Inflection Point?
I am having a hard time reconciling the latest statements from Elon regarding FSD, autonomous cars and the SP. It is well known on this board that Waymo has a private market cap of twice or more compared to TSLA. I am still not sure what Waymo is selling right now outside of the future FSD that they promise. But they have been anointed the future market leader and as such it is posited that will have access to the dominant leader position in what has been advertised as perhaps a two trillion dollar market.
Even based on that, TSLA SP makes no sense (although is explained with all the mostly nefarious powers that we know are aligned against TSLA, with good reason as far as they are concerned). Maybe Tesla is behind Waymo... but so much so that their FSD program should be assigned a zero or perhaps even negative number?
But now we have Musk stating "game, set match" on FSD in the next 6 to 18 months. The demonstration of FSD capabilities that Elon claims are still improving exponentially (with a new chip board which has NOT been maxed out on its processing power even will full frame processing from all eight cameras) is to take place on the 22nd. What if Elon is on target (and he is a lot more frequently than the MM or plenty of people on this board give him credit for)?
If Tesla is suddenly and undeniably ahead of Waymo or any other autonomous driving company based on its demonstration, does WS come around and agree that maybe another 20B should be added to TSLAs market cap? 50B? How about equal footing with Waymo at 100B? That would triple the SP from here, not taking into account that the upward violent movement would definitely and finally trigger a short squeeze of epic proportions. And it would not reflect an actual market that exists, in the same way that Waymo's market cap is based on a market that does not yet exist.
What if the demonstration is really meh and Elon has truly lost it? Does this mean the SP should collapse? Its FSD program is already valued at zero. I would expect some downward movement, but so much negativity is priced into the SP right now, the only way I see it continuing to descend would be hard confirmations that demand has really dried up and that no one wants to buy Tesla cars.
In trying to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes, I am coming up with great risk / reward analyses that pound the table on a probable dramatic SP price rise, although tamped down as best as possible by all the usual FUD methods. It is not possible to time exactly when this would happen, although April 22nd might be the date. Probably not.
TSLA has been range bound for almost two years now. Its position is vastly improved compared to two years ago. If FSD is demonstrated at a high level in addition to the advancements of the past two years, we should see a SpaceX launch on the SP.
Elon, you still look stressed and tired, and no one has more reason to be than you, insofar as your workload and competition. Please tell me you are on the mark here. Yeah, you left yourself an out that maybe you are wrong. But you also said you do not see it, and once again, the 99% of the global data input Tesla receives on a daily basis to train its NN because of the FSD sensor ready fleet of 400K plus cars already on the road concludes with 'game, set, match' Tesla.
I know that the bears are engaging in their usual ridicule of the whole affair and will continue full throttle until they are all dead from old age, but if this FSD demo lives up to its hype, there are plenty of deep pocketed powers that will be willing to jump on the bandwagon, FUD be damned. Might even see Buffet, step up to the plate. How else would he hedge against the possible long term terminal decline of his car insurance profits?
Yeah, I have a lot of TSLA stock for me. But am thinking of increasing position dramatically.
Would love to get knocked down here with solid arguments. If all you got is that Musk has lost his marbles, please do not bother so much as I am taking that into account.
As always, I seem to be a contrarian indicator. Do not take my advice. There are plenty of financial advisors out there you can rely on. Do not listen to me. And don't buy any individual stock that you can not afford to mark down to zero the next day.
