Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dangerous Fish]

We can't bring up Jay Leno without referring to this memorable clip:

He's completely correct of course. Horsepower does cure a lot of problems.

 

[Tslynk67]

What do you use to look at AH volume?

Just CNBC's ticker/news page. I hate their coverage of Tesla, but I think the ticker is the best, especially since Yahoo's went whacko:

TSLA: Tesla Inc - Stock Quote and News - CNBC

You can also setup a watchlist that show PM/AH prices and volumes, which then syncs with their iOS app:

 

[bhtooefr]

But personally I think this gives too much benefit to gas as they measure delivered electricity but do not count the refining and transport to the gas station. Refining is at least another 4 lives of CO2 per gallon.

UCS's data includes upstream emissions for both gasoline and electricity per GREET 2017, including all greenhouse gas emissions (not just CO2).

 

[jbih]

In Germany, Tesla sold 1092 cars in February (+524.0% compared to Feb 2018) and 1229 cars in Jan+Feb (+416.4% compared to Jan+Feb 2018).

Source: Kraftfahr-Bundesamt Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 06/2019 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im Februar 2019

I expect that we can download the sales numbers for March in a few days as well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would fully expect a concerted effort tomorrow by the dark side to drive the price as low as possible. Effort to mitigate any gains from possible positive numbers coming out regarding sales.

Hmmm, whereas I'd expect the more typical 'buy the rumor, sell the news' kneejerk action. Guess we'll see, wot?

Cheers!

 

[Carl Raymond]

ICE automobile industry is about $3 trillion, global oil sector about $2 trillion. Together that's about 6% of the global economy.

Does that include maintenance, crash repairs, insurance?
Sales is a move from A to B. These three will mostly evaporate.

 

[Don TLR]

We can't bring up Jay Leno without referring to this memorable clip:

Jay, Joe Rogan, MKBHD and people like this are good to have promoting your product..

 

[RobStark]

They are just baiting Elon to tweet something material or something offensive to tank the stock. Happens too often that he gets baited. He should have someone ban all these shorts.

Elon should really hire an intern to go through his social media accounts and just ban trolls all day.

 

[VValleyEV]

But personally I think this gives too much benefit to gas as they measure delivered electricity but do not count the refining and transport to the gas station. Refining is at least another 4 lives of CO2 per gallon.

Here is my point that is relevant here: this graphic is a good way to get attention to how much better EVs are for the environment, right now, in simple everyday MPG terms, which helps with dispelling FUD which helps EV adoption which helps Tesla which says, someday it might help the SP.

Once that point is recognized, you are ready to add three more cards up your sleeve:

1. This assumes there is zero emissions cost for extracting, refining, and delivering fossil fuel, they know that is not true, so EVs are better yet.
2. This assumes an average EV efficiency. If one were to use the top 3 efficient EVs, which includes the Tesla Model 3, the graph turns all red/good, meaning that even in the dirtiest power regions, Tesla M3s generate way less emissions per mile than ICE vehicles.
3. Remind them that the power plant emissions levels are continuing to drop, so emissions from using an EV will continue to get lower, while ICE will not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where all dem 'birds at?

 

[oneday]

Elon should really hire an intern to go through his social media accounts and just ban trolls all day.

I’m assuming you mean “block”? I think there might be an issue with how Elon uses twitter for public disclosure. I think his attorneys could draft a policy though and probably should. And interns could follow that policy. Not sure if it would help all that much though.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Plus the electrical utility industry at 25.6M GWh or $3 trillion.

You would think there would be alliances between electrical power generators and EV manufacturers. Energy demand has plateaued, EVs represent a new market.

Unless of course, refinement of gasoline uses more energy than the equivalent EV energy.

