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Company Update
18. Januar 2019
This morning, the following email was sent to all Tesla employees:

As we all experienced first-hand, last year was the most challenging in Tesla’s history. However, thanks to your efforts, 2018 was also the most successful year in Tesla’s history: we delivered almost as many cars as we did in all of 2017 in the last quarter alone and nearly as many cars last year as we did in all the prior years of Tesla’s existence combined! Model 3 also became the best-selling premium vehicle of 2018 in the US. This is truly remarkable and something that few thought possible just a short time ago.

Looking ahead at our mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport and energy, which is important for all life on Earth, we face an extremely difficult challenge: making our cars, batteries and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels. While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people. Tesla has only been producing cars for about a decade and we’re up against massive, entrenched competitors. The net effect is that Tesla must work much harder than other manufacturers to survive while building affordable, sustainable products.

In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k. The need for a lower priced variants of Model 3 becomes even greater on July 1, when the US tax credit again drops in half, making our car $1,875 more expensive, and again at the end of the year when it goes away entirely.

Sorry for all these numbers, but I want to make sure that you know all the facts and figures and understand that the road ahead is very difficult. This is not new for us – we have always faced significant challenges – but it is the reality we face. There are many companies that can offer a better work-life balance, because they are larger and more mature or in industries that are not so voraciously competitive. Attempting to build affordable clean energy products at scale necessarily requires extreme effort and relentless creativity, but succeeding in our mission is essential to ensure that the future is good, so we must do everything we can to advance the cause.

As a result of the above, we unfortunately have no choice but to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7% (we grew by 30% last year, which is more than we can support) and retain only the most critical temps and contractors. Tesla will need to make these cuts while increasing the Model 3 production rate and making many manufacturing engineering improvements in the coming months. Higher volume and manufacturing design improvements are crucial for Tesla to achieve the economies of scale required to manufacture the standard range (220 mile), standard interior Model 3 at $35k and still be a viable company. There isn't any other way.

To those departing, thank you for everything you have done to advance our mission. I am deeply grateful for your contributions to Tesla. We would not be where we are today without you.

For those remaining, although there are many challenges ahead, I believe we have the most exciting product roadmap of any consumer product company in the world. Full self-driving, Model Y, Semi, Truck and Roadster on the vehicle side and Powerwall/pack and Solar Roof on the energy side are only the start.

I am honored to work alongside you.

Thanks for everything,
Elon

Company Update
 
Question: "This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit." -- That would mean profitable desipite paying off the convertibles, no?

Paying off debt will impact cash flow but not income/profitability.

Q1 cash flow might be close to zero if they maintain Q3 levels of free cash flow. We'll be able to tell more based on Q4 free cash flow.
 
“In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”


I see the shorts running with these words and their contrast to Elon’s comments on the last call that Tesla will be profitable from here on out. Their go to narrative is Elon, Tesla cannot be trusted, no adult in the room... This also gives some fodder to pushing out the basic Tesla on the ropes narrative some more. Alas, until things turn nicely upward in a couple of quarters, we will have no shortage of “exactly like we said Q3 was the peak- and, now, Tesla’s exposed as the crumbling shell game we always said it was. already layoffs... wait until the competition hits this year... they even admitted the pressure of the competition..,”

Now, Elon did caveat the comments about profitability in October with ~possible exception of a quarter here or there~ but his tone then was not “hopefully” and with “some luck.” I see his audience for these comments as the workers going through these layoffs... my sense is he wants them to understand he’d only do this as a mission critical last resort. The shorts will have their run with this. LT picture almost certainly intact... short term some validity to reading this as Tesla having some near term issues.
 
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Looks like today will be the day for converting some stock into options! Hmm, should I sell the stock at open maybe and then try to wait for a decent low to buy the options? Or wait and do the selling and buying at basically the same time?

Glad I got my 15 Feb $300s rolled 22 Febs. Shame I didn't get a chance to roll my $330s and $360s. Then again... if Elon is looking at preliminary unaudited results, perhaps we'll have an announcement soon and a pre-15-Feb ER?

Question: "This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit." -- That would mean profitable desipite paying off the convertibles, no?

The IV today will be high most probably. You will be paying higher premium. Add to that the possibility the shorts put prolonged pressure and you get a bad day to bet on calls (especially short term calls).
It might actually be a better Idea for you to sell stock and sell short term puts (cash covered with the stock you sold) at the same time.

