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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Just FYI previous guidance of (slight profit in Q1) was later changed to (not expecting profit in Q1 and slight profit in Q2).
Note: I used parentheses because I don’t remember exact wording.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Trying to get a handle on total deliveries for Q1.
Deliveries in Norway look phenomenal— over 4500 for the quarter, and if the delivery pace of recent days holds up, likely to be 6500-7500 Teslas in Norway alone.
Deliveries in Europe as a whole look good, though there’s less data available. Norway was just over 21% of all Model 3 registrations in February. If that holds true for March, it implies Europe-wide deliveries of ~30k Model 3. This also fits what we’d expect from the shipping data we have.
Deliveries in China are even less clear. Tesla sent the same number of ships (8) to China as they did to Europe, but most people seem to believe they sent fewer cars per ship. Also, the customs delay may mean China has more cars in-transit at the end of the quarter which end up getting delivered in April. I’d expect around 15k deliveries in China, but there seems to be significant upside & downside to that number. If anyone has better data from China, please let me know.
So, I’m expecting around 45k Model 3 deliveries from outside of North America, which would have seemed crazily optimistic to me at the start of the quarter. If anyone has a good reason for me to lower my expectations, please let me know.
Deliveries in Norway look phenomenal— over 4500 for the quarter, and if the delivery pace of recent days holds up, likely to be 6500-7500 Teslas in Norway alone.
Deliveries in Europe as a whole look good, though there’s less data available. Norway was just over 21% of all Model 3 registrations in February. If that holds true for March, it implies Europe-wide deliveries of ~30k Model 3. This also fits what we’d expect from the shipping data we have.
Deliveries in China are even less clear. Tesla sent the same number of ships (8) to China as they did to Europe, but most people seem to believe they sent fewer cars per ship. Also, the customs delay may mean China has more cars in-transit at the end of the quarter which end up getting delivered in April. I’d expect around 15k deliveries in China, but there seems to be significant upside & downside to that number. If anyone has better data from China, please let me know.
So, I’m expecting around 45k Model 3 deliveries from outside of North America, which would have seemed crazily optimistic to me at the start of the quarter. If anyone has a good reason for me to lower my expectations, please let me know.
anthonyj
Stonks
It’s following macro movements today for sure, but usually when TSLA is this oversold it acts stronger than macros
Mid tier institutions are sick of the SEC nonsense and the stock has been dead money since 2014. I think we can see a short squeeze to $330, but $250 is almost certain at this point without bullish news
K_Dizzle
Member
Really? Do you think it’s because of unsold cars or undelivered? If they’re undelivered the profits will just show up next Q. Seems like a weird thing to obsessed about
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Deliveries in North America are uncertain as well. Depending on which estimate you believe, anywhere from 12k-20k Model 3 were delivered in the US through Feb. Assuming no end of quarter push, that implies 18k-30k for the quarter. Obviously, there’s a big end of quarter push, so that range should be more like 25k-40k M3 deliveries in the US. Add in 7k in Canada and 1k in Mexico, and you have 33k-48k M3 deliveries in North America.
With those numbers, it’s hard to see less than 70k Model 3 deliveries, even with a lot of cars in-transit. I’m assuming S/X deliveries will be low (18k) due to seasonality & getting rid of the 75D, but total vehicles delivered should match or exceed Q4. Less revenue, probably, because fewer S/X and more 3, but vehicle totals look really strong.
Someone talk me down from my optimism.
With those numbers, it’s hard to see less than 70k Model 3 deliveries, even with a lot of cars in-transit. I’m assuming S/X deliveries will be low (18k) due to seasonality & getting rid of the 75D, but total vehicles delivered should match or exceed Q4. Less revenue, probably, because fewer S/X and more 3, but vehicle totals look really strong.
Someone talk me down from my optimism.
Also it would help against cold weather range loss and if you just want to plain have fun accelerating when driving
I was going to further defend the 250 mi solution (only because it's affordable), when I discovered that the target range for gas is about 400 mi. Ya, that's the baseline I guess for an economy car.
Oh well... did the stock move yet?
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In my portfolio, TSLA did better than any of the others. I felt TSLA held up better than normal under these macro conditions.
My only concern was the end of quarter referral program from yesterday - means they was still inventory to get rid of. But hopefully will result in even more sales.
Frankly I see 70k Model 3 deliveries as a done deal with Bloomberg also being accurate on production of 78,000. Model S/X will be fewer of course but even the numbers from the New York Times support what we have seen as they really only cover January sales. "I'm so happy about the future of Tesla."
But... FUD is incredibly strong right now. Deliveries of 88,000 vehicles could very easily be received as 88,000 vehicles with low margins so nothing will happen on the delivery report. Also, that really isn't a big move up from Q4 due to Model S/X having a decrease in production. (we think) . Now, earnings will probably have to move the stock if margins are decent enough. I have no idea what decent enough would be but we should remember the Europe and China deliveries are all LR so I don't expect it to be bad.
But.. FUD can still say that Q1 earnings are just temporary because Europe and China are working through their backlog and demand is about to fall off a cliff.
So in conclusion "I'm so happy about the future of Tesla" but I have no idea when the stock will move upwards in price.
Deliveries just one number. But the recent sale in AP/FSD should nicely negate the lower margin SR+ and move everything more to atleast MR or more ...
If they didn't have inventory at the end of the quarter, that would be a bloody miracle.
Remember "Sold out in EU" -- what are the chances for the same in China, US
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