Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

While this was the obviously correct decision, there are so many crooks on the Supreme Court now that I have to say I'm relieved.

This is just Exxon trying to hide its internal documents. They're going to have to reveal them. This will reveal that they knew they were causing catastrophic climate damage, concealed it, and lied to the public about it.

This will make the damages cases against Exxon a lot easier to win, though unfortunately it still doesn't guarantee that they will be won. Since the total damages are astronomically high, on a very large number of different theories, I think this just adds another nail to help guarantee the ExxonMobil bankruptcy. I predicted they'd declare bankrupcy before 2030 -- I predicted it quite some years back

Did you mean 2020?

 

[neroden]

Actually good Bloomberg article:

Tesla’s Life After Hell: 7 Charts Show Musk on Firmer Footing

Also, key section:

"All analysts surveyed by Bloomberg now predict that Tesla will turn a profit in the fourth quarter, with an average estimate of $206 million on a GAAP basis. That’s a major reversal from April, when analysts’ consensus was for a fourth-quarter loss of about $234 million. The change in expectations for Tesla’s 2019 free cash flow are even more stark, flipping to about $837 million from negative $795 million as of early May. "

We now have our numbers. Don't let FactSet BS anyone this time.

Great. Those are still pretty low estimates, aren't they. How the hell do they think Tesla would arrange to make less money in Q4 than in Q3? I figure there must be a bunch of really dumb lowball numbers in the "average".

 

[Cattledog]

It's 100% clear that spending money Congress has not appropriated is both illegal and unconstitutional. It's making the constitutional crisis worse.

The markets have a tendency to ignore such things until very late.

We need a Trump version of the Doomsday Clock...

 

[neroden]

Some people are getting a bit flustered about the likelihood of a natural disaster potentially hitting the Shanghai Tesla factory.

It is a low probability event

Flood? With sea level rise accelerating? In reclaimed land in one of the most flood-prone areas on earth which is also prone to typhoons?

I'd say flooding is an *almost guaranteed* event. What I'd like to know is what they've done to mitigate it. (Extra floodwalls, putting all the sensitive equipment on the second floor, there are lots of things they could do)

 

[MP3Mike]

Great. Those are still pretty low estimates, aren't they. How the hell do they think Tesla would arrange to make less money in Q4 than in Q3? I figure there must be a bunch of really dumb lowball numbers in the "average".

They did have a debt repayment due in Q4 that they didn't in Q3, or does that not matter?

 

[neroden]

Musk has stated that they would compensate for any deficiencies, if any should prove present, by incorporating additional cells.

Hmmm. It would be very interesting if Tesla kept its best battery tech in the US while using "second rate" battery tech in China, putting the same number of "second rate" cells in an SR cars as they would put "top quality" cells in an LR car. It would wipe out the risk of Chinese battery trade secret theft.

 

[neroden]

They did have sent repayment in Q4 that they didn't in Q3, or does that not matter?

For cash flow, but does not matter for profit

 

[Open Interest]

Perhaps not in the 2019 thread but pretty much in every year before. I think it depends on how you define the 'not so distant future'.

It has been defined as the next 30 years since the last one hit 30 years ago. Obviously earthquake prediction is a very inexact science.

Bay Area companies have disaster plans. I assume other areas of the world that experience natural disasters do as well. But I might be overly optimistic.

 

[KarenRei]

Even more info about GF3:

Tesla Gigafactory 3: Facts & Videos From Groundbreaking

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shanghai's SR RWD Model 3 is going to be like the Volkswagen was in 1938. They are going to sell hundreds of thousands... millions even! Basic family transportation (for middle class I guess)

More like 1946, and Elon is Maj. Ivan Hirst:

• The War is won
• prosperity and jobs are coming
• production hits 1M cars in 3 yrs

Elon alluded to looking for his Heinrich Nordhoff, who should be ready to take over in 3 years*.

Now, as for renaming KdF stadt to Wolfsburg: Shanghai Giga becomes ???

Cheers!

* "History never repeats itself, but it rhymes." -- Mark Twain

 

[Fact Checking]

They did have a debt repayment due in Q4 that they didn't in Q3, or does that not matter?

Just like borrowing didn't create a profit for Tesla, paying back loans doesn't decrease profits either.

