Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
The deferred revenue is related to the feature package Tesla actually sold - NoA and advanced summon come with EAP, so people who bought the initial FSD package still won't have any incremental features and I presume their revenue still cannot be booked. Old FSD and new FSD should be two completely different products for accounting purposes.
For the new FSD package sold this month, I expect Tesla will start booking some revenue, I'd guess $2k (out of $5k) can be booked for NoA and Advanced Summon. The rest will have to remain as deferred revenue until we get more features.

Agreed mostly, but note that EAP and FSD was never well-defined, so Tesla probably has some wiggle room of how much they declare as already delivered.

Also, the actual value sharing is discretionary as well: for example whether they define Navigate on Autopilot as 20% of FSD capabilities or 60% has a very real monetary effect on deferred revenue recognition...
 
The SEC case won't resolve within the next couple weeks, and deliveries won't be out for a couple weeks either. I have no clue over whether jitters will overcome the fact that someone seems to love buying up this stock in the $270s.
Wouldn't it be ironic if the judge in the SEC case comes back with a ruling the day before Q1 earnings come out? The little tiny corner of my mind that houses a conspiracy theorist would be jumping up and down at that point.

Dan
 
Not very good at this, but this is my take. The front looks like the semi. But the leaked picture we saw is from the back.


View attachment 387655
The rear pic looks like a hard cover, but I doubt it would be that simple. Maybe some sort of retractable or auto lifting hard cover?

Not just the look but the handling will blow away the others.
The Y is definitely in line with the BMW X6 type of styling/performance.
 
  • Like
Reactions: capster
VERY high
Obviously! The last decades have seen increasing reluctance of national governments to allow major employers to fail. Germany is no exception:
- right now Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are in teh process of a 'shotgun marriage'. Neitehr can fail, but both have serious weaknesses. Thus they are induced to join;
-years ago NSU was failing over the disaster of the Wankel Spyder and spectacularly the Ro80. Hence VW rescued and merged into the previous merged amalgam that was called Audi;
-several weak/failing aircraft suppliers/builders ended out joining the pan-European amalgam that became Airbus;
-I'll skip more detailed discussion of myriad other industries, regional champions and State-owned enterprises in Germany that merged rather tahn being liquidated. Frankly, Germany has less appetite for messy liquidation than do many countries.

The difference between German practice and many others is that the process often ended out working exceedingly well. Pretty good examples of that within the last few decades are Airbus itself, BMW with Glas; VW with NSU.

For TSLA investors this behavior is already evident. It is not outright merger, but is intellectual property exchange. With reference to BEV probably the first gigantic clue was the creation of CharIN. Then there is the major cooperation now going on with major auto suppliers (too cumbersome to discuss here) plus VW official platform sharing and disclosed plans for DB/BMW cooperation in BEV.

All this is not agile, but it is deliberate and determined. It also is very well thought out and planned.

So I think the question of manufacturer 'bailout' is not really the most relevant one. The relevant one is, IMHO, can traditional German methodology produce success is such a rapidly evolving field as BEV's? I think the answer is definitively YES!

These companies and their resources are not nearly as stodgy as they seem to be. Smooth progress: No, Success: absolutely.
 
Can't see a source for a breakout soon, just drift. The SEC case won't resolve within the next couple weeks, and deliveries won't be out for a couple weeks either. I have no clue over whether jitters will overcome the fact that someone seems to love buying up this stock in the $270s.

The SEC case probably won't be "resolved" for months I'd speculate: the judge signaled that she's open to allowing the scope of the contempt motion to be broadened - which is beneficial to Elon's line of argument but delays justice. But there's going to be some SEC lawsuit drama, in particular a predictable FUD campaign around the SEC's filing on March 19, which is tomorrow. The shortz are already turning up the SEC FUD volume to 11.

The Q1 deliveries and production report will probably be released on one of the following dates:
  • April 1, after market close on a Tuesday. I'd say the probability is 10% as there's no precedent for such an early delivery report.
  • April 2, before market open on a Wednesday. I'd say the probability is 60% as this is the latest historic precedent. 10% that they'd release it after market close on April 2.
  • April 3, before market open on a Thursday. Probability 20%: this is what they did in 2018 but it seemed an outlier to me.
That's 10-12 trading days left, including today's trading day.
 
Last edited:
I'm presuming that it'll be on the type approval. If not, what's the point?
Exactly. However, I am wary of the previous reluctance to include this in the approval even though there are fully capable tow kits for sale (or so we're told); it's just that they are illegal to use here.

And what would it cost Tesla to include it on the form, anyway? Cheap grease for a rather squeaky wheel.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Just pulled the trigger on FSD. I hope all features truly are ready by the end of the year, but I'm not counting on it. I just wanted to do my small part to push the mission forward and perhaps even nudge Tesla toward profitability in 19Q1. Lord knows my shares of TSLA would appreciate that!

Hey, in Europe, we didn't even get Navigate on AP yet!
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
So Tesla could probably recognize significant amounts of deferred revenue - if they wanted to. It's highly discretionary how software companies define the deferred revenue deliverables of complex capabilities that come with multiple sub-features.

I agree with this however I could see that the use of "Full" could be sticky. Had Tesla used the term "Incrementally Introduced Self Driving Features" it would be cleaner to incrementally recognize deferred revenue as I see it.
 
The deferred revenue is related to the feature package Tesla actually sold - NoA and advanced summon come with EAP, so people who bought the initial FSD package still won't have any incremental features and I presume their revenue still cannot be booked. Old FSD and new FSD should be two completely different products for accounting purposes.
For the new FSD package sold this month, I expect Tesla will start booking some revenue, I'd guess $2k (out of $5k) can be booked for NoA and Advanced Summon. The rest will have to remain as deferred revenue until we get more features.
A lot of us old EAPers have taken advantage of the FSD discount and would now fall into what you are calling the 'New FSD' category.
 
Conservative "free market totally not socialisms" Texas is trying to ban Tesla service centers now, not just galleries. Shocker that the dealers are behind this. They can see the writing on the wall, dealers will be out of business in 20 years. No more trying to rip people off with $800 for nitrogen filled tires.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/16/tesla-service-ban-texas/

A lot of us old EAPers have taken advantage of the FSD discount and would now fall into what you are calling the 'New FSD' category.
It looks like it will be a pretty decent chunk of cash that Tesla was maybe not expecting in Q1.
 
The rear pic looks like a hard cover, but I doubt it would be that simple. Maybe some sort of retractable or auto lifting hard cover?


The Y is definitely in line with the BMW X6 type of styling/performance.

I thought the rear was empty at first. Just trunk space. Then someone started saying it is glass. Ya, I don't see how glass cover can work on the back of a truck.