Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

China has mountains of coal. The problem is that burning it makes their cites uninhabitable from smog.

Also, (to be pedantic) China has plenty of sun and wind (although not exactly where it is needed, so they are building ultra-high-voltage power lines).

Yeah, China's high power transmission network is exemplary:

Brings wind and solar from the sparsely populated, energy-rich interior to the densely populated coast, while simultaneously bringing green jobs to the traditionally-impoverished interior.

 

[Pezpunk]

Yep, and the drop shows the typical patterns of a TSLA bear/short raid:

• Artificial pre-market peak to unrealistic highs not supported by macro (possibly executed via European secondary markets to evade SEC monitoring).

i disagree that $342 is unrealistic! the previous two days should be proof enough that this stock isn't nailed to the index.

 

[M3Rider]

Ho-ho. This is nice:

ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox broadcasting, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network and MSNBC said they would air the rebuttal.(By Schumer/Pelosi)

 

[Analyst007]

This baby flying soon for me. Need a gucci bag for my wife. Lol

 

[Fact Checking]

i disagree that $342 is unrealistic! the previous two days should be proof enough that this stock isn't nailed to the index.

Firstly, I fully agree that $342 is not an unrealistic price: I think from $342 levels for $TSLA to reach fair value it would have to rise +5% per day for another 22 trading days.

Yet the pre-market move was 'seemingly' not justified by the underlying news flow, i.e. it was apparently context-less.

There was some speculation here that some traders speculated on Larry Ellison's SEC filings and thought that it's disclosure of a new $1b position in TSLA, while what happened is that as a board member he disclosed his existing TSLA position (which is already known news).

That would explain today's price action (shout-out to @Papafox) - and in that case it wasn't a bear/short raid, but miscalculation by short term longs - followed by a resumption of yesterday's steady rise.

 

[trini0t3y]

I believe this - “When (Elon Musk) takes (the Model 3) to China, (Tesla’s) gonna make a gazillion bucks. I guarantee it,” Sandy Munro

Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 could ‘make a gazillion bucks:’ teardown expert | Teslas Only

 

[Toolsmack]

Firstly, I fully agree that $342 is not an unrealistic price: I think from $342 levels for $TSLA to reach fair value it would have to rise +5% per day for another 22 trading days.

Fact Checking fair value target = $1000.44

This makes me happy

 

[oneday]

Fact Checking fair value target = $1000.44

This makes me happy

My math gave me a $612.95 22 day PT. *fair value*

 

[Fact Checking]

I believe this - “When (Elon Musk) takes (the Model 3) to China, (Tesla’s) gonna make a gazillion bucks. I guarantee it,” Sandy Munro

Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 could ‘make a gazillion bucks:’ teardown expert | Teslas Only

Nice - what's the exchange rate from 'gazillion bucks' to USD?

 

[Remus]

The point @KarenRei is trying to make I think (and I made similar points previously) is that while China's economy has a fair amount of autonomy, there's a number of key differences:

• The Chinese government sets key control parameters WAY beyond that of any western economy (for example in China all banks are state-owned, so new credit/loans are 100% controlled by the government),
• Also, when the Chinese government explicitly supports you at every level, things start moving really, really fast.

Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory project got various boosts from the Chinese government already:

• 1-2 billion dollars of loans got approved in record time at favorable conditions,
• Tesla had no counter-bids for the land it purchased,
• Tesla got an electric grid connection three times faster than the average,
• one of the largest state owned Chinese construction firms is building the Gigafactory,
  
• local government officials are making various public statements of support for Tesla's project, which has an effect on contractors and suppliers.

To state that the Shanghai Gigafactory is a "prestige project" both for the Shanghai government (fastest growing city-state of China) and the Beijing central government is probably the understatement of the year. Attracting Tesla to mainland China was a major coup and is a template for future high-tech investments in China, which is strategic to China on many levels.

That's why I said "over simplification", not "wrong". And our friend here did not qualify his statement at all. To be fair complete 'free market' does not exists even in U.S. Or else Amazon won't be able to play cities like suckers. At the same time, although Deng Xiaoping poured tons of money to build Shen Zhen but nobody planed it to be mainly about electronic and toy manufacture.

on the flip side this kind of political support can be a double edged sword sometimes as the wind may turn suddenly with no warning.

 

[Fact Checking]

My math gave me a $612.95 22 day PT. *fair value*

Did you take into account what is, according to Einstein, the most powerful force in the universe?

