Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

CCS not allowing adapters has been "known" for some time, but Tesla has actually stated they will make Type 2 CCS adapters available for existing Type 2 (non-CCS) S/X vehicles.

Tesla confirms Model 3 is getting a CCS plug in Europe, adapter coming for Model S and Model X



So I would gather that Tesla has found away around the restriction, perhaps by getting the rules changed, or perhaps with some novel interpretation of the rules... but in either case, I would no longer be so certain an adapter can't happen when they've officially stated it's coming.

FWIW, as I understand the CharIN rules, adapters are not explicitly prohibited but any connecting device including native charge ports, requires approval and EU approaches to high power connectors of any kind are rigorous. Nobody yet has such an adapter but Tesla, as a CharIN member, can probably get it done if anyone can. My personal suspicion is that such an adapter will be either draw limited [and/or] subject to onboard and station specific authorization(I.e. handshake) processing. Since I most definitely am not technically qualified imam sure someone who is will correct me if I am in error in this opinion.

 

[gora321]

TeslaQ HQ on Twitter

 

[aubreymcfato]

Not quite as far off topic:

xkcd

Mouseover text is spot on:

I [suspect] that we are throwing more and more of our resources, including the cream of our youth, into financial activities remote from the production of goods and services, into activities that generate high private rewards disproportionate to their social productivity. I suspect that the immense power of the computer is being harnessed to this "paper economy", not to do the same transactions more economically but to balloon the quantity and variety of financial exchanges. --James Tobin, July 1984

 

[ReflexFunds]

In my view the single most important development which will impact Tesla's earnings, volume and mission in 2019 is progress with reducing the cost of production of a base $35k Model 3.

This is what drives their ability to launch non premium and short range car options, which is the largest factor in whether Tesla can achieve sustainable demand of 7k Model 3s per week. This cost reduction progress is also what impacts their ability to maintain Model 3 gross margin above 20% and progress towards its 25% target.

Significant progress has been made in 2018, with a $29.1k reduction in average cost between Q1 and Q4 2018 on my estimates. Excluding the impact of spreading fixed depreciation costs over higher car volume, cost reduction achieved was $17.2k. I think Tesla likely exited 2018 with a cost of c.$37.5k.

Implied Tesla average COGs for a $35k base car:

• 1Q18 $67.6k ($53.2k ex depreciation).
• 2Q $49.0k ($42.3k ex depreciation).
• 3Q $40.1k ($37.4k ex depreciation).
• 4QE $38.5k ($36.0k ex depreciation).

To get to 25.0% average margin on my long term option mix estimates (50% EAP, 50% Premium interior, 50% US, 50% SR, 15% MR, 10% LR, 20% LR AWD, 5% AWD P) Tesla needs to reduce this cost by another $5.5k to $32.0k. Elon has previously stated a target of reducing this cost to $30k, which should correspond to an average margin closer to 30%.

Much of the easy work on cost reduction has now been done, so it is going to be a significant challenge to make further progress.
Roughly I think this $5.5k cost saving could be achieved by:

• Production ramp from 5k/week to 7/k week, which could reduce depreciation by c.$0.5k per car and staff costs by c.$1.5-2k per car.
• New more efficient battery module and pack designs: $0.5-1k per car
• $10-20/kwh reduction in Panasonic cell purchase cost: $0.5-1k per car
• Cancellation of referral program (I'm not sure how this is accounted for, but it may reduce deferred revenue by c.$0.5k)
• Cancellation of Trump's China tariffs: $0.5-1k per car.
• Other supplier cost savings with negotiations and purchasing scale: $0.5-1k
• Other car design improvements: $0.5-1k
• Better production quality to reduce scrap, rework and warranty costs: $0.5-1k

Does anyone have any views on whether these potential savings look realistic?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Also, Hypercharts.co is a collaboration between Gali and our own TMC member @moe.salih

 

[mrdoubleb]

View attachment 370517
TeslaQ HQ on Twitter

WOW. Upgraded my initial "funny" vote to "love".
On the face of it, the Tweet is about how the Model X will not sell, when in fact it now sells 50k per year. However if you look a bit closer, there is another gem in there. Tesla is often criticized for missing deadlines. Well, that Audi Q6, that became the e-tron SUV, was originally targeted for Q2 2018 production and it still has not started deliveries now in Q1 2019. The only thing that matches is the price promised, but of course the real life range is less than a comparable Model X`s.

 

[Nakata]

Bjorn Nyland testing autopilot on nav.

autopilot at some moments changes lanes a bit to much but actually I am really impressed how it handles the highway.
First few minutes you can skip because it is mainly red lights but on the highway there is a lot of action.

