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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Unless I've been asleep the last 10 years, they have been doing just that.
The key is to ignore the extraneous blabbering here and everywhere else. Just pull up a graph of TSLA revenue over time, everything else is just talking heads getting paid to talk, and the dinosaurs dismissing the arriving comet.
RT
Who would’ve thought the stock would drop 5% on the release of the $35k Model 3???
The stock drop is not for that sole reason. It's a lot of things, such as not being profitable for Q1 when Elon has said it before that every quarter going forward would be profitable.
Yes. I am. This is what I am seeing. It's in Dutch but should be self-evident.
Did they forget to add VAT to the number for the Performance Ludicrous Model S? Possible as well. But again, that's a mistake you most certainly do not want to make in Europe. And if you have your in house sales advisors confirm that price after explicit requests and leave it up for too long you start losing the 'honest mistake' defense and you become liable to deliver at the advertised price or face penalties.
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MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Not that I’m complaining, but Tesla just did that to a lot of current owners. If I try to sell my LR AWD now I will be losing a ton of money....
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Looks like $302 is close to the bottom. Remember, Wall Street is stupid. They didn't see Amazon coming either.
They are so deluded by the "Tesla is about to fail" idea that they don't yet understand the moat this will create for Tesla.
They are so deluded by the "Tesla is about to fail" idea that they don't yet understand the moat this will create for Tesla.
sweter
Member
Call me delusional, but I think there's a chance for green today.
Chartered321
Member
Today electric mobility has finally become a financially sustainable mass market reality.
For Tesla only, and for its customers.
Better days are yet to come.
For the other legacy automakers this price reductions mean additional months of cash burn.
Short term is for market manipulators, the long term belongs to Tesla
For Tesla only, and for its customers.
Better days are yet to come.
For the other legacy automakers this price reductions mean additional months of cash burn.
Short term is for market manipulators, the long term belongs to Tesla
I think they are likely just experimenting with repositioning the S/X line up.
Last year 75D was the majority of volume, 100D was the majority of profit and 100DP was tiny volume at very high margin but overall a relatively small profit contributor.
Now they plan for Standard range (90kwh?) and long range (100kwh) to be the majority of volume, but for Performance volumes to increase dramatically and become the key profit contributor.
I don't really understand the different bundling and pricing of Ludicrous mode between US and Europe though. I think they will likely update soon to match each other, maybe through a price reduction in the US.
Reasonable chance they also have a refresh coming in the next few months. Particularly for X where they no longer have a cheaper option despite not even having an affordable car in the same category (as with S and Model 3).
Thanks for the data. Aha, I see this is available from “teslastats.no”, and there is a toggle at the bottom to switch between pages showing all Tesla stats vs showing all EV stats, that latter providing comparisons between registrations of Tesla vs other EVs. Very nice. I haven’t figured out how to get it to show me the “EV” view for last month, ie February, with rankings of all EVs, now that the clock has turned over to March.
I am looking for similar data for other EU countries, especially Germany since I have a friend there who is a car enthusiast and new to EVs. Also I saw tables posted here comparing registrations for this month for Tesla vs other brands in Norway, with Tesla at or near top. Where might I find this info, across various European countries?
Thanks for the help.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Who would’ve thought the stock would drop 5% on the release of the $35k Model 3???
I think it's more of a reaction to the overall price drops and the Q1 profit warning. Again, Tesla is a high-tech company with one of the most complex, most cross-disciplinary business models, and as a result it is one of the least understood stocks even among professional analysts.
The Model 3 is like the Apple iPhone all over again: huge skepticism, constant criticism and an i-Gate every couple of months.
The usual rule applies: if you agree that Tesla is undervalued and if you are comfortable with the price as it is, buy and hold. Expect pain and heartburn if using leverage or options, and expect general investors to only accept Tesla progress once the evidence starts hitting them in the face. Might take years.
But time does offer a cure, eventually: today, 10+ years after the iPhone, AAPL short interest is below 0.85%.
It does not align with US pricing, so I still think it is a mistake and will be corrected. Tesla Amsterdam may also be in the dark.
BTW, I don't know about others, but as someone who's been waiting for the chance to buy their Model 3, my reaction to the announced price reductions wasn't, "I'm going to save money!", it was "I'm going to be able to add more options if I want to!"
I've always been staunchly, "EAP for $5k? Haha, no thanks." But with a major vehicle price reduction saving me money, and EAP only $3k now? I'm actually considering adding it. And that's pure profit for Tesla. It's like Tesla saying, "Hey, you don't have to give us as much money... but wouldn't you like to give us as much money?"
I was hoping the after sale price for a Model S EAP and FSD would have also dropped. It’s still 7k and 10k. Too much right now to warrant it IMHO.
Regarding the 'no profit in Q1 thing',,,while my initial reaction was disappointment, I think there is a bright side to this. By setting that expectation up front, they now have the ability to shift a bunch of (hopefully one time) expenses into this quarter. For instance, they could deliver a high percentage of base package Model 3's ASAP. Get them on the Q1 books. They already told people there would be a loss. Who cares if its a big loss or a little loss? If 1) cash flow remains strong and 2) this makes the rest of the year (and hopefully eternity) that much better, then I'm OK with it.
Now I understand this may be naivete on my part. And if you are short term/options trader you may get screwed. But for us longs, I think this may not be that bad of a thing.
Now I understand this may be naivete on my part. And if you are short term/options trader you may get screwed. But for us longs, I think this may not be that bad of a thing.
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Used/resale market for M3 is taking a depreciation overnight. Just checked some websites and asking prices have gone down.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
This is terrific data.
Is this kind of information only available for Norway, or is there a place to get similar data for other European countries, especially Germany (I have a friend in Germany who is a car enthusiast and very new to EVs).
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So, once again Elon gives the press, the analysts, and the overall market exactly what they had wanted/been complaining about - the $35K Model 3. And, he and Tesla once again get hammered for doing what has been asked (CNBC has been ripping this move as, among other things, showing there is no demand). I get that the 1st quarter "warning" is not wonderful to the markets. But, does this really matter? It is a one or two quarter blip that will to likely lead to major long-term gains. One of the many reasons Elon probably hates Tesla being a public company (the market's desire to focus on quarter-to-quarter minutia rather than the long-term big picture).
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