Loans are mostly cash flow and balance sheet items - only the interest paid shows up on the income sheet.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I'd say flooding is an *almost guaranteed* event. What I'd like to know is what they've done to mitigate it. (Extra floodwalls, putting all the sensitive equipment on the second floor, there are lots of things they could do)

Easy, Air suspension to raise the factory above flood levels. If that doesn’t work, biohazard defense mode to create positive pressure to keep the water out.

 

[Pezpunk]

...where there is a high probabability of a large earthquake in the not too distant future.

next Sunday, A.D.?

 

[Sparky]

OT, just reflecting. I know a continuation of dripsacks writing nonsense about TSLAQ is in the cards no matter what.
Maybe my guard is down but for the first time in a long while, I'm kinda feeling a sense of calm about owning TSLA. On Friday, I added some token shares in honor of my 1 year anniversary of owning a Model 3.
Helluva year:
I was down a bunch of $ at various times but mostly held and actually got the timing right to sell some before the major dips and buy close to bottom and added to my share total over this year.

My kid worked the GA3 line during the June "all hands on deck" push to 3k/week. Heard some very cool Tesla stories and got a nice "bump cap" from the GA3 line that I will cherish.

I gave a bunch of test drives and put over 18k miles on the 3. It's still solid as a rock and as fun as anything.
A good test drive story: Colleague, hotshot atmospheric scientist, contacts me to check out my 3 shortly after I got it. LOVES it. A short time later he's in UK, being admitted as member of Royal Society. I guess they have you sign into their little society book. It's just sitting on a podium. He could flip through the pages and find past sigs of folks like, oh... Isaac Newton, etc (nice club!). But the coolest thing is he's at Elon Musk's table; also being admitted; and starts talking to him about his test drive in my 3 and how amazing it is and how he's ordered one, etc etc. Made my day.
Just thought I'd share by taking stock rather than talking stock. Cheers.

 

[neroden]

Today, I decided to start cleaning up some of my somewhat over-leveraged (by my ultraconservative standards) Jan 18, 2019 options positions. In my main account I sold another stock and exercised my calls; in my IRA I sold my calls and bought (less) stock. The calls were bought as LEAPS from 2016/2017, and by today they had next-to-no time value left. Bought a tiny bit more stock because I have a stupid psychological quirk about having non-round-numbers of TSLA shares, and some of the calls were from SolarCity so it didn't come out even multiples of 100.

Now I wait to see which of my puts expire and which execute (expecting most to expire, but I can handle either way).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hmmm. It would be very interesting if Tesla kept its best battery tech in the US while using "second rate" battery tech in China, putting the same number of "second rate" cells in an SR cars as they would put "top quality" cells in an LR car. It would wipe out the risk of Chinese battery trade secret theft.

Moats are lame. It's the pace of innovation that matters. -- Elon Musk

 

[Unpilot]

Small data point. I am in the Grand Cayman Islands and so far I have seen 2 Tesla’s. 1 MS and 1 MX.
It seems to me a small island like this would be perfect for a M3. A single charge would last most of the week. Gas is 4.30 a gallon.

Nice SP action today...hopeful for more of the same tomorrow.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

While this was the obviously correct decision, there are so many crooks on the Supreme Court now that I have to say I'm relieved.

This is just Exxon trying to hide its internal documents. They're going to have to reveal them. This will reveal that they knew they were causing catastrophic climate damage, concealed it, and lied to the public about it.

This will make the damages cases against Exxon a lot easier to win, though unfortunately it still doesn't guarantee that they will be won. Since the total damages are astronomically high, on a very large number of different theories, I think this just adds another nail to help guarantee the ExxonMobil bankruptcy. I predicted they'd declare bankrupcy before 2030 -- I predicted it quite some years back

You short XOM?

 

[KarenRei]

Small data point. I am in the Grand Cayman Islands and so far I have seen 2 Tesla’s. 1 MS and 1 MX.
It seems to me a small island like this would be perfect for a M3. A single charge would last most of the week. Gas is 4.30 a gallon.

Nice SP action today...hopeful for more of the same tomorrow.

Islands and EVs are a match made in heaven.

Honestly, after two days of over 5%, I'll be happy if the SP movement is even positive tomorrow Can't let myself get too greedy here, too fast...

That said, if the market wants to gift us with another 5+% day.... Another 7,5% and my Feb $360s will be ITM even before the ER

 

[Rammstein]

Does anyone feel like this is the climax of the Tesla story at this point? Is this the one of the most important pioint in Tesla’s history? If Tesla is profitable then this will be the first time Tesla has two profitable quarters. This for sure shuts down one of the bears main talking point.