 

[Unpilot]

Fact Checking fair value target = $1000.44

This makes me happy

Nice start but probably off by a factor or two.

Not advice but this ship is just starting to sail.
Tickets are still very cheap.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Brings wind and solar from the sparsely populated, energy-rich interior to the densely populated coast, while simultaneously bringing green jobs to the traditionally-impoverished interior.

Courtesy of Siemens.

Record Breaking HVDC

Newer news:
On January 24, 2018, the most powerful high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transformer began its journey from the transformer factory in Nuremberg, Germany, to China
World's first 1,100 kV HVDC transformer

Edit: meanwhile, CA's best offshore wind resources are up north, with the big consumers down south. What to do?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

My math gave me a $612.95 22 day PT. *fair value*

I get ~981:

1.05^22=2.925
2.925 * 335.25 = 980.69

 

[KarenRei]

Ran into this the other day, from a month ago. In case anyone was thinking about believing the shorts' "Hyundai is going to be a Tesla killer!" tripe:

https://premium.goauto.com.au/low-margin-huge-potential-for-ioniq-hyundai/

-----------------
Low margin, huge potential for Ioniq: Hyundai
Sales volume hard to predict but benefits clear to Hyundai with Ioniq, Kona Electric

...

“We have minimal margin, just slightly above breakeven, as it’s a highly competitive market from a pricing standpoint,” Mr Grant said.
-----------------

In case anyone has any doubts as to why Hyundai only makes its EVs in tiny volumes, or had entertained any notions about them truly mass-producing them...

Adjusting them to a Model 3-esque profit margin (>20%):

Hyundai Ioniq, without options, times 1,2x: $35778
Hyundai Kona 64kWh, without options, times 1,2x: $43740

(BTW: the US version doesn't even have a battery heater.. nor a Tesla style inverter-heater. No battery heating at all. No remote preheating, either).

 

[EVNow]

This price around 335 really doesn't cut it for me. It should either go above $350 so I can sell low leverage calls I had bought in $350s to free up cash or come back to $300 so I can buy calls for Q4 earnings

 

[winfield100]

It hit 180? I missed out on that

For a look into the heart of darkness Stanphyl Capital put out their year end letter Long rambling section on TSLA of course, including links to what seems to be every article with the word "electric" in it, showcasing all the "competition"

Stanphyl Capital Letter - December 2018 - Westell Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL) | Seeking Alpha

^^
Put in a comment that may get posted complimenting mark bs about how the article is almost identical to his Robin Hood investors conference article that is memorialized as “the Speigel bottom” when Tesla doubled in price from $186 to around $380 or so, and how this looks like a repeat heading for +$500/share as he is calling a second bottom of ~$333 or so
Spreading love and fear among shorts
^^

 

[EVNow]

Ran into this the other day, from a month ago. In case anyone was thinking about believing the shorts' "Hyundai is going to be a Tesla killer!" tripe:

https://premium.goauto.com.au/low-margin-huge-potential-for-ioniq-hyundai/

-----------------
Low margin, huge potential for Ioniq: Hyundai
Sales volume hard to predict but benefits clear to Hyundai with Ioniq, Kona Electric

...

“We have minimal margin, just slightly above breakeven, as it’s a highly competitive market from a pricing standpoint,” Mr Grant said.
-----------------

So, they spent all that money on engineering and design work just to produce a low volume compliance car ?

BTW, when Tesla starts making that $35k base model, it is really going to put a lot of further price pressure on other manufacturers. I'm afraid they will all resort to this low volume, low price compliance cars.

 

[KarenRei]

So, they spent all that money on engineering and design work just to produce a low volume compliance car ?

Ding ding ding, we have a winner!

 

[mongo]

Courtesy of Siemens.

Record Breaking HVDC

Newer news:
On January 24, 2018, the most powerful high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transformer began its journey from the transformer factory in Nuremberg, Germany, to China
World's first 1,100 kV HVDC transformer

Edit: meanwhile, CA's best offshore wind resources are up north, with the big consumers down south. What to do?

For others who care:
From article:

HVDC transformers are part of the converter station that convert alternating current into direct current at the beginning of the transmission line and convert it back again at the end of the line.

So an inverter, not a transformer (in the classical sense).
Each one is single phase 587MVA (99% efficiency) and weighs between 800 and 900 tons in operation.
Three units are interconnected at each end for 1.761 GVA three phase power handling.
7 sets of 3 at each end (42 total, good number) to get to the 12 GW (GVA) capacity listed.