Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Regarding the March bonds that are about due, wouldn’t the bondholders prefer the stock to be low as the bonds became due? Then they could use the cash from the bonds to buy cheap stock, essentially maximizing their profits on the arbitrage. Is this correct? If it is, then I would not be surprised to see the stock tick lower until the bonds convert to cash then reverse the trend after March 1.

Plus if the China trade deal progresses well, then that would help lift the stock. I’m thinking March could potentially be where we start seeing more positive trends.

Any thoughts?

I think they would prefer 420 get the stock and sell it for 20% gain.

 

[KarenRei]

Premarket plunging? :Þ

 

[Pezpunk]

sure, TSLA, plunge 3% pre-market for no reason at all. why not.

 

[Fact Checking]

Premarket plunging? :Þ

Puzzling indeed, NASDAQ futures are up +0.5%.

Maybe Brexit fears and German slowdown fears? But my guess is, after this week's price action, that if this sustains then people might be trading on some material non-public information.

 

[KarenRei]

Puzzling indeed, NASDAQ futures are up +0.5%.

Maybe Brexit fears and German slowdown fears? But my guess is, after this week's price action, that if this sustains then people might be trading on some material non-public information.

I don't see the effect in other automakers. Commerce department report out early? I was planning to deleverage over the weekend and releverage afterwards because of it.

 

[Heart Land]

I think they would prefer 420 get the stock and sell it for 20% gain.

That is only if they are not long term investors. Then they would prefer the stock to be high when the bonds are due. So they can sell. But if you ARE a long term investor then you want the stock to be low when the bonds are due. So you can buy and hold, plus get the arbitrage from the cash.

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought I'd heard Elon say it, rather than my having read it. That said, I just scanned the Q2 & Q3 earnings call transcripts from 2018 and didn't see it. So, unless Elon made the comment on some other broadcasted event, such as the annual meeting, I was not correct in thinking I'd heard Elon say it ("fairly high level of confidence" is not as if 'certainty.')

I remember him saying it. We’ll pay in cash, then later possibly pay in combination of cash and stock and then lastly back to pay in cash.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't see the effect in other automakers. Commerce department report out early? I was planning to deleverage over the weekend and releverage afterwards because of it.

Yes, seems very $TSLA specific, including all the targeted price capping and mark-down this week.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Puzzling indeed, NASDAQ futures are up +0.5%.

Maybe Brexit fears and German slowdown fears? But my guess is, after this week's price action, that if this sustains then people might be trading on some material non-public information.

Why do it in premarket? You could easily dump shares without affecting the SP during market hours

 

[KarenRei]

Nasdaq futures falling on December retail sales fears:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

But other automakers not falling like this. Can't imagine what this has to do with Tesla.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why do it in premarket? You could easily dump shares without affecting the SP during market hours

Much cheaper to "mark down" a stock in the premarket due to low liquidity, trying to telegraph the day's price action and to scare away the index arbitrage algos.

It could also be a ruse. Or random noise. But one thing this is certainly not: investment advice.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Can anyone explain the logic behind why a major company buyout (super capacitors) that could potentially make Tesla another few years ahead of everyone else, causes their stock price to dive?
The subsidiary went up 50%

 

[Krugerrand]

I dunno why everyone scoff at Bill Gates' statements about EVs. Yes, there will be many various great electric cars to choose. Other manufactures will come (mainly from China, completely new startups and survivors of ICE purges).

If you think Tesla will have world-wide monopoly on electric cars, you are delusional.

You’re guessing, just like the rest of us and Bill Gates.

 

[Fact Checking]

Nasdaq futures falling on December retail sales fears:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

But other automakers not falling like this. Can't imagine what this has to do with Tesla.

Also only small effect on other retail dependent consumer electronics firms, such as $NVDA, which is still up in the premarket.

Could be something weird, like big shareholder divesting all shares and enhancing profits with put options, expiring tomorrow? That would give them an incentive to use the final million shares for some high visibility pressure selling tactics that mark down the price.

 

[KarenRei]

Also only small effect on other retail dependent consumer electronics firms, such as $NVDA, which is still up in the premarket.

Could be something weird, like big shareholder divesting all shares and enhancing profits with put options, expiring tomorrow?

Big shareholder divesting suddenly, premarket? That would be very strange.

 

[Fact Checking]

Big shareholder divesting suddenly, premarket? That would be very strange.

Edit: TSLA dropping together with NASDAQ, on U.S. recession fears, -1.8% core retail sales in December.

Not Tesla specific.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

sure, TSLA, plunge 3% pre-market for no reason at all. why not.

I see a couple of articles from seeking alpha about model 3 demand plunging. Maybe that's scaring stock holders into being stock sellers.

 

[Fact Checking]

I see a couple of articles from seeking alpha about model 3 demand plunging. Maybe that's scaring stock holders into being stock sellers.

So when the shorts are herding on TSLA it's usually highly visible on social media, stream of FUD articles plus the presence of the birds, fleas and other parasites here on TMC, trying to rattle weak longs.

Not seeing much of that though.

 

[KarenRei]

I see a couple of articles from seeking alpha about model 3 demand plunging. Maybe that's scaring stock holders into being stock sellers.

All dated yesterday. This was a sudden move.

 

[Fact Checking]

All dated yesterday. This was a sudden move.

Sorry, wasn't looking at my real time futures feed: the TSLA drop is 100% consistent with the big NASDAQ and Dow futures drop and the dollar weakening.

Core retail sales -1.8% on 0% expectations is really bad U.S. macro data.

Ugly red macro day.

On the plus side this will hold back the Fed and also might motivate Trump to seal the China "deal": he sure doesn't want to run a reelection campaign in a recession.