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Breaking: First Models 3s are in Hamburg (Germany)

Die ersten europäischen @Tesla #Model3 stehen bereits in Hamburg. Danke für die Bilder @KroegerOve !

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Ove is a YouTuber, gas head and big Tesla fan and a very reliable source
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No way. Elon many times talked about safety features included into ALL cars. He's big on safety.

Also you have additional costs adding a variant w/o AP so it may not even be cheaper. Finally you create production complexity and less units per variant which increases costs again, finally GM on AP is likely between 90 - 99% so you do not want to touch that. In particular not as people can at a later point decide for it and give you high profit on top of an already profitable car.
 
And let’s be honest, M3 reservation actually meant nothing in the end, well except perhaps a print of the final design...

While it is true with respect to the purchase/delivery time order, there was a couple of extra gifts you could get if you reserved early ;)

1. Early reservation holders received a nice 'Thank You' card from Elon with early design sketches of the Model 3.
2. Those who lined up first day to reserve personally in stores also received a die-cast 1/43 toy model of the Model 3.
YUm9geVW94NvVnYgQ7gzh92DmbRZP9CgKm6FRT4kIpx437JQ9rx6r83OFJlFQ2YpX_wiP5E86Hi6y2yplO_54JjzNgXUR09HAal3i0_1a8ojeu4y-ruvjj6jiHFthrBX0KDU5MEnkIISlg0Sev6qAJ8jEW9TwoVP_vHHX9FuKKPYnTFm_7XP78Xw8uKnISed5odxkJSGLM6docNSgdNulQAcGO01XF0lKhnhoA5XfGE7DB2EWydkGHt-H1It-MafddKJs_Mzm6aTbG_QY_eGeAjKm9uPftaIc9XspTJqn6S_Ai9wC13dedkQwXMjyK1HbOeH-mEFuMxUxN5qSAac7ZEAgDFjNa7Oj1VhMBkQB79D_QsOuPtEiXFZBRiqEjhM2mrIvSHLGL9BCXquEwAWrnhBMMQeS5DvWoZ9D2vy4IQ67an7d5GWc6uiXpK73XKk1rauh0twYsCvqjhkpyXfwutbLGrnG_Ahk2sfLl6Dl1tAlTxWqwjRwNaa_wlvNOt67T5g8GpTZ4ma9MEzaBGtt0laASrFXF0mcNR7pXIlnkYYG2sCzdpc_1jMLMGD-TtHj4TNtAj80F9KP3fekBB1FcQfKy4L988bv6W5qnkZbFLdg7jX5SldDcS7ntBp9-t0tvJMAWWaQCP0wwb7S74PCW-7ew=w1255-h942-no
 
It is a shame orders were cancelled because of service. It is the easy part. Hopefully Elon can fix this fast.
I love this post but hate the facts. When I switched from my beloved P85D I was dismayed by the shoddy delivery mess. The car itself was amazing, although the badging has not yet appeared. Sadly, my car was damaged in an accident caused by an inept driver. I was a passenger seeing it in slow motion but helpless. That was on Sept 14 last year. The car has been in a body shop ever since, with multiple parts requiring multiple replacements because of Tesla errors and delays. they cannot get it right and even are very difficult to reach, Executive Escalation on this subject now ignored.

To my knowledge six reservations have not yet been made into orders because of this. One of those just bought an I-Pace instead. I remain a bull, but I am convinced that sad stories such as this are causing orders to be deferred and reservations cancelled. I remain hopeful that Tesla will fix this. If Tesla repeats this stupidity in Germany and/or Japan it might just be terminal. Right now I am a very worried bull. All of Tesla must know, but no actions seems to be being taken to fix the delivery/service/parts messes.[/QUOTE
 
About reservations...

It's likely that a Tesla reservation is just that - reservation for a Tesla vehicle.

If that's the case, all those with reservations initially intended for a Model 3 who haven't exercised may be at the head of the line for a Model Y.

This is not how Tesla has historically done things. For example, I had an X reservation when the 3 reservations began. I was not able to transfer it to the 3. Had to place a new reservation for the 3, then cancel the X.
 
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  • Although Model 3 would be profitable on average, the unoptioned $35k would still be unprofitable at this stage, particularly outside the US without GHG credits.
When Tesla launches the $35k standard range Model 3, could they launch with AWD or premium optioned versions of this vehicle? As they move through reservations, they could open it up to the most stripped down version of the standard range as they get production levels balanced.

It would be better than letting the floodgates open and swamped with the lowest optioned version of the standard range.
 
Elon said he is not sure they will do reservations for Model Y.

Outside North America there was not that much advantage to having a reservation for almost 3 years vs ordering January 2019. It remains to be seen whether there will be much advantage for Americans wanting a SR Model 3 or a base stripper $35k Model 3.

They did reservations to gauge demand.

They can now extrapolate Model Y demand based on Model 3 demand.

Giving new set of customers and circumstances, Model Y reservations might be underwhelming. Actual demand will not be underwhelming, just a greater percentage of people will wait to just place orders directly without a reservation once configurator opens to the general public.
I agree that Elon has said he is not sure about Y reservations.
IMO they will definitely do reservations.
IMO there will be more demand for the Model Y than even the Model 3... since the 3 is a sedan, but the Y is in the hottest non-truck segment - small/medium SUVs.
Yes, there will be more people who want to stay on the sidelines and watch while early VINs get the bugs worked out.
Yes, there will be more people who want to stay on the sidelines because they want the base version, and know that, like the S, X and 3, the high-priced versions will be sold first.
Yes, there will be more people who want to stay on the sidelines because they think it will be 2 years before they get the car, so there's not much point putting down $1,000 for that long.
Yes, there will be more Europeans and non-USA folks sitting on the sidelines, because they know the USA folks get served first. (the situation is more cloudy this time around, due to China. Perhaps a simultaneous China+USA launch?)
BUT - there will be more people who have seen a Model 3 or know a person who has one, and can vouch for the car, the tech, and the company, and will order a Model Y.
There is more EV charging infrastructure now than there was in 2016.
There is more manufacturing capacity now than there was in 2016, and there will be much more by 2020/2021.
There are more people who want an electric vehicle now, than there were in 2016.
There will be more reservations - period.

