Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mobius484]

It's actually a brilliant piece of PR on the part of Shanghai. Because it's Tesla they're dealing with - one of the most controversial story-stocks on Earth - the entire business world will be watching to see how this turns out.

It’s a brilliant play by Tesla. I called this long ago... you have China help build the next GF, cause they are crazy at taking on massive engineering tasks, then you set the bar and throw the gauntlet with the results... hey Ohio/Kentucky, wanna build a Gigafactory for trucks? China built it in 6 months.. just thinkin’....

 

[N5329K]

For private aircraft, including Elon's, the optimal speed varies less than it does for the large airliners for two reasons. First, as fuel burns off they climb, up to 51,000 feet for the G650 and others, but the large airlines stay lower

I used to define "optimal speed" as the nautical miles per hour cruise achieved by the airplane you're looking to buy next, whatever airplane that happens to be.
It's a bell curve, though, and optimum slopes back down as you come to redefine "having a good time flying" in favor of the "good", rather than the "time."
Robin

 

[winfield100]

OT
Thank you
I suspect we are both age cohorts somewhat of mr bonestell, who depicted a lot of astronomical paintings, just a teensy tiny bit younger
He did a lot of illios for magazine F&SF
OT
(Ducks)

@AudubonB @KarenRei
This one looks like it..........<====

 

[BornToFly]

I hope I don't regret it. I just sold a bunch of covered calls with 335 SP for next Friday. I don't think we will be over 335 for two reasons: Uptick rule will no longer be in effect tomorrow, so I think the SP will drop below 300 tomorrow. Also, Tesla usually take the stairs up, and the elevator down. So I think it will take a few weeks, especially in the current macro environment, to get back up to 335.

Well that didn't take long.... I broke my own rule of never selling calls after a drop, because I thought the shorts were going to drive the SP below 300 (some people here got me too focused on the uptick rule), and I thought the government shutdown was going to put uncertainty into the market. I had "made" around $50k in the last month selling Puts and Calls, but I maybe giving half or more back by Friday. We need to stay in the 334 range until Friday afternoon! Please, somebody write some poetry! Preferably as re-written lyrics to a classic song for maximum SP effect!

P.S. - I have a great money making opportunity for the members of this forum. We need to crowdsource an account where I am able to sell OTM covered calls each week, and then use the money to buy them back at a loss each Friday. That will guarantee that the stock rises 10% each week until we hit 2,000.

 

[schonelucht]

Not going to lie, it would be disappointing if the $35k Model 3 will only exist in China.

 

[KarenRei]

Not going to lie, it would be disappointing if the $35k Model 3 will only exist in China.

Won't happen.

Remember what Tesla is doing right now. Tesla is only selling higher-end Model 3s in China at present. They don't want people to wait until GF3 opens before making orders. Obviously. So they're reminding people that GF3 will only make low-end ones, and that the high-end ones will always come from the US - so there's no reason to wait.

It's just basic marketing.

 

[Thekiwi]

Shanghai's SR RWD Model 3 is going to be like the Volkswagen was in 1938. They are going to sell hundreds of thousands... millions even! Basic family transportation (for middle class I guess)

Not sure that is likely - Even the SR model 3 will be quite a bit out of the reach of the average Chinese middle class family, so don’t think it would ever be a “people’s car” like event.

But that’s ok, it doesn’t have to be. The top hundred million is more the target market in China for Tesla I suspect.

 

[Thumper]

POI this afternoon I got into a discussion in a waiting room with two older guys (my age) who drive pickups. They are exited about EVs and would really like a Rivian. One guy knew a lot about EVs and had even seen the vid of the X pulling a pickup off of a Supercharger. He volunteered that he doesn't get why anyone would block chargers. These guys are totally ready for EV trucks when they can afford one.

 

[Thekiwi]

Some people are getting a bit flustered about the likelihood of a natural disaster potentially hitting the Shanghai Tesla factory.

It is a low probability event, and even if it unluckily does occur - Tesla will have other factories (USA, eventually Europe) to cover production for the china market for the months it will take to get Shanghai operating again. Likewise, Shanghai will be able to help cover production for other markets if something unexpected happens to a US or European location.

 

[KarenRei]

Some people are getting a bit flustered about the likelihood of a natural disaster potentially hitting the Shanghai Tesla factory.

It is a low probability event, and even if it unluckily does occur - Tesla will have other factories (USA, eventually Europe) to cover production for the china market for the months it will take to get Shanghai operating again. Likewise, Shanghai will be able to help cover production for other markets if something unexpected happens to a US or European location.

I don't think we should downplay the risk of the site getting flooded or a typhoon hitting. They're very real. That said, they can also be mitigated. I assume Tesla will be proactive rather than assuming that Shanghai's flood control system will keep them dry, and elevate all valuable equipment that can't withstand some time submerged. I also assume that they'll design the structure for Cat 5 hurricane winds. There's too much valuable equipment in there not to. Musk already knows to respect hurricanes; SpaceX is no stranger to Florida, and neither is Tesla with respect to superchargers, stores and service centres (Tesla really did a heroic effort after Harvey and Irma).

