Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Every time there has been a change at Tesla, whether hardware or price, there are some who "just purchased but don't get". It's inevitable in a rapidly improving hi-tech product. The only way to avoid this is to buy just after a release. What would be helpful is if there was a "Date since last upgrade" and an "average number of days between upgrades" for each model. (The MacRumors site does this.)

TBH, If I'd just bought an S/XP100DL and then discovered it had been discounted by 40%, I'd be quite annoyed.

2-3k, fine, that's incremental...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Could it be that Tesla made a mistake in the new Model S and X pricing for the European configurators? A fully specced Model S P100D (now called Ludricous Performance) costs €110.000, while last year it was €165.000. That can't be right, can it? It doesn't align with US pricing for the Ludicrous Performance model.

 

[bhtooefr]

Jim Cramer: "I agree with Morgan Stanley that the news is more bearish than bullish. But that said... um... I want one."
Anchor: "But Jim, didn't you just get a Lamborghini?"
Jim: "... That was more my wife that wanted that one."

Hahaha

Converting bears one test drive at a time?

 

[KarenRei]

As always, with Tesla: only buy if you're happy with what you get at the price you're it, at that moment in time, and with an acceptance that things may radically change literally a day after your purchase goes through.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch: 14 minutes ago: Tesla stock selloff provides opportunity to be 'aggressive buyers': Baird

 

[Steve m]

The people who should be freaking out about a low cost bev is new ice buyers...

The value of what they just sank into a car is well melting away.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The battery pack on the SR is probably a software-locked SR+, but I actually don't expect the SR to be upgradeable to 240 miles. The price difference between the SR and SR+ is only $2k, and for that money you don't only get increased range and marginally improved acceleration, but also the partial premium interior. So the question is who would pass on the SR+ at purchase time and then be willing to shell out $2k (or more) later on without the ability to upgrade the interior and a fairly marginal range improvement.

The SR is there for 3 reasons I can think of:

• taxi-like services which are super-sensitive to cost and don't care about interior trim, colours, etc.
• to drive purchases of the SR+, possibly even of the MR
• to stamp on the negative "Tesla will NEVER make the $35k Model 3!" argument

* Because some people live in warm, sunny places and long-range electric + performance + autopilot is all they need to be happy.
(I live in a sunny-means-cold-right-now place with low traffic density, so long-range electric + heated front seats is what I need.)

 

[mongo]

Hmm... that's a bit confusing (and not as appealing then). I don't care so much for navigate-on-autopilot (our Ring Road doesn't exactly have a ton of forks in it ), but Summon had actually been kind of appealing to me (e.g. small parking spaces, parking spaces with meltwater puddles, etc, plus the benefit of using it for pranks ). Yet the way they describe Summon sounds like "Advanced Summon":

"Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really."

Meh, I'm not going to pay $3k just for Autosteer and TACC. :Þ Fogeddaboudit

Totally un-re-verified data based on past readings:
AP option includes user commanded summon (like it is now)
FSD option includes finding you in a parking lot.

Adaptive cruise (AP option) is great in the US, but I'm guessing in Iceland, the amount/ type of road/ driving is less helpful. I hear it is helpful in traffic (my experience is the Ford version which can't go under 15 MPH or so, so no stop and go, but great for keeping following distance).

Jim Cramer: "I agree with Morgan Stanley that the news is more bearish than bullish. But that said... um... I want one."
Anchor: "But Jim, didn't you just get a Lamborghini?"
Jim: "... That was more my wife that wanted that one."

Hahaha

Was that real or fiction?

 

[Artful Dodger]

On the contrary, white interior is already available for partial-PUP.

link?

 

[gwright]

Hmm... that's a bit confusing (and not as appealing then). I don't care so much for navigate-on-autopilot (our Ring Road doesn't exactly have a ton of forks in it ), but Summon had actually been kind of appealing to me (e.g. small parking spaces, parking spaces with meltwater puddles, etc, plus the benefit of using it for pranks ). Yet the way they describe Summon sounds like "Advanced Summon":

"Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really."

Meh, I'm not going to pay $3k just for Autosteer and TACC. :Þ Fogeddaboudit

I thought the same when I bought my S in December 2017. I love to drive the car...right?! I couldn't really get comfortable with it on my test drive in heavy traffic in Dallas. About 3 months in a friend let me take an extended drive in his X using NoP. I ordered the next day, with the appropriate penalty for being a late adapter - including not being able to include the additional cost in my financing. Even with the nags, it is hard to properly describe how good NoP is and the fatigue reduction it causes. I regret not buying initially so I could pay the lower price and include the cost in my financing.

 

[mongo]

link?