IMO when it comes to Model Y, all categories of demographic analysis with have "more" in them. There won't be any that have "less" than Model 3. The only demographic category that will have "less" in it is internal combustion. The key phrase with the Model Y is that there will be more more MORE!!!

I think the reveal of the Model Y will not significantly hurt sales of iPace, Kona etc. but it may affect orders for EQC and E-Tron

I conservatively expect 500,000 reservations within a month of the opening of reservations. (vs. 343,000 Model 3 after 6 weeks, I think it was) If there are a million reservations, it will be surprising in the same way as the Model 3 reservations blew away expectations in 2016. But I would never say that is impossible.

The reservation number will be covered widely in the mainstream media, it's the kind of content everyone likes to publish. From USA Today to WSJ to CNBC to Reuters to BBC, Die Zeit and Le Monde.

Huge reservation numbers will rub it in the face of other manufacturers - especially those who are not producing BEVs.
Think about Infiniti, who produce lots of concepts but still do not have a BEV. The Model Y is going to hit them in the jugular (after the Model 3 already hit them in the solar plexus). 500,000 people taken out of the marketplace is going to really suck!

Consider Mazda, who have no BEVs, and their CX-5 which is $41,920 fully loaded. The last thing they are going to want to see is a large, known quantity of people who have removed themselves from the CX-5 market. No amount of $$$ spent on TV advertising, or efforts from dealerships, will get them back. These people have decided to get a Tesla Model Y and they are GONE. It's this sort of goading that get Mazda to get into BEVs.

(while I'm here... I noticed that Mazda has a cellphone app that is somewhat similar to what Tesla's does. It's a $550 option!!!)

Same thing will happen across dealerships all over the world - dropping attendances, dropping browsers, less people kicking the tires - because they have already placed an order for Model Y.

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport & energy.
Arguably they are already doing a stand-up job at this, but... we have seen that Elon does not like to stop.
Keeping the demand for the Model Y a secret is, well, not consistent with accelerating the transition.
There is no way Elon is going to pass up on this opportunity.
 
2. Those who lined up first day to reserve personally in stores also received a die-cast 1/43 toy model of the Model 3.
YUm9geVW94NvVnYgQ7gzh92DmbRZP9CgKm6FRT4kIpx437JQ9rx6r83OFJlFQ2YpX_wiP5E86Hi6y2yplO_54JjzNgXUR09HAal3i0_1a8ojeu4y-ruvjj6jiHFthrBX0KDU5MEnkIISlg0Sev6qAJ8jEW9TwoVP_vHHX9FuKKPYnTFm_7XP78Xw8uKnISed5odxkJSGLM6docNSgdNulQAcGO01XF0lKhnhoA5XfGE7DB2EWydkGHt-H1It-MafddKJs_Mzm6aTbG_QY_eGeAjKm9uPftaIc9XspTJqn6S_Ai9wC13dedkQwXMjyK1HbOeH-mEFuMxUxN5qSAac7ZEAgDFjNa7Oj1VhMBkQB79D_QsOuPtEiXFZBRiqEjhM2mrIvSHLGL9BCXquEwAWrnhBMMQeS5DvWoZ9D2vy4IQ67an7d5GWc6uiXpK73XKk1rauh0twYsCvqjhkpyXfwutbLGrnG_Ahk2sfLl6Dl1tAlTxWqwjRwNaa_wlvNOt67T5g8GpTZ4ma9MEzaBGtt0laASrFXF0mcNR7pXIlnkYYG2sCzdpc_1jMLMGD-TtHj4TNtAj80F9KP3fekBB1FcQfKy4L988bv6W5qnkZbFLdg7jX5SldDcS7ntBp9-t0tvJMAWWaQCP0wwb7S74PCW-7ew=w1255-h942-no

I of course didn't wait in line as I live in England. But I love that little die-cast model, so I bought one from somebody on eBay. Cost about $130, but I have it sitting in my lounge and look at it every day and smile.
 
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Here in California gas is $3.50 per gallon. Supercharging is .26/ kwh. My Model 3 takes me 4.45 miles per Kw. .26 divided by 4.45 = $.058 per mile. Gas at $3.50 divided by 25mpg = $.14. So gas is 3 times as expensive. We, like many people here charge from solar.

Gas also brings with it all sorts of other costs. Lung cancer, brain damage to children, and even the premature death of my wife 7 years ago who grew up near an oil refinery.

This woman, and several of the young people who lived in her neighborhood near a refinery, all died prematurely of a similar type of AML leukemia. It was because of Anne's illness that I went EV back in 2012. I was not going to have any part of doing to other children, what was done to Anne.
The first picture is Anne in 2010. The second picture is Anne in 2011: View attachment 370255 View attachment 370256

Just a wake up call just how expensive gas can be.

I have been unable to get this post out of my mind since I saw it the other day. Thank you for sharing Anne’s heartbreaking story. Although your grief is profound you have done everything you can to turn it into something good, both by going all EV, and by educating us to the dangers of fossil fuels. I will never look at the high price of gas in the same way.