Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Elon previously talked about GF3 stage 1 costing $2bn so when Elon mentioned on the Q4 call that stage 1 capex would only be $0.5bn to get to 3k per week

Most recent statements AFAICR were $0.5 bn to get to 3K /week, $2 bn for "full" GF3.

The first payments will appear on the Q1 quarterly report, as will the Chinese bank loans.

 

[tinm]

That is untrue. I have personally met two mobile techs (in the past month) and one told me last week they just hired another one (on that note I have had nothing but great experiences with the mobile service rangers). I was inquiring about Albuquerque but it might be true there is 3 for the entire state. That said, NM doesn't have many Teslas compared to some other states, but their numbers are still growing quickly. Tesla definitely needs to hire more mobile techs and they must be planning to since Elon said today that service is his number one priority this year.

Hoping that bill goes through. Fingers crossed.

Great to hear. I was still under the impression we only had one mobile tech who actually lived in NM and didn’t have to drive long distances from neighbiring states like the Rangers did up to a few yrs ago. If that has indeed changed, I sit happily corrected.

 

[S3XY]

** SNIP **

But the really brillant move is indeed to make the 3 refundable within 7 days and 1k miles. Everybody driving it once will rather give his grandma back but not the 3. Its just that much joy you gonna miss and after a week most people emotionally won't be capable to return it even if they should.

Today is an important day for Tesla as a company as well as all us investors. That day will not be forgotten and its no overstatement to call it history in the endeavor to transform transportation to sustainability.

Tesla just moved from a premium and luxury manufacturer into a mass producer and mark my words Teslas EVs will get even lower in price from here.

I agree that most people will end up keeping the car but then I was wondering what they would do with a car that is now considered "used" and has up 1,000 miles on it? Well maybe this is an indication that the Tesla Network is not too far off. Tesla could just take that returned car, add it to the network, and make money off of it that way.

 

[RobStark]

You’d now have to be a fool to order a Bolt. $500 more for less range than the Standard+ Model 3.

Me thinks Chevy dealers will have to offer a bit of a discount to move Bolts off the lots. GM might have to put some cash on the hood too.

IF GM wants to sell Silverados,Sierras,Escalades, and Suburbans without buying a *sugar* load of credits from Tesla then they have to move some Bolts too.

 

[neroden]

That way he can say he was correct no matter which way the SP ends up. Brilliant.

The difference between analysts and investors is that analysts have no scratch in the game. Much like the reporter and the soldier, one comments on the fight and the other is in the fight.

As investors, we have to make a choice in what to do with our assets. Hanging onto cash is investing in the one asset that is guaranteed to lose value, every single year.

....unless there's deflation. Hasn't happened since the 19th century (because deflation is terrible and governments try really hard to avoid it now), but in the very big picture, remember, deflation is a possibliity.

Analysts can sit idly by and criticize every company, and still make money.

Mmm-hmm. The same is true of fund managers and financial advisors who invest Other People's Money...

 

[Curt Renz]

The rest of the auto industry is still stuck in the early 20th century with internal combustion engines and franchised dealerships with brick-and-mortar stores. As at first booksellers learned about Amazon.com, and then other retailers learned, the auto world is similarly being turned upside down by Tesla.

Consumers today have learned to appreciate the convenience of online shopping. Modern auto buyers know how to research online before buying. Some may first want to drive a friend’s Tesla, but that is not really necessary after doing research and then buying a car with a 7-day return policy. The old school franchised dealership model cannot deal with this. But the states are forcing the established automakers to keep their dealers. Tesla is now end-running them on this. With their dealership burden and dependence on internal combustion engines for what had been sure profits, most of those automakers may soon go the way of buggy whip makers.

Those with contrary vested or click-baiting interests may howl FUD about what Tesla did today. But I expect today’s new policies will insure Tesla’s continued dominance in the EV field, which may soon be the only automobile field.

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla earlier had a 3-day return policy. They may have learned that returns are minimal, and may have developed means for detecting most frauds.

The other thing is that they have left a $35,000 deposit, initiated insurance etc. As I understand it, they buy it but with the option of a return. It is not a "try it for a week" and then buy it if you like it. Again, if I have it correctly.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon says the pricing is not going to drop

View attachment 381709

Lol, do consumers what him to donate his organs to make this move happen too? They just decided to lay-off some retail staff to make it happen.

Tesla is unleashing hell on any future competitors.

 

[Fact Checking]

Actually [and I'm a Tesla owner and mega-fan], guiding for 350k to 500k production is not the same as "will build 500k". There's a HUGE difference between a range of 350k to 500k and just plain 500k - the range leaves you speculating on production - "will build 500k" does not.

Apples to oranges: first tweet said 500k total vehicles: S+X+3.

CC guidance said 350k-500k Model 3's only, and if we combine that with 70k-100k S+X we get a guided range of 420k-600k for total vehicles. (With some fuzz for deliveries vs. production)

The middle of that range is 510k, so Elon's first tweet was in fact a bit lower than the middle point of the Cc-call guided range.

