Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Also note that by making every battery pack 100 kWh they can now lower their annual production guidance to around 75,000-80,000 units.

2) More paint shop capacity for Model 3.

3) Less Model S made should support Model S used car values.

 

[JRP3]

Hmm.. I am not seeing any positives here.

This is a clear $8K price cut couched under the guise of introducing a new variance.

Don't get me wrong, this is the right progression of price to performance one should expect in a fast evolving technology. And Tesla is adapting to it.

You seem conflicted.

 

[MP3Mike]

Where are you getting these numbers? P take rate in Norway looks like ~3.5% in 2017 and ~2% in 2018...Model 3 VINs

I was using Tesla Registration Stats and looking at all 6 years of data, not just 2017 and 2018.

 

[PANN]

I see the Extended Range as a good pricing tactic.

Yes for average buyers, $8K for 8% extra range, doesn't sound like a great deal. The Base 310miles is enough for most.

But for Tesla, that 8% extra range is zero additional cost (same battery pack, software controlled range), and even with very low take rate, that $8K is 100% pure profit.

 

[EVNow]

the borrower’s ability to meet a future margin call,

Are you serious ? For PIF the Tesla stake is a piddly amount.

Besides, the whole point of PIF is to invest extra money they have. Why take margin debt ?

 

[defc0n]

I hate the idea of software limited packs.

 

[EVNow]

But in several weeks, not one person has mentioned, or even considered, the absolutely ~stunning~ drop in US sales/deliveries, as of Jan 1st..

In WA we lost more than what the fed tax credit - price cut is worth. Model 3 deliveries just went up.

BTW, are you a native English speaker ? If so, what you have stated as fact is speculative and you should know how to word that better.

 

[anthonyj]

Surprised the S didn’t get a range boost, considering that the Roadster is going to have 600+ mile range next year. Ready to buy that 420 mile range Model S

 

[kcveins]

Crazy. Who would pay for the extended range? Within 1-2 years, your range is going to be down the base one anyway...

My 85 Model S went from 265 miles to the current 235 miles at full charge - just hit 6 years and 122K miles, so I'm not sure the range will drop that quickly...

 

[alst]

Also we’d all be better off if posters like Karen didn’t feel the need to weigh in on every single development/conversation in the thread.

Exact opposite. We’d all be better posters if Karen felt the need to weigh in on every single development/conversation in the thread.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Very difficult to know at this stage.

The new $85k base car will make c.$5.3k more profit than the 75D but c.$8k less than the 100D. The 100D is also now $1k cheaper. It will drive some 75D buyers to trade up but also many if not most 100D buyers to trade down. It is difficult to know how this balances out and also hard to know Tesla's new target production levels.

I will be happy with 70-75k, but disappointed with 50-60k annual S/X target.

The 100KWh pack has been available Since August 2016. In older presentations I've seen that Tesla expect cell chemistry improvements to increase capacity by around 4%-6% p.a.

Potentially, they could still be able to produce 90k-100k S/X vehicles per year based on cell count production limitations if the number of cells required to produce 100KWh has reduced in the last 2.5 years. It is difficult to know if demand is there for that number of vehicles at the new higher entry price.

 

[RobStark]

Camry is 29mpg city, 41hwy, so there you go - 35mpg

According to EPA in Fantasyland it gets 34 Combined.

On Earth it gets 30.

0-60 7.5s. 2s slower than base 3. Not a wet noodle, more like al dente.

Not the best Sports Sedan Handling this side of $70k.

Not comparable.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Very difficult to know at this stage.

The new $85k base car will make c.$5.3k more profit than the 75D but c.$8k less than the 100D. The 100D is also now $1k cheaper. It will drive some 75D buyers to trade up but also many if not most 100D buyers to trade down. It is difficult to know how this balances out and also hard to know Tesla's new target production levels.

I will be happy with 70-75k, but disappointed with 50-60k annual S/X target.

These numbers only reflect the base versions. the lower unit count also reduces the number of vehicles getting that 100% margin autopilot upgrade - which covers around half of the margin made from the increased battery size by itself.

 

[GaryW]

I love the new model S pricing. I think the 300 mile option is a great bargain. I think many will upgrade the battery at some point.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

My 85 Model S went from 265 miles to the current 235 miles at full charge - just hit 6 years and 122K miles, so I'm not sure the range will drop that quickly...

I think they generally degrade as a percentage, not in raw miles. 335->310 is only 7.5%. My 2 year old S 75 is down 8.4%.

I think the newer batteries also degrade a little faster than classic S’.

 

[CorneliusXX]

However it also limits the ability to add range. You can't just decide to up the extended range version from 335 to 400, since then you would have to know the build date to know what you were getting. And how many names can they come up with?

Currently:

• Base
• Extended Range
• Performance

What would be next?

• Long Range? (nope that would conflict with the Model 3 since Model 3 LR = Model S Base. )
• Very long range? 400 miles?
• Extended Range performance? 350 miles? (That won't work)
  
• Ridiculously long range? 425 miles?
• Ludicrously long range? 450 miles?

They should have used the same description across models for similar range.

I think they have made a mess here, but I understand the reason for it.

A "Gran Turismo" version would sound pretty nice.

 

[Opus BC fan]

OT- posted for the graphics. I found the tone of the article to be offensive and FUDdy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...a28f2191131_story.html?utm_term=.df4468547d96

 

[GaryW]

Also we’d all be better off if posters like Karen didn’t feel the need to weigh in on every single development/conversation in the thread.

While I don’t agree with all her posts, I think her research and her insights are a valuable addition to this site. I hope she continues.

 

[RobStark]

...and I get at least 75mpg dollar equivalent in my M3 -- I'm really not sure what the point is?

Cost per mile.

Taking the price of standard gallon of gasoline and dividing by 35 to compare to the price of a Model 3 per mile when Supercharging.

 

[Singer3000]

Are you serious ? For PIF the Tesla stake is a piddly amount.

Besides, the whole point of PIF is to invest extra money they have. Why take margin debt ?

Yes I am serious. The sovereign is very far from awash with cash, given consistently low oil prices, high subsidies, an expensive and protracted war in Yemen and the deferral of the Aramco IPO. It's been running wild budget deficits. Go and have a look at the financials of its main banks and tell me if you think the financial system looks healthy.

None of us know for sure the rationale behind the (deliberately noisy) TSLA stock purchase but I'm not sure why you think they wouldn't take the leverage if had been on offer.