 

[KarenRei]

Bjorn Nyland testing autopilot on nav.

autopilot at some moments changes lanes a bit to much but actually I am really impressed how it handles the highway.
First few minutes you can skip because it is mainly red lights but on the highway there is a lot of action.

Everyone was shouting in the comments section about Björn complaining about it being overaggressive about lane changes, "That's because you have it set to Mad Max mode!"

 

[KarenRei]

WOW. Upgraded my initial "funny" vote to "love".
On the face of it, the Tweet is about how the Model X will not sell, when in fact it now sells 50k per year. However if you look a bit closer, there is another gem in there. Tesla is often criticized for missing deadlines. Well, that Audi Q6, that became the e-tron SUV, was originally targeted for Q2 2018 production and it still has not started deliveries now in Q1 2019. The only thing that matches is the price promised, but of course the real life range is less than a comparable Model X`s.

E-Tron is also not the size of the Model X.

 

[Nakata]

https://www.handelsblatt.com/untern...r-plan-fuer-das-autonome-fahren/23887612.html

The BMW-Daimler-Plan for autonomous driving

BMW and Daimler are reviewing a merger of their development activities. The goal is to reduce the billions of dollars spent on developing driverless operating systems and establishing an industry standard. The Google sister Waymo is still clearly ahead

No mention of tesla

 

[Hock1]

Tesla needs to release V3 superchargers soon to maintain demand[/QUOTE]

I'd bet that they do reservations. You make good points, but at the end of the day it's easy money, esp now that Musk is in full-on no cap raise mode.



Yes, you missed it. If you spot news that isn't single-digit minutes old, it's *always* here first. I'm amazed that people still genuinely and routinely come to this thread with day-old newsnews think there's any chance they're first. Maybe in obscure cases, but never something coming straight from Tesla.

I know. That's why I am very grateful to belong to this board. Nothing gets by this crowd.

 

[KarenRei]

I know. That's why I am very grateful to belong to this board. Nothing gets by this crowd.

Hey guys! I don't know if you saw this, but apparently Tesla plans to lay off 7% of its workforce!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Off Shore]

Link doesn't work, for me at least.

xkcd: Technical Analysis

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon said he is not sure they will do reservations for Model Y.

Outside North America there was not that much advantage to having a reservation for almost 3 years vs ordering January 2019. It remains to be seen whether there will be much advantage for Americans wanting a SR Model 3 or a base stripper $35k Model 3.

They did reservations to gauge demand.

They can now extrapolate Model Y demand based on Model 3 demand.

Giving new set of customers and circumstances, Model Y reservations might be underwhelming. Actual demand will not be underwhelming, just a greater percentage of people will wait to just place orders directly without a reservation once configurator opens to the general public.

And let’s be honest, M3 reservation actually meant nothing in the end, well except perhaps a print of the final design...

 

[Zaxxon]

And let’s be honest, M3 reservation actually meant nothing in the end, well except perhaps a print of the final design...

It sure got me a car months faster than my relatives, who reserved a day later! No print for me despite standing in line, though. Early reservations in the US mattered a lot.

 

[reddit_tl]

Excellent estimation exercise. I don't know enough about the details. But cost reduction is one important foundation for tesla success, which is my view too.

In my view the single most important development which will impact Tesla's earnings, volume and mission in 2019 is progress with reducing the cost of production of a base $35k Model 3.

This is what drives their ability to launch non premium and short range car options, which is the largest factor in whether Tesla can achieve sustainable demand of 7k Model 3s per week. This cost reduction progress is also what impacts their ability to maintain Model 3 gross margin above 20% and progress towards its 25% target.

Significant progress has been made in 2018, with a $29.1k reduction in average cost between Q1 and Q4 2018 on my estimates. Excluding the impact of spreading fixed depreciation costs over higher car volume, cost reduction achieved was $17.2k. I think Tesla likely exited 2018 with a cost of c.$37.5k.

Implied Tesla average COGs for a $35k base car:

• 1Q18 $67.6k ($53.2k ex depreciation).
• 2Q $49.0k ($42.3k ex depreciation).
• 3Q $40.1k ($37.4k ex depreciation).
• 4QE $38.5k ($36.0k ex depreciation).

To get to 25.0% average margin on my long term option mix estimates (50% EAP, 50% Premium interior, 50% US, 50% SR, 15% MR, 10% LR, 20% LR AWD, 5% AWD P) Tesla needs to reduce this cost by another $5.5k to $32.0k. Elon has previously stated a target of reducing this cost to $30k, which should correspond to an average margin closer to 30%.

