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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Carl Raymond
Active Member
The model Y event was interesting.
The car was never put centre stage.
They didn’t put a spotlight on it.
They didn’t spin the car so you could get a good look at it to appreciate its lines.
Of the half hour show, the Y saw only the last 5 mins.
They didn’t pop the hatch.
They didn’t mention or show the pano roof.
The car was obviously being deliberately undersold.
Conclusion is nothing new. Elon puts company performance first, share price second. By underselling the Y, it boosts 3 sales to people who might otherwise wait, but allows the stock to lull.
Musk knows that max growth will take care of the stock price eventually. Where will Tesla be in two years, is the question for investors to consider. Cars, solar, storage. GF1, GF2, GF3. It’s basic addition now. The key technical challenges are all solved, with future technical developments all being gravy.
The car was never put centre stage.
They didn’t put a spotlight on it.
They didn’t spin the car so you could get a good look at it to appreciate its lines.
Of the half hour show, the Y saw only the last 5 mins.
They didn’t pop the hatch.
They didn’t mention or show the pano roof.
The car was obviously being deliberately undersold.
Conclusion is nothing new. Elon puts company performance first, share price second. By underselling the Y, it boosts 3 sales to people who might otherwise wait, but allows the stock to lull.
Musk knows that max growth will take care of the stock price eventually. Where will Tesla be in two years, is the question for investors to consider. Cars, solar, storage. GF1, GF2, GF3. It’s basic addition now. The key technical challenges are all solved, with future technical developments all being gravy.
Next decision point in the case is 26 March. Parties are supposed to submit by that date whether they want an evidentiary hearing (e.g. if any basic facts are in dispute between the two parties, not interpretations). We don't yet know what the timeline will be like after that, or even whether there will be an evidentiary hearing.
Still, this isn't the sort of case that will drag on for years. All that we can say is: it won't be over before 26 March
The only other date we have is that the SEC needs to respond to Musk's statement by 19 March.
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WTF: "A retired science teacher said she was concerned the panels would prevent plants in the area from growing"
How long before TSLA buys shipping company
With new ships powered by sail and other solar. (I include windmills as rotary sails.)
davecolene0606
Member
Wait, you're saying that Tesla's problem is communication? I've never heard THAT suggested before
(They did actually explain the price cut on the S/X models, re: cutting stores creates company-wide savings, not just on the 3. They should have pointed out how the tax implications of price cuts in specific markets amplify the changes, however)
So re communication, tread lightly with requests to “dress up” or “smooth out” the message as this easily morphs to corporate double speak which can easily become parasitically endemic in the organization.
Again, Tesla is different. For the same reasons Elon dislikes the premise of adverts, I would surmise he prefers to lay off lathered up Corp speak coms as well.
Fire Away!
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You're 100% right about this.
Please keep us informed when competion shows up (in case we didn't notice), much appreciated!!!
.. then why even bother unveiling Y at this time? could have waited till the end of the year closer to production.
Raise cash for the build out and judge demand.
davecolene0606
Member
Couldn’t believe the first sentence didn’t start with... “a town in Florida”
Fire Away!
Was announced last year to be on 15th March, Elon would have been scorched for broken promises if they'd missed it.
There's a balance to strike. You want:
- Potential customers who are convinced a 3 doesn't suit them to not buy something else and to instead wait for the Y
- Anyone who's trying to decide between a 3 now and a Y later to choose the 3.
- Anyone who's interested in a Y but could potentially afford an X to start looking into the X more
- Model Y is just a big 3. Aka, a great car, but nothing worth delaying a 3 purchase for if a 3 already suits you.
- Model Y definitely provides more space for people and gear, but if you want even bigger and can afford it, there's the X.
If I were on Tesla's board I'd be initiating privatization talks at this point in time. As much as I selfishly want to participate in their growth, private Tesla will accomplish its mission much faster.
Personally, I wouldn't love anything more than to write up a farewell FU letter to WS (and the SEC) exposing the rules of the game of the modern financial services industry in an easy to digest language.
Just bought more TSLA at $269.
Personally, I wouldn't love anything more than to write up a farewell FU letter to WS (and the SEC) exposing the rules of the game of the modern financial services industry in an easy to digest language.
Just bought more TSLA at $269.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've another theory. To pre-empt any leaks. As they start working with parts suppliers for Y - the information will get leaked.
Ofcourse, you could say leaked info is also good news ...
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Yes, good question. Maybe production path too is being undersold. Or my left field theory is they will make it in China, hence they committed to a reveal date, then on seeing how fast/cheap/welcoming China was they changed tack, suffering a delay on the pause.
In fairness to her, it *looks* like she was referring to plants immediately around the panels, where they could get less sunlight due to shade cast by the panels. Of course, she also cited worry about solar panels causing cancer so...
Wait..so didn't Waymo and the rest almost solve these edge cases (the 1%) albeit in a geofenced area? so IMO it's not like FSD is not presently possible. It is being done by a few and they have been doing it ok (or well) - Can Tesla do the same to get brownie points and not be called a liar every few days? I would want them to to get rid of all this FUD and stupid manipulation of the stock.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Firstly, they did the Model Y unveil because it was time to unveil it and Elon previously indicated a March 15 unveil.
Secondly, there were several good reasons to unveil the Model Y:
- It's a clever "demand lever" to increase demand for other Tesla products:
- Now that people know what features the Model Y is going to include and which features are Model X only, they might go for the Model X instead.
- Or they might go for the Model 3 seeing the production schedule.
- The Model Y unveil was widely watched live, but also the recorded video. It created a lot of mostly positive publicity for Tesla - some of which will turn into more Q1 sales.
- The Model Y will also have an Osborne Effect on ICE SUVs, like the Model 3 dropped U.S. demand for the BMW 3-series or for the Toyota Prius. Every gascar not sold is a win for the mission and would create pent-up demand for initial Model Y production runs.
- The Model Y configurator and $2,500 deposit allows Tesla to measure the option mix and demand of the Model Y much more accurately than the $1,000 Model 3 preorders allowed them to do. By having a much better idea of various options (such as 5 seat vs. 7 seat, or Performance versus LR) they can plan better. They'll know the long-range RWD versus AWD mix, and they'll also know whether to plan for 0.5 million, 1 million or 1.5 million units per year.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
They won't make in China for US/EU markets.
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