Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Observation about Shanghai's current mayor, who's been so supportive of Tesla:

Ying Yong - Wikipedia

"In June 2014, he was named deputy party chief, overseeing party affairs and the municipal party school. In September 2016, he further obtained the office of vice-mayor. This was considered highly unusual, as deputy party chiefs do not usually hold deputy government positions simultaneously. The move was therefore was interpreted as grooming Ying for higher office, likely the future mayor of Shanghai.[1] On 20 January 2017, Ying Yong was elected as mayor of Shanghai. Ying was the first mayor since Zhu Rongji to have spent the majority of his career outside of the municipality. Observers have noted that Ying is likely slated to further promotion.[2] In 2017 he was elected a full member of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China."

 

[KarenRei]

As for the cells, I didn't mean they would be trash, just might not be the Tesla/Panasonic magic sauce

Musk has stated that they would compensate for any deficiencies, if any should prove present, by incorporating additional cells.

 

[neroden]

OMG, 23 pages?... <they see if they can catch up>

 

[neroden]

View attachment 366673
Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter

Vgrinshpun is a genius. I would never have figured that one out. (Here I was assuming the benchmark 3-month LIBOR!)

 

[Fact Checking]

if it looks like a new referendum is likely

A new referendum is highly unlikely, because the Brexit clock will run out before it can be held: fastest estimate is 8 months, but 10 months is more realistic due to legal challenges. The EU has already made it clear they are not going to extend the clock for a new referendum.

The only 3 options possible for Britain are:

• The 1993 deal, (staying in the EU)
• The 2018 deal, (soft Brexit)
• No deal (hard Brexit - this is the default outcome if Britain does nothing)

One of the above three options is going to trigger on March 29.

Anything else, such as a new referendum or a "renegotiation" of the 2018 deal is not going to happen.

 

[neroden]

According to the croundsourced data (Tesla Model 3: Europa Bestellungen/Europe Orders) Europe is at 14638 orders. The number was up to aprox. 22k because of some wrong data from Finland.

I simply flat-out wouldn't trust the crowdsourced data to mean anything at all. US data followed the reservation numbers with some patterns which I predicted; Europe data is going to too. This is some data collection artifact.

 

[neroden]

"Essential" is naive hyperbole.

No, it's *legal jargon*. Something I would expect you to understand.

The Trustee can reject any contract, including one with Calpine.

Nope. You haven't ever followed a utility company bankruptcy, have you? The Trustee's actions are *subject to the oversight of the PUC* (among other governmental regulators). The Trustee does not get to overrule the PUC; the PUC gets to overrule the Trustee.

Maybe this is your basic mistake in understanding. Public utilities have pretty convoluted legal structures.

PUCs are about regulated utilities being allowed to pass on rate increases to customers;

They're about a lot more than that, including "public necessity and convenience", and that's all I'm going to say about that.

Anyone who thinks TE's receipt of payments related to Moss Landing will not be impacted if PG&E does indeed file for protection may get an education.

Arrogant idiot. I know this stuff. You don't. The only risk would be if CPUC changes its mind, which it could. Any bankruptcy trustee will defer to CPUC.

Tesla might get paid late, sure. (Or paid by the state government, depending on the final outcome.)

The state can literally order the company to do things and spend money based on public necessity, regardless of what the bankruptcy trustee wants. (The money would be... accounted for later.) At this point the governor and the legislature and CPUC appear to be on the same page -- the bankruptcy trustee would never dare to fight them.

If CPUC decides that no batteries are needed at Moss Landing for grid security and no contract with Calpine is needed either, then sure, the battery contracts could be cancelled. (Perhaps if CPUC decides that everyone is using much less electricity due to energy efficiency, or something.) That was not my understanding of CPUC's opinion.

 

[Fact Checking]

I simply flat-out wouldn't trust the crowdsourced data to mean anything at all.

The reason this particular effort can be trusted for the time being is that Tesla appears to be generating order invoice IDs sequentially. This makes the "highest reported ID" conservatively approximate number of Model 3 orders in every EU country.

(The bad number from Finland was probably found by seeing a too large gap in the sampling.)

It doesn't have the uncertainties of VIN sampling.

 

[KarenRei]

A new referendum is highly unlikely, because the Brexit clock will run out before it can be held: fastest estimate is 8 months, but 10 months is more realistic due to legal challenges

Numerous major political figures in the UK have publicly disagreed with this sentiment. Over 100 MPs have already signed on to a policy of supporting a second referendum. Far from a majority, but of course the vast majority have not committed themselves either way in advance of voting on May's proposal.

FT's analysis of timing is:

"Would there be time to hold a second referendum before exit day in March 2019? The UK would have to seek an extension of the Article 50 process from Brussels. Many EU experts believe Brussels would agree to this. However, a referendum to resolve the UK’s status vis-à-vis the EU would almost certainly have to be held before the European elections in late May next year."

The only 3 options possible for Britain are:

• The 1993 deal, (staying in the EU)
• The 2018 deal, (soft Brexit)
• No deal (hard Brexit - this is the default outcome if Britain does nothing)

Yes, those are the three options that would need to be voted on.

