we know that the S&P inclusion process & criteria aren't exactly.... transparent. With the ongoing SEC turmoil, I'm getting afraid that S&P might not admit TSLA to S&P500 due to lack in "stability"/"governance"/.... or whatever they would call it. Is this fear justified in your eyes?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
we know that the S&P inclusion process & criteria aren't exactly.... transparent. With the ongoing SEC turmoil, I'm getting afraid that S&P might not admit TSLA to S&P500 due to lack in "stability"/"governance"/.... or whatever they would call it. Is this fear justified in your eyes?
I agree 100%. He *might* ask some other execs opinions on things, but might not, before making major decisions. I suspect that’s why many execs don’t last long at Tesla. Their egos can’t handle it.
Don’t know if you caught this story, but supposedly a few years ago, during development of the Falcon Heavy, Elon decided that, screw it, it wasn’t worth continuing to develop it. Gwen Shotwell heard this through the grapevine and ran through the offices to intercept Elon and remind him that the Air Force had a booked ride on the FH and there was NO WAY they could cancel it if they ever wanted any military business going forward. Gwen prevailed, obviously, and it turned out to be a PR goldmine if nothing else. So yeah, Elon does indeed make quick and painful decisions all the time, which is indeed a rare and usually valuable skill.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I use "Elon's hype" every day. It is amazing as it is, let alone what it will become in the next several months.
Dan
It’s a perfect way to get those undecided to pull the trigger. Money back guarantee. Perfect bullet to fight FUD campaign
If Tesla truly does have very advanced AI for their Autopilot and is able to leverage that for other uses, then it’ll be exactly like Amazon with their cloud business. I suspect their Supercharger network will win the DC charger wars too. And how about their battery cells?
Apparently Tesla Amsterdam is now confirming the 98,300 EUR price for a Model S PErformance ludicrous. To put that in American perspectives, after 20% VAT and 10% import tax this means a comparable US price of $84,000 for a Model S Performance with Ludicrous option. That's pretty much unbelievable. On the US configurator you'll get to $115,000 for exactly the same car. If true, that's a big price cut of nearly 30% off. I have no other explanation than a sever demand issue for the the S and X. Why would Tesla drop the prices that much????
Dynastar
Member
I think it's interesting to pause and consider a $70k 2013 S60 when new compared to a $37k 2019 SR+. Six years down the road the SR+ is better in almost every way except interior space. That's amazing progress, and exactly what Tesla was founded to accomplish.
Yes it is a change in strategy that will take time to understand (if you are willing to understand. Tesla has decided that cost improvement will come through economy of scale rather than optimization alone.
Margins on base model maybe non existent but it is a form of marketing. I would think that 90% will go with plus version which would increase margin by 5%, new AP pricing will increase margins further.
As to performance X and S - performance buyers paid premium for uniqueness and highest performance sacrificing some of the luxury. New high expensive entries from other manufacturers will compete nicely in that segment where cost is less of a priority. By lowering price of performance models Tesla is moving to higher volume, lower margin sales and likely counts on upgrades from non performance models. They did it successfully with P3D after all.
Margins on base model maybe non existent but it is a form of marketing. I would think that 90% will go with plus version which would increase margin by 5%, new AP pricing will increase margins further.
As to performance X and S - performance buyers paid premium for uniqueness and highest performance sacrificing some of the luxury. New high expensive entries from other manufacturers will compete nicely in that segment where cost is less of a priority. By lowering price of performance models Tesla is moving to higher volume, lower margin sales and likely counts on upgrades from non performance models. They did it successfully with P3D after all.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm gonna sit tight and hope we drift down toward $280 or lower then go all in with OTM Jan 2020s. Tempted to bet on a summer squeeze with Sep calls after a return to profits in 2Q and absurd base model orders.
What's the over/under on Model Y announcement and pre-order? That might be the decision maker. A return to profits and Model Y pre-orders is game over......if it isn't already game over.
What's the over/under on Model Y announcement and pre-order? That might be the decision maker. A return to profits and Model Y pre-orders is game over......if it isn't already game over.
Those Farmers Insurance commercials aren’t so whacked out, are they?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
While you might be right in the sparse semi-rural traffic of Iceland, in urban environments TACC and NoA is a godsend:
For whom TACC and NoA works on the daily commute route it's a game changer.
And that's the smaller neural networks with HW2 and HW2.5 basis. The new first generation Tesla AI chip in HW3 is already 20x faster, allowing the huge 'unified vision' neural networks Andrej Karpathy's team has already trained and qualified but which HW 2.5 can only run at ~1 FPS.
I really mean it: buckle up, you ain't seen nothing yet. If you can buy the FSD option for $3k now then I'd suggest doing it, to guarantee HW3 compatibility. HW2.5 will be in the first round of upgrades, but according to a leak that looks credible I believe Tesla will eventually be able to upgrade HW2 cars too.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
You know, I am becoming more and more convinced that the FUD campaign is just going to be an ongoing virus that will refuse to die completely...and to try is just a colossal waste of time and source of frustration. Tesla just needs to keep doing what they're doing. Eventually the facts will just be too hard to ignore and the talking heads just won't have an audience anymore. They are looking more and more foolish with every video they make and every article they write. It is only going to cost them their own credibility in the end.
Dan
I agree completely, some of his key strengths are:
- Ability to think from first principles rather than only being able to imagine incremental progress. This applies particularly to order of magnitude cost reductions for existing products and processes but also to new inventions.
- Agility and flexibility in decision making including a refusal to be swayed by the sunk cost fallacy
- A deep understanding of technology experience curves.
- Refusal to accept something is impossible if first principles say otherwise.
- Vision and ability to inspire employees and customers.
- Extremely strong capacity to digest and understand information on any topic and apply knowledge across disciplines.
T-Will
Member
Who would’ve thought the stock would drop 5% on the release of the $35k Model 3??? 
I figured it out. Tesla has reached a critical mass of vehicles. Elon will turn on the switch activating full AI in
Who would’ve thought the stock would drop 5% on the release of the $35k Model 3???
It dropped because Elon said no profit in Q1. Why would they even do a media event?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Pezpunk
Active Member
Who would’ve thought the stock would drop 5% on the release of the $35k Model 3???
me. literally ALL news is going to spun extremely negatively these days.
It used to be, Tesla got a lot of FUD and a lot of glowing press to go with it, and it would shoot up on good news, and shoot down on bad news.
on the one hand, irrelevant nonsense stories don't tank the stock anymore, but when Tesla does announce real news (regardless of what the news is) the stock jumps out a window. when all is quiet, that's when it creeps back up. it's dumb.
also this is just a trend i've noticed. i could be just seeing a false pattern in the chaos.
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