 

[AlexS]

POI this afternoon I got into a discussion in a waiting room with two older guys (my age) who drive pickups. They are exited about EVs and would really like a Rivian. One guy knew a lot about EVs and had even seen the vid of the X pulling a pickup off of a Supercharger. He volunteered that he doesn't get why anyone would block chargers. These guys are totally ready for EV trucks when they can afford one.

wow I didn't know about this video. in case anyone is interested

 

[Drumheller]

Actually good Bloomberg article:

Tesla’s Life After Hell: 7 Charts Show Musk on Firmer Footing

Also, key section:

"All analysts surveyed by Bloomberg now predict that Tesla will turn a profit in the fourth quarter, with an average estimate of $206 million on a GAAP basis. That’s a major reversal from April, when analysts’ consensus was for a fourth-quarter loss of about $234 million. The change in expectations for Tesla’s 2019 free cash flow are even more stark, flipping to about $837 million from negative $795 million as of early May. "

We now have our numbers. Don't let FactSet BS anyone this time.

Thank you! Please repost this after the results are out so we can compare to the BS the media spins after Q4 earnings call.

 

[ZsoZso]

Actually good Bloomberg article:

Tesla’s Life After Hell: 7 Charts Show Musk on Firmer Footing

Also, key section:

"All analysts surveyed by Bloomberg now predict that Tesla will turn a profit in the fourth quarter, with an average estimate of $206 million on a GAAP basis. That’s a major reversal from April, when analysts’ consensus was for a fourth-quarter loss of about $234 million. The change in expectations for Tesla’s 2019 free cash flow are even more stark, flipping to about $837 million from negative $795 million as of early May. "

We now have our numbers. Don't let FactSet BS anyone this time.

I am sure all those analysts will follow up with a substantial price target raise in the next few days to reflect the change of their expectations going from $800 million loss to $800 million profit for the next year. Obviously, they can't stick to their low-ball PTs in light of such about-face!

(although, I will not hold my breath if you don't mind...)

 

[S3XY]

Ah yes, the gains engineering has made in this regard,

So in other words the first three castles are known as "piles".

 

[HG Wells]

Some people are getting a bit flustered about the likelihood of a natural disaster potentially hitting the Shanghai Tesla factory.

It is a low probability event, and even if it unluckily does occur - Tesla will have other factories (USA, eventually Europe) to cover production for the china market for the months it will take to get Shanghai operating again. Likewise, Shanghai will be able to help cover production for other markets if something unexpected happens to a US or European location.

Hopefully the PLC's and other electronics on the line are mounted higher than is typical. Seen flooding and lack of backup software.

I remember one location that had an old PLC where the power was off for a week due to construction. Battery backup memory, battery died.
They had no idea there was a program in it. OEM who wrote it was out of business for 5 years.

Computers and PLC's have gotten too reliable. People don't make backups like they use to.

Make at least three backups at three different locations. Don't count on the cloud.

Anybody use CIMPLICITY software? I teach a very nice class. 20 years of Cimplicity experience.

 

[KarenRei]

Key "Soft Brexit Deal" vote next Tuesday (a week from now). There's a lot of skepticism about it actually passing. Expect increasing demands for a new "three option" referendum if it fails. Debate about the deal starts on Wednesday. The government is starting a series of radio commercials on Tuesday morning, ostensibly to answer questions the public may have about the deal, but which hard Brexit proponents accuse of being a ruse to frighten people about a hard Brexit in order to get them to accept the deal.

May hopes for EU assurance before Brexit meaningful vote

Mid to late next week should be very interesting on the Brexit front. Anything that makes it look like a hard Brexit is more likely should hurt markets. Anything that makes it look like a soft Brexit or no Brexit is more likely should boost markets. I would expect that an initial market reaction to a failed vote would be negative, but if it looks like a new referendum is likely, that sentiment should reverse.

 

[anthonyj]

If Elon really wants to stick it to the shorts, he’ll announce ER for this Wednesday...

 

[Wnuk]

Found this interesting

 

[KarenRei]

Doesn't necessarily mean customer cars. But still interesting.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

GF3/Shanghai will be SR only with the new std rge pack. The MR produced in the USA uses the same pack as the LR, but is depopulated to cut costs. There is no reason to duplicate the LR/MR pack production line in Shanghai when they will sell every one of 500K SR Models 3/Y each year.

Remember, Elon also said Shanghai SR production will supply the Region. So that likely means Korea, Japan, Australia, generally SE Asia.

Local sourcing of 2170 cells was also annouced by Elon a while ago, with multiple suppliers including Panasonic. There is no reason to expect inferior quality, the chemistry is Tesla'a IP, and the magic is in the sauce (and the robots).

Cheers!

I included MR as a possibility only because I had seen a rumor someplace that the MR was going to start using a pack design based on the SR pack. If that doesn't happen I agree it will be SR only in GF3. I forgot to mention that reasoning.

As for the cells, I didn't mean they would be trash, just might not be the Tesla/Panasonic magic sauce (if Panasonic doesn't want to license that out to other manufacturers, since they both understand the IP as I understand it). I doubt they would be more than a few percent less capacity / charge rate / etc worse than GF1 cells, if they go without the magic sauce. If they're going to use multiple suppliers though it makes sense to get an agreement to allow this, not just for GF3 but eventually GF1 (i.e. so that they could bring in LG or Samsung to spin up some lines at GF1 to make cells with the same identical interchangeable chemistry). I am hopeful that is the route they would take.