 

[Fact Checking]

Numerous major political figures in the UK have publicly disagreed with this sentiment.

The UK is not the decision maker and has no power to extend the clock: it's the EU, and the EU made it clear they are not renegotiating, nor waiting for a referendum with uncertain wording and uncertain outcome. (Which is the right EU decision.)

Over 100 MPs have already signed on to a policy of supporting a second referendum.

These UK political figures still talking about a new referendum are disinformed, delusional or are grandstanding.

It's similar to the Greek EU referendum that was mooted by the time it was held.

BTW., the January 15 vote will very likely go against the UK government, which makes a no-deal Brexit the most likely outcome currently.

 

[neroden]

Chinese economy is not doing well. They'll be coming to the table soon, though, I think they're already sitting at it. The shutdown will be over within a week or two I bet. It's no biggie just political posturing on both sides. The need for security is obvious. Obama and Hillary advocated for a wall within the last decade or so, but the Dems seem to have forgotten that.

Ummmm.... no, they didn't. Please go searching for citations, you won't find any. Stop inhaling the fake news.

(BTW, we already have a border wall on all the parts of the border where it *makes any sense whatsoever*, like cities -- we don't have one in the middle of the Rio Grande or the uninhabitable desert because that's stupid)

 

[UncaNed]

If the area is subject to earth quakes which I don't know, soil liquifaction might become an issue. In the SF financial district they drive to bed rock because of this risk since the area is built on fill.

Soil liquefaction - Wikipedia

 

[neroden]

Looks like Exon may be in trouble for public climate change denilles while internally accepting it.

The Supreme Court refused Monday to take up a case in which Exxon Mobil Corp. is trying to stop Massachusetts’s demand for documents from it in a climate change investigation.

Supreme Court rejects Exxon appeal in climate case

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-e...me-court-rejects-exxon-appeal-in-climate-case

While this was the obviously correct decision, there are so many crooks on the Supreme Court now that I have to say I'm relieved.

This is just Exxon trying to hide its internal documents. They're going to have to reveal them. This will reveal that they knew they were causing catastrophic climate damage, concealed it, and lied to the public about it.

This will make the damages cases against Exxon a lot easier to win, though unfortunately it still doesn't guarantee that they will be won. Since the total damages are astronomically high, on a very large number of different theories, I think this just adds another nail to help guarantee the ExxonMobil bankruptcy. I predicted they'd declare bankrupcy before 2030 -- I predicted it quite some years back

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon and this Japanese billionaire are now buddies:

Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa pens most retweeted post of all time after offering cash to random Twitter users

New board member?

 

[Fact Checking]

However, a referendum to resolve the UK’s status vis-à-vis the EU would almost certainly have to be held before the European elections in late May next year."

Exactly, and it's not possible to hold it that soon due to mandatory procedures: the last Brexit took 8 months due to legal challenges - which cannot be sped up.

Much of the UK is still in denial about Brexit.

Yes, those are the three options that would need to be voted on.

There is no guarantee whatsoever that those 3 options will be presented to voters: for example May indicated that they would leave out "remain" as an option, the only options would be 2018 deal or no deal. (!)

The EU indicated that they are not going to wait for that. They did indicate that they'll delay/stagger some effects of a hard Brexit (no deal) to cushion the humanitarian effects and to reduce chaos.

 

[scaesare]

OT
That rocket, (apologies if mentioned in the 3-400 future postings) is quite reminiscent of Chesley Bonestell’s drawings of rockets from 50-60+ years ago. Very classic.

Not to mention the Looney Tunes cartoons...

 

[Open Interest]

Interesting discussion about disaster risk in Shanghai. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone raise concerns about the Fremont plant sitting on the Hayward Fault, where there is a high probabability of a large earthquake in the not too distant future.

 

[neroden]

There is a lack both in regulation and in the respect for the regulation, for example the rampant and illegal use of CFC in China to an extent that it was first spotted on satellite imagery,

Mysterious source of illegal ozone-killing emissions revealed, say investigators

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-killing-emissions-revealed-say-investigators

This is actually a very serious sign that the central government lacks controls over both industry and provincial government. There are other such signs, including the inability of the central government to implement its coal closure plan due to provincial cheating and kickbacks.

Xi Jinping is *weak*. I am not sure when he will fall or whether China will collapse into separate provinces, but I've concluded he's weak and has relatively little control. I am glad that Tesla is allied with the Shanghai Regional Government, which appears strong...

 

[neroden]

Tomorrow Trump is expected to announce his National Emergency so he can build wall and open government.

It's 100% clear that spending money Congress has not appropriated is both illegal and unconstitutional. It's making the constitutional crisis worse.

The markets have a tendency to ignore such things until very late.

 

[Cattledog]

Interesting discussion about disaster risk in Shanghai. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone raise concerns about the Fremont plant sitting on the Hayward Fault, where there is a high probabability of a large earthquake in the not too distant future.

Perhaps not in the 2019 thread but pretty much in every year before. I think it depends on how you define the 'not so distant future'.