Honestly, even with their service issues(ask around, I've been pretty vocal about them), I wouldn’t buy or recommend buying any other manufacturer’s cars. Everyone else is making the past.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Honestly, even with their service issues(ask around, I've been pretty vocal about them), I wouldn’t buy or recommend buying any other manufacturer’s cars. Everyone else is making the past.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Fair point.
The Model S is after all... the top-selling car in its segment. There is literally no reason to update it unless this is about to change. Tesla sees the demand with much higher resolution and lower latency than us observers do. They can update the battery when they see demand trailing off... and not until then. The design work for the S+X 2170 battery pack may be half-done, simply awaiting a second pass following more learnings from Model 3 / GF1 manufacture.
These kind of surveys usually come in as stellar as it could be (in Tesla's case), then the number will drop a lot soon after shorts find out there is such a website. Shorts have computers too. Go figure. I found Tesla investors are generally good guys, and good guys are usually honest, sometimes too honest - they think everyone else is honest too.
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I sold today after the small run up before close. I'll be back slowly over the next couple of months as I don't see any catalyst for large increases in the sp and I don't see a short squeeze happening anytime soon. I'm also waiting to get back to a full allocation because of a few items that caught my attention need to play out:
- I don't see how they can roll out the Y, pickup, and semi with decreased capex. They also need to refresh MS and MX at some point.
- I don't understand why they haven't closed financing on China GF. I know it potentially sounds stupid to say, but why are they haggling over the details of a $500 mm loan when they have multiple banks wanting to lend them money? Pick the best one and be done with it. This needed to have been finished last month to hit 3k by this year. I know some on this board think it could be built in under 6 months but a lot more goes into manufacturing. They also need to get all their suppliers lined up and tested (I'm assuming they'll be using new, untested local suppliers for many parts), their workers and managers hired and trained, calibration, line tested, etc.
- Increased spending on services. I haven't had a single issue with my M3 but that is going to hurt margins as they attempt to hit 25% gm and while introducing the lower profit SR M3.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I'll get something rolling...
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
It’s just so effing funny to hear ‘TSLA missed analyst consensus on earnings’. Name one analyst who last year predicted that Tesla would not need to raise cash in 2018 and beyond to fund growth. Name one analyst who last year predicted TSLA would be profitable in both Q3 and Q4. Name one analyst who predicted FCF positive in a massive way for those Q’s.
The level of douchebaggery has reached epic proportions.
Edit: besides Trippin’ Trip.
The level of douchebaggery has reached epic proportions.
Edit: besides Trippin’ Trip.
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No need to be in a rush with China financing. They are generating huge increases in net cash flows and Elon said $500m to get to production in China.
Margins are increasing on automotive production as they get more efficient - allows for more spend in service without affecting overall numbers
Margins are increasing on automotive production as they get more efficient - allows for more spend in service without affecting overall numbers
I can’t speak for Tesla, but I can share my personal experience.
My business is going through a small capital expenditure project. Last year I financed $110k in capex and will be financing another $100k at the beginning of this year. The financing I received last year was in two installments, I actually signed the agreement literally days before I needed the funds to save interest. The same will be happening this year. I have the funding lined up, but it’s not official until the contracts are signed. I could’ve received all $220k last May but that would have been foolish.
Now, to speculate on Tesla’s Shanghai project, why would they want to be paying interest on $0.5 billion dollars while the site is still mostly mud?
I'm not sure why they what the benefit of waiting cash flow is. IMO selling 3k M3s per week for weeks or months sooner will vastly outweigh any benefit in waiting. My belief (as I've laid out my case above) is that if they want to hit 3k M3 this year, they need to move fast and now.
On the margin side, I don't believe the lower ASP combined with increased services will make up the difference in efficiency. A 25% gm on say ASP $45k would mean they have to be producing at $34k. In November, Elon said they could produce the car for $38k. They would have to shave at a minimum $4k off the cost of production to increase services. Note I think an ASP of $45k is very generous given the amount of demand for the SR M3.
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Now that Tesla is stable and cash flow positive, I was hoping Elon could set his sites on even bigger disruption:
Exotic island-based event packages. Solar/battery/desal will light a fyre on the industry
Exotic island-based event packages. Solar/battery/desal will light a fyre on the industry
Sincere question--isn't the reason the site mostly mud because they haven't closed financing? I am no expert but I'd have to imagine that they could use part of that loan to clear the site more quickly. It would be like not taking a loan to build a house until the cement foundation is complete.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Indeed, R&D that resulted in:
- AutoPilot technologies better than MobilEye's technology (sold for $15b),
- deployed on a vastly larger scale fleet than Waymo (valued $175b),
All of that self-funded while paying back debt.
I am no expert either but I don't think the preparation of the Gigafactory 3 is being impeded by a lack of funding. It sounds like full speed ahead there based on everything we see and here. Seems like you are grasping for reasons to be negative.
McMountain
Member
As a civil engineer - who admittedly has only looked at the few available fotos and videos - my impression is that they are doing massive ground treatment (gravel piles, maybe a bit of grouting) plus probably drainage works and that´s why the site is muddy. They cannot put up any structures without ground treatment in this kind of geology, so they are spending money all right - you just don´t see the result.
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You should go back and search for Vincent's on-site videos showing how big the site is, and how many pile drivers were needed just to shore up the site. Some things just take time, no matter how much money you have to throw at it.
And spending extra money just to build things faster isn't always a good use of time. If tooling takes 6 months to build and deliver, why would you want the building done in 3 months only to have it sitting empty for the next 3?
If you don't know what's involved in the building of something, don't assume the worse.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Quick New Mexico update:
We’re back on tomorrow afternoon. The bill will be presented by the sponsoring senator with a policy person from Tesla as expert witness. And a lot of us owners will be there to show support.
We’re back on tomorrow afternoon. The bill will be presented by the sponsoring senator with a policy person from Tesla as expert witness. And a lot of us owners will be there to show support.
Missing expectations but beating your own guidance makes the analysts look bad, not Tesla, right? So the stock of the analysts will go down.
MartinAustin
Active Member
OT
All of Tesla's New Inventory S+X cars have disappeared. There were about 140 Model S yesterday. (all 100D and P100D) Didn't see how many X there were.
New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla
New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla
I guess all of them are being taken to Anchorhead to have their memories erased.
When they are put back into New Inventory they will bear the new names.
All of Tesla's New Inventory S+X cars have disappeared. There were about 140 Model S yesterday. (all 100D and P100D) Didn't see how many X there were.
New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla
New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla
I guess all of them are being taken to Anchorhead to have their memories erased.
When they are put back into New Inventory they will bear the new names.
I'd say this ER was a feat of strengthApparently we are starting to confuse the ER with Festivus.
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