Elon said he is not sure they will do reservations for Model Y.
Outside North America there was not that much advantage to having a reservation for almost 3 years vs ordering January 2019. It remains to be seen whether there will be much advantage for Americans wanting a SR Model 3 or a base stripper $35k Model 3.
They did reservations to gauge demand.
They can now extrapolate Model Y demand based on Model 3 demand.
Giving new set of customers and circumstances, Model Y reservations might be underwhelming. Actual demand will not be underwhelming, just a greater percentage of people will wait to just place orders directly without a reservation once configurator opens to the general public.
I agree that Elon has said he is not sure about Y reservations.
IMO they will definitely do reservations.
IMO there will be more demand for the Model Y than even the Model 3... since the 3 is a sedan, but the Y is in the hottest non-truck segment - small/medium SUVs.
Yes, there will be more people who want to stay on the sidelines and watch while early VINs get the bugs worked out.
Yes, there will be more people who want to stay on the sidelines because they want the base version, and know that, like the S, X and 3, the high-priced versions will be sold first.
Yes, there will be more people who want to stay on the sidelines because they think it will be 2 years before they get the car, so there's not much point putting down $1,000 for that long.
Yes, there will be more Europeans and non-USA folks sitting on the sidelines, because they know the USA folks get served first. (the situation is more cloudy this time around, due to China. Perhaps a simultaneous China+USA launch?)
BUT - there will be more people who have seen a Model 3 or know a person who has one, and can vouch for the car, the tech, and the company, and will order a Model Y.
There is more EV charging infrastructure now than there was in 2016.
There is more manufacturing capacity now than there was in 2016, and there will be much more by 2020/2021.
There are more people who want an electric vehicle now, than there were in 2016.
There will be more reservations - period.
IMO when it comes to Model Y, all categories of demographic analysis with have "more" in them. There won't be any that have "less" than Model 3. The only demographic category that will have "less" in it is internal combustion. The key phrase with the Model Y is that there will be more more MORE!!!
I think the reveal of the Model Y will not significantly hurt sales of iPace, Kona etc. but it may affect orders for EQC and E-Tron
I conservatively expect 500,000 reservations within a month of the opening of reservations. (vs. 343,000 Model 3 after 6 weeks, I think it was) If there are a million reservations, it will be surprising in the same way as the Model 3 reservations blew away expectations in 2016. But I would never say that is impossible.
The reservation number will be covered widely in the mainstream media, it's the kind of content everyone likes to publish. From USA Today to WSJ to CNBC to Reuters to BBC, Die Zeit and Le Monde.
Huge reservation numbers will
rub it in the face of other manufacturers - especially those who are not producing BEVs.
Think about Infiniti, who produce lots of concepts but still do not have a BEV. The Model Y is going to hit them in the jugular (after the Model 3 already hit them in the solar plexus). 500,000 people taken out of the marketplace is going to really
suck!
Consider Mazda, who have no BEVs, and their CX-5 which is $41,920 fully loaded. The last thing they are going to want to see is a large, known quantity of people who have removed themselves from the CX-5 market. No amount of $$$ spent on TV advertising, or efforts from dealerships, will get them back.
These people have decided to get a Tesla Model Y and they are GONE. It's this sort of goading that get Mazda to get into BEVs.
(while I'm here... I noticed that Mazda has a cellphone app that is somewhat similar to what Tesla's does. It's a $550 option!!!)
Same thing will happen across dealerships all over the world - dropping attendances, dropping browsers, less people kicking the tires - because they have already placed an order for Model Y.
Tesla's mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport & energy.
Arguably they are already doing a stand-up job at this, but... we have seen that Elon does not like to stop.
Keeping the demand for the Model Y a secret is, well, not consistent with accelerating the transition.
There is no way Elon is going to pass up on this opportunity.