 

[Foxtrotter]

Once that point is recognized, you are ready to add three more cards up your sleeve:

1. This assumes there is zero emissions cost for extracting, refining, and delivering fossil fuel, they know that is not true, so EVs are better yet.
2. This assumes an average EV efficiency. If one were to use the top 3 efficient EVs, which includes the Tesla Model 3, the graph turns all red/good, meaning that even in the dirtiest power regions, Tesla M3s generate way less emissions per mile than ICE vehicles.
3. Remind them that the power plant emissions levels are continuing to drop, so emissions from using an EV will continue to get lower, while ICE will not.

View attachment 391277

No, you should read the article that came from. And my attached comment that the figure shown was for the efficient EV's like the Model 3.
Here is a quote as to their methodology:
"To compare the climate-changing emissions from electric vehicles to gasoline-powered cars, we analyzed all of the emissions from fueling and driving both types of vehicles. For a gasoline car, that means looking at emissions from extracting crude oil from the ground, getting the oil to a refinery and making gasoline, and transporting gasoline to filling stations, in addition to combustion emissions from the tailpipe."

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon Musk on Twitter

This is nice, but I think Elon should focus on using human ATP via Neuralink to charge car, and solve the obesity epidemic at the same time

 

[SPadival]

FYI, Bloomberg tried to click-jack the Model Y unveiling to push their FUD, but failed miserably.

S Padival on Twitter

They are getting more and more brazen with their FUD, but thankfully it is turning into a DUD.

 

[RobStark]

GM says no cut in Chevy Bolt sticker price as U.S. tax credit for EVs drops | Reuters

 

[AndyH]

OT

OT: (but might be indicative of what will happen to Tesla in Germany)

There is a very Tesla critical car magazine called Auto Motor Sport (they were caught doing some extremely dodgy/false/defamatory Tesla tests before). They just published this one:

Oberklasse-Restwerte: Tesla überholt Porsche

Which is about Tesla toppling Porsche from being the best car when it comes to retaining its resale value in Germany. While I detest Auto Motor Sport, I don't think we should discount this piece of news as little: Germans justify their Porsche purchase with resale value - it is one of the ways to rationalize a "crazy" car purchase. If Tesla is better than Porsche in this discipline, it will go a long way to swing private car buyers in Germany...

The Swedish Auto Motor Sport has been less fuddy about Tesla. A recent article was done by their test team: Used Tesla Model S vs new Volvo.
4 out 5 wanted the used Tesla since they thought it was better. The 5th chose neither Model S or Volvo. He wanted a Model 3 instead.

 

[RobStark]

I’m assuming you mean “block”? I think there might be an issue with how Elon uses twitter for public disclosure. I think his attorneys could draft a policy though and probably should. And interns could follow that policy. Not sure if it would help all that much though.

If trolls want to read material info they can look at Elon's feed unlogged.

Or said intern can post any tweet with numbers dates or Tesla projections simultaneously on Tesla account.

I think it would help. No harm in doing so.

 

[M3Rider]

Year Low    High   NG
2014 32.81% 39.56% 27.45%
2015 33.13% 34.06% 32.59%
2016 35.01% 31.16% 33.65%
2017 37.34% 30.55% 31.95%
2018 36.83% 28.12% 34.89%

Last year had a noticeable jump in overall demand, mostly met by natural gas. And we're now beginning to see some decrease in nuclear as it's retired and NG takes its place. But still the clearest trend is that high carbon generation is decreasing rapidly, replaced by natural gas and renewables.

So, the picture will look even better in 2 years.

I think there might be some issues in this regard...
1. Many nuclear reactors are operating at a loss and may close soon... These don't have much of a carbon footprint, but will have to be replaced by NG in the near term, which is fossil fuel and makes things worse.
2. Per @neroden , NG is a byproduct of oil extraction, so when oil consumption goes down and oil companies go bankrupt, naturally there will be less NG available & I think it is not very profitable to just extract NG on its own.
We also use NG for cooking and heating.

So, it seems NG prices will shoot up...we might be able to replace gas ranges with electric and gas heaters with electric heat pumps at home, but powerplants will need to replace NG with something else fast, considering we'll add to our electricity consumption due to less NG at home.

 

[RobStark]

Daimler, Geely will relaunch Smart as China-based EV brand