Much of the easy work on cost reduction has now been done, so it is going to be a significant challenge to make further progress.
Roughly I think this $5.5k cost saving could be achieved by:

• Production ramp from 5k/week to 7/k week, which could reduce depreciation by c.$0.5k per car and staff costs by c.$1.5-2k per car.
• New more efficient battery module and pack designs: $0.5-1k per car
• $10-20/kwh reduction in Panasonic cell purchase cost: $0.5-1k per car
• Cancellation of referral program (I'm not sure how this is accounted for, but it may reduce deferred revenue by c.$0.5k)
• Cancellation of Trump's China tariffs: $0.5-1k per car.
• Other supplier cost savings with negotiations and purchasing scale: $0.5-1k
• Other car design improvements: $0.5-1k
• Better production quality to reduce scrap, rework and warranty costs: $0.5-1k

Does anyone have any views on whether these potential savings look realistic?

 

[Krugerrand]

You need to stop defending the undefensible.

Walk into any dealer,go to their parts department and ask for a fender on a less than 10 year old model.

Good chance they have it in stock or a nearby dealer has it in stock. And they can get it that day.

At least that is the case in Los Angeles, maybe rural flyover country it is different.

Yes, nobody thinks about it because it is never an issue. They have *sugar* in stock.

If you need an obscure part on a 25 year old Ferrari, good chance there is a delay.

Then there are delays that is the insurance company's fault and the body shop company's fault.

Parts not available for commonly replaced parts in accidents is not a problem for any mainstream brands or bigger luxury brands.

Need a fender for a Spyker , that might be a problem.

Tesla sold 245k cars last year. It should be in the same league as Volvo.

I actually defended nothing. You need to stop putting words and thoughts into other people’s post and simply read what was written. You also need to stop making blanket statements.

 

[Drax7]

In my view the single most important development which will impact Tesla's earnings, volume and mission in 2019 is progress with reducing the cost of production of a base $35k Model 3.

This is what drives their ability to launch non premium and short range car options, which is the largest factor in whether Tesla can achieve sustainable demand of 7k Model 3s per week. This cost reduction progress is also what impacts their ability to maintain Model 3 gross margin above 20% and progress towards its 25% target.

Significant progress has been made in 2018, with a $29.1k reduction in average cost between Q1 and Q4 2018 on my estimates. Excluding the impact of spreading fixed depreciation costs over higher car volume, cost reduction achieved was $17.2k. I think Tesla likely exited 2018 with a cost of c.$37.5k.

Implied Tesla average COGs for a $35k base car:

• 1Q18 $67.6k ($53.2k ex depreciation).
• 2Q $49.0k ($42.3k ex depreciation).
• 3Q $40.1k ($37.4k ex depreciation).
• 4QE $38.5k ($36.0k ex depreciation).

To get to 25.0% average margin on my long term option mix estimates (50% EAP, 50% Premium interior, 50% US, 50% SR, 15% MR, 10% LR, 20% LR AWD, 5% AWD P) Tesla needs to reduce this cost by another $5.5k to $32.0k. Elon has previously stated a target of reducing this cost to $30k, which should correspond to an average margin closer to 30%.

Much of the easy work on cost reduction has now been done, so it is going to be a significant challenge to make further progress.
Roughly I think this $5.5k cost saving could be achieved by:

• Production ramp from 5k/week to 7/k week, which could reduce depreciation by c.$0.5k per car and staff costs by c.$1.5-2k per car.
• New more efficient battery module and pack designs: $0.5-1k per car
• $10-20/kwh reduction in Panasonic cell purchase cost: $0.5-1k per car
• Cancellation of referral program (I'm not sure how this is accounted for, but it may reduce deferred revenue by c.$0.5k)
• Cancellation of Trump's China tariffs: $0.5-1k per car.
• Other supplier cost savings with negotiations and purchasing scale: $0.5-1k
• Other car design improvements: $0.5-1k
• Better production quality to reduce scrap, rework and warranty costs: $0.5-1k

Does anyone have any views on whether these potential savings look realistic?

All the above are relevant, and reducing labor costs per unit is probably where the most significant
Impact is to be had, explaining the recent layoffs.

The autonomous driving unit hardware included in all cars , Irrespective or whether it’s paid for,
Might be dropped. Any thoughts ?
At least in the cheapest car version.

 

[Fact Checking]

The autonomous driving unit hardware included in all cars , Irrespective or whether it’s paid for,
Might be dropped. Any thoughts ?

Autopilot take rate is high, and it will go even higher once the first FSD features are offered, hopefully sometime this year.

Not adding the HW reduces post delivery EAP take rate significantly and would make the one month EAP trials impossible.

So it would be shortsighted. I believe Tesla is controlling HW3 costs very well by having designed their own AI CPU.

 

[KarenRei]

Hey, riddle me this: who's made of steel, weighs tens of thousands of tonnes, and is sailing in the Caribbean toward Zeebrugge?

THIS GUY