Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sloperaly]

Edit: There is also no part of the mission that is better served by leaving a bad taste in mouth of Tesla's customers. Apple charges silly prices with exorbitant margins. But the owners rarely feel slighted in terms of pricing because the premium they paid is almost never discounted against.

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Everyone knows that all you have to do with ApolA is wait a few months for the next iteration and the one before it will go down in price. The 8, 8s and 9 are ridiculously cheap in comparison to the original prices. ANY cat you take off the lot and drive fif as little as 500 miles (or a month) renders it thousands less so if you want to wait a midel year for snyanyth to see its price difference and take your chance (up or down) no one stops you from doing this.
In actuality they are paying the price for all the confusion so I get part of the argument that says there's no consistency. I just don't get the personal perspective- no one tells you when to buy. What if, as Elon says, you pick a good time to buy, then the price goes up afterwards... should he ask you for his money back?

 

[Sloperaly]

I don't agree. Tesla also moved the LR RWD Model 3 to store/phone only. Does that mean Tesla can't sell the LR Model 3 at enough margin? Tesla needs to reduce variations in order to streamline the production and shipping logistics, which in turn will improve quality and reduce cost, that's ultimately good for the customers.

I fully support what Tesla is doing, do what makes sense for the business. Without the business, there will be no cars at any price. I hope Tesla will continue to improve efficiency, improve quality, continue to offer the most compelling products to the world.

Many people ignore the fact that the Standard Plus Model 3 is so compelling at this point, it has no competitors. Name one product, electric or ICE, on the market or in the pipeline, that can be listed as a decent competitor. I would love to hear about a decent competing product and compare them in details.

If you try to find a competitor from ICE side, please keep in mind this Model 3 doesn't consume gasoline, performs better than ICE cars, better safety, comes standard with Autopilot, glass roof, navigation software, power seats, phone entry, and many more. Also the Model 3 is likely to get much better resale value than the ICE cars.

Also, when you get an ICE car it just gets crappier as it gets older. Mine has only gotten better and cooler with updates. Other car manufacturers say cya at your 5K mile visit since they can charge me $800 bucks for an oil change and filters. I imagine my brakes after 6 months to look like nearly new brakes...!

 

[bdy0627]

I have one big worry for 22nd April and it's that a summoned Tesla accidentally runs over Adam Jonas foot. Preferably when no one sees.

Oh, how I worry about that... /s

Please let it be Tamberino. That will at least support his next Sell! rating.

 

[davecolene0606]

This is my frustration. Musk seemed to decide they didnt need a capital raise so they didnt do one. A lot of analysts following Tesla seem to think they need to or should do one. Now if they need to do one they will be doing it from a position of weakness at a stock price $100 cheaper. Consider that Tesla is very leveraged right now. It might work out well, but it could also back fire if the global economy hits a slowdown. In my mind the responsible thing to do would have been an equity raise. I dont play options nor do I own any stock on margin though.

“Very leveraged”, compared to? If there is cash flow to support any level of debt (heavy or not), what level of leverage is “acceptable?

I look at a company sitting on a pile of cash as a lousy example of capitalism. Capital should be deployed and working towards producing value. (Read sustainable transport and energy products)

I keep hearing folks saying Tesla is to leveraged and in the same paragraph saying they need to raise cash, ya know, just in case.... in case what? When I hear these arguments, I hear no confidence the the product can sell at sustainable levels.

I see everything pointing towards ability to sell everything Tesla can produce at positive margins. (Insert hundreds of pages of discussion and 2012 to present sales figures here)

Only questions for stockholders “are they selling.” “Is it a positive margin on each product”. The rest is about how quickly expansion can be accomplished without being subverted by opposing interests and rent seekers.

Fire Away!

 

[Fact Checking]

Please let it be Tamberino. That will at least support his next Sell! rating.

It's a self driving fleet, so I cannot see why it couldn't be both of them!

 

[sparcs]

Does anyone know what the analyst consensus is for Q1?

 

[bdy0627]

It's a self driving fleet, so I cannot see why it couldn't be both of them!

If that happens then we know AI has come a REALLY long way!

 

[pdq]

Another interesting interview on autonomy.

A few key points:

• Elon thinks autonomous cars should be worth 5-10x non autonomous cars for the next 5-10 years.
• Elon expects Teslas to be an appreciating asset from here.
• The new FSD computer is able to run cameras at full frame rate full resolution non cropped and it still has headroom on one computer. The FSD computer is 2 SoCs with full redundancy. It is like a twin engine commercial aircraft, it will work best if both systems are operating, but it can operