment's co-operation not only on autonomous driving approval but also general road rules to make autonomous driving a bit more easier to achieve.

Additionally, although FSD will have to learn to handle almost all current roads, I think governments will soon begin to feel pressure to adapt their road standards so that self-driving cars can safely navigate them.

 

[Open Interest]

There has been some speculation on the board that there will be only light trading next week ahead of the split. I am holding some October $2000 calls and wondering if we will see an IV crush during this time. I realize this usually happens after news, but I am thinking low volume might work the same way. I would like to hold until Battery Day. Any thoughts about how calls might act during this transitional time?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Another reason not to sell in the short term....at least you did your part as a responsible citizen

Not to single you out, but at the end of 2019 and throughout pretty much Q1 and some of Q2, it was very apparent how much the 5 yr trading range for the stock had affected people's view on how the stock would trade, even here. Lots of investors made the big mistake of thinking the past dictates how it'll trade or what the company will/should be worth in the future instead of focusing on what the company is doing and where it's going to be at.

Just think about how much revenue Tesla will be making on a quarterly basis by 2023. I don't feel like doing the exact math on the top of my head, but probably somewhere in the ball park of 40-50 billion......per quarter. And yet you were convinced that the company would only be worth around 400 billion at that time.

If you believe in the company's growth ramp and projection and are confident in their ability to execute(as they have been doing very well over the past 4-5 quarters), then this share price action now is just affirming proper valuation on what Tesla the company is doing right now.

I guess I was being conservative with all my entourage making fun of my 3 years waiting to get my Model 3 and people thinking the Model Y would arrive in 2023. Repeated doubters had their influence.

 

[StealthP3D]

Millennials get unjustified blame for so many things.

Well if they weren't so lame in so many areas, maybe they would get some respect! LOL! Just kidding!

 

[Off Shore]

Can we have a minute of silence for all the people who asked "Is it too late to get in at $1000?"

Wait two weeks.

 

[azaz]

Volume is dead since the morning, no one is selling or buying.

If S&P inclusion comes this week the rise would meteoric. RSI and other technical indicators still look good and not comically overbought.

there’s plenty of room to run and what looks like a dearth of sellers

I say all this as I sold September calls on Friday, they are up 120% since then so the above is not an advice

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla: Future Battery Supply Business" | SMR