 

[RobStark]

How long will the 220 variant last?

My guess long enough for all the reservations holder to order one if they want one.

 

[neroden]

OT

I love the explanation of the negative learning curve. In a nutshell, the more we learn, the more we realize how much more costly it is than we previously imagined. To understand how a learning curve can go negative more generally, it may be helpful to consider the Dunning-Kruger effect.

The global growth of nuclear power generation occurred in the mid-1980s. I would submit that the peak of Mt Stupid was reached around 1980.

March 28, 1979, actually. Three Mile Island. Funding dried up instantly; only projects already in progress continued, and not all of those. Nuclear power was already on the decline on April 25, 1986 when Chernobyl exploded.

It was this excess of confidence that emboldened so much growth at the time. But as more was learned, confidence plummeted. And as a consequence the need to build in a lot more safety, redundancy and durability increases the cost faster than what an ordinary learning curve could offset. So the net effect is a negative learning curve as the state of art transitions from the peak of Mt Stupid through the Valley of Despair.

Yep!

Due to inertia, we're still operating the nuclear reactors designed in the most overconfident period -- really stupid, really unsafe designs -- since they happen to have already been built. Examples include the totally deranged ice condenser designs. Perhaps the only reason they haven't blown up is that it is completely obvious that they are unsafe, even the workers know they are totally unsafe, and so they're probably more careful than they were with the Fukushima, Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island designs. The Fukushima clones, like Nine Mile Point, are probably more likely to blow up.

 

[RobStark]

For the record.

Thumper, Dec 1, 2018
On the topic of a metal roof section as a cost saver for the 3, I don't think it could be a cost reduction.
1. Requires new stamping die for one special part. $
2. Requires press run time. $
3. Requires painting which can't be done with the rest of the body because it's a separate part and adds to VOC allotment. $
4. Requires a different headliner. $
5. May require different robot handling and different adhesive
to install. $
6. Must be matched to the correct car as it goes down the line adding complexity and inventory headaches. $

Conclusion; not happening ever.

 

[Krugerrand]

Am I the only one who sees a mountain of slightly used Model 3's from people with no intention of keeping the car?

There’s going to be some who think it’ll be cool to ‘buy’ the car, put on 999 miles and return it just for poos and giggles. How many depends on the ratio of scum buckets to non-scum buckets on the planet. I am undecided how many that is on any given day, at any given moment. I do think tomorrow my reality ratio expands on the scum bucket side of the scale when certain posters return to tell us how much trouble Tesla is in now.

 

[RobStark]

Am I the only one who sees a mountain of slightly used Model 3's from people with no intention of keeping the car?

People going to go through the hassle of financing,buying and registering a new car for a free week rental?

 

[Krugerrand]

100% agreed. Maybe I missed it but what do you think Lathrop is for?

Castings.

 

[JRP3]

350k to 500k production is not the same as "will build 500k".

Apples to oranges: first tweet said 500k total vehicles: S+X+3.

Actually said around 500k. Words matter.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’m not worried about regular people returning their slightly used Model 3s but I am worried about fraudsters doing this. Hopefully Tesla has a good anti fraud program in place...

This crossed my mind, but not everyone can pull together $40k to make this purchase happen. It’s a lot of work, corrination as well as the wait for your refund. While there are a few hundred of desperate shorts that may try to do this. I think Elon will turn the dealership model upside down due to this policy, look at Costco’s return policy and what it has done for them. No haggle, hassle free. This will garner a lot of attention, especially from those who would never consider a Tesla in the first place.

By the way. A test drive before puchase will void this policy, so no returns possible after a test drive. This is meant to go after states that don’t allow Tesla stores, it’s quite genius and should garner a lot of headlines, or free advertisement.

 

[BBone]

I agree that most people will end up keeping the car but then I was wondering what they would do with a car that is now considered "used" and has up 1,000 miles on it? Well maybe this is an indication that the Tesla Network is not too far off. Tesla could just take that returned car, add it to the network, and make money off of it that way.

I know my service center could use more Tesla loaners. Maybe will come back as just another loaner which they can use anyways.

 

[Remus]

I am so happy that I bought my LR RWD model 3 when there was only one option. If I were to make a decision now I would spend days going back and forth, and spend months after my purchase regretting either paid too much or did not get enough!

I think this is super bullish. But I think it would probably take about 6 month for the market to realize it.

 

[lascavarian]

My WAG is that the battery packs contain the same number of cells, but the 220 mile version has cells that aren’t 100% to spec. There are manufacturing variances and during the cell testing process, they find cells that are lower spec. Tesla already does this for motors.

I understand you are guessing but from what I understand, if a cell is bad then it causes problems such that if there were poor cells, they would be out of circuit. Jack Rickard has tested a few packs from wrecks and they are balanced with high precision. Mixing good and poor cells together is a nonstarter if you need a high performance pack.

As for motors, Tesla selects cool running motors for performance units and they get these motors by binning the parts which results in highly matched components with minimal heat production. Same motor but runs cooler and therefore can handle more power without an overheating component. This is my understanding.