Verified on the configurator https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery

 

[dw4ngg]

Every time there has been a change at Tesla, whether hardware or price, there are some who "just purchased but don't get". It's inevitable in a rapidly improving hi-tech product. The only way to avoid this is to buy just after a release. What would be helpful is if there was a "Date since last upgrade" and an "average number of days between upgrades" for each model. (The MacRumors site does this.)

This would be a great well thought out idea.... def not an impulsive one

 

[schonelucht]

Actually, the FSD news is a huge positive, see the additional FSD information above from @ReflexFunds.

I'll believe it when I see it. So far all we have is Elon's hype. Back in 2016 at least he showed us a video...

 

[Tslynk67]

Could it be that Tesla made a mistake in the new Model S and X pricing for the European configurators? A fully specced Model S P100D (now called Ludricous Performance) costs €110.000, while last year it was €165.000. That can't be right, can it? It doesn't align with US pricing for the Ludicrous Performance model.

I checked with Tesla and although they didn't say "Yes, we reduced the price by 40%", they didn't say it was wrong either.

 

[S3XY]

There's no indication that the while interior will be available for either the Std or the Partial-PUP interiors. Futher, the PUP interior is definately NOT going to be available on either the SR or the SR+ and 'White' has been a futher upgrade to 'PUP'.

So knock off ~$400 on your estimate, which takes the SR's ASP back to ~$37K. I think that's a good estimate, and a level at which it will be profitable. Remember, 2 different groups (Munro, German Industry) have previously est'd the M3 cost to build at around $28K, and that's before these savings on materials and equipment with the SR.

Finally, Tesla now owns some of the trucking capacity it uses, so at least some of the profit embedded in that $1K Delivery+Documentation fee will stick to them, and that's over the entire S3X fleet, not just the SR.

So I'm gonna guess reaching a 25% profit margin on the M3 SR will happen by the end of 2019 (w.10K/wk production). Then it'll get even better in 2020 as GF3/Shanghai ramps up production.

Cheers!

...and Tesla semi's begin hauling deliveries and sometime later when they do it autonomously.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ummmm..... was that actually legal? It looked like it was under the "institutions only" rule, which doesn't allow individuals to buy it AT ALL, even if they're accredited investors. Maybe you shouldn't ask too closely whether Merrill Lynch was complying with the law... but they might reverse the trade if I'm correct.

Funny story. I had bought some of that 2025 debt at issue. Then the price immediately tanks. Then my broker’s compliance department realizes it is institutional only, requiring them to take it off my hands, they had to sell the position at a loss to them. I think it cost them $30k or so. Ever since I keep asking if any of it ever got registered so that I can buy it again (at a much cheaper price, of course). So far, no go.

 

[KarenRei]

Totally un-re-verified data based on past readings:
AP option includes user commanded summon (like it is now)
FSD option includes finding you in a parking lot.

I think the way it's going to work out is, if AP includes summon, I'll probably get it. If it doesn't, I definitely won't.

Was that real or fiction?

100% real. Cramer looked really sheepish when admitting that he wanted one. It shocked the other anchors.

I thought the same when I bought my S in December 2017. I love to drive the car...right?! I couldn't really get comfortable with it on my test drive in heavy traffic in Dallas. About 3 months in a friend let me take an extended drive in his X using NoP. I ordered the next day, with the appropriate penalty for being a late adapter

The largest city in my country is ~120k people.

The road going around my country is one lane non-divided, frequently curvy and rugged, sometimes unpaved in places, frequently snowed over, and with the constant risk of crossing sheep.

I've used Autosteer and TACC before. Not a big fan.

 

[Tslynk67]

I thought the same when I bought my S in December 2017. I love to drive the car...right?! I couldn't really get comfortable with it on my test drive in heavy traffic in Dallas. About 3 months in a friend let me take an extended drive in his X using NoP. I ordered the next day, with the appropriate penalty for being a late adapter - including not being able to include the additional cost in my financing. Even with the nags, it is hard to properly describe how good NoP is and the fatigue reduction it causes. I regret not buying initially so I could pay the lower price and include the cost in my financing.

Same here - thought it was a gimmick until I actually bought a car with AP2, now I use it all the time.

 

[sundaymorning]

Still wondering why there's no transcript of this media call at the very least. It's hard to rely on CNBC to give you fair coverage

If the share price does something wild like it did the day after the SEC, then I'm going full conspiracy and thinking some other stuff was said on the call. I mean if you look online through the typical media, no one is reporting about the updated guidance Elon gave for production/deliveries for 2019. Makes me wonder what other things were said that the media isn't reporting.

Also like you guys have said, I really hope Tesla has thought the return policy through and has a system in place where if someone does it once, they are unable to place another order for a year or two.

A test drive in the car voids returns. Hence, holding onto a car and driving it for about a week constitutes a test drive so a second purchase is non refundable.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Literally no one is going to do this free one week rental. The over under for 2019/20 should be 5-10 US instances.