Btw- you were the reasonable one around here (the "pessimistic" gal vs. the super bulls). You started trading options and suddenly you changed (or is it just my imagination?).
 
Elon is framing Q1 profits as a cliff-hanger in his usual "only the paranoid survive" style - but I think Q1 profits are going to be more than just tiny, with 100D/P100D sales and high trim units in Europe and China.

Agreed. Let's not forget his letter to employees right before the end of Q3 where he talked about how they were struggling to try to turn their first sustainable profit: "“We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong, but, to be certain, we must execute really well tomorrow (Sunday)"

Of course, they didn't just eke out a profit thanks to some one-day push; they blew it entirely out of the water.
 
Question: "This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit." -- That would mean profitable desipite paying off the convertibles, no?

He's talking about profit rather than cash flow here, so doesn't include the converts. For Q1 it probably implies something like 60-65k 3s, 21-22k S/X, gross margins up a bit QoQ on Model 3 and down a bit for S/X, lower credit sales profit, gradual increase in R&D and SG&A and some exceptional restructuring costs.
 
Estimates for the bottom today??

298?

As usuall my figure is plucked frok gut instinct, any one with a stop loss on will have it triggers this morning!

Current pre market 322.00 with 128k shares traded much higher than usuall..

Reducing employees by 7 percent must indicate the 35k model is within touching distance...

Come on Ol Musky give us a date for the 35k model 3 release :) that would balance the books a little...
 
I must have misunderstood, I thought that the MR would never be available outside US. Good that I was mistaken. Also good that Tesla is really are going for the SR asap. They're trying to deliver on their promises. Long term bullish AF. Short term not so much.

They never said this would be easy.

Maybe that was the plan, but, now it’s become clear SR will not be ready as soon as they’d wanted. I suspect the hope was to turn to SR in Q2 as a cushion to be sure they’d have enough configs available to tap enough of the pent up demand to match supply. Now, they have to go back to MR. Remember in late November on 60 Minutes, he said 4-6 months for SR. That would be ~by May. Looks pretty likely that’s been pushed out.
 
In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.


Elon, you are really an idiot with words like "hopefully", "great difficulty", "luck", "tiny profit". fuuck off

Elon Musk doesn’t seem to care about investor conference calls—and he shouldn’t:
“I couldn’t care less” Tesla CEO Elon Musk said of day traders during the company’s quarterly earnings call last week. “Please sell our stock and don’t buy it.” Later, he called a question about short-term expectations “boneheaded” (the answer was already in the Q1 press release).

It's not like this didn't make thousands of newspaper headlines. You're the one to blame (again). When will you learn?
 
Btw- you were the reasonable one around here (the "pessimistic" gal vs. the super bulls). You started trading options and suddenly you changed (or is it just my imagination?).

In SP polls we've done here on the site before I usually rank about 20-25th percentile or so (where higher percentiles = more bullish). I'm a bull, but I'm always apprehensive when I hear "It can only go up!" talk (such talk usually encourages me to start selling), and was not part of the crowd that doubled down on the "$420" news. I maintain stock and calls with fairly low strike prices** with multi-month expiries (excepting near ER). Always like to have some cash or stock on-hand to take advantage of lows by transferring it to calls. Right now I'm about half in stock and half in calls.
 
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In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.


Elon, you are really an idiot with words like "hopefully", "great difficulty", "luck", "tiny profit". fuuck off

The timing of the letter is not great from our perspective (I also have calls that got killed by that), but if it was leaked instead, the damage would've been greater.

Something else to consider- the target audience for this letter are the employees and not the investors. He must very clearly justify why he let people go while at the same time keep the moral high. He most probably over dramatized the situation to make it sound more like a "necessity' rather than simple, profit driven corporate action.

In any case- the shorts will be very happy about that and we will see lower prices in the coming week or so.
 
Profit declining two quarters in a row while rolling out Model 3 in all markets. That's not a good look. The need to make MR available to all markets by May can only be read as SR being delayed longer than most anticipated, maybe not even in Q3. Admission that the fed credits disappearing do indeed hurt demand also a negative. Finally, getting relief from Q4 numbers in the shareholder letter is less likely now since guidance is probably not going to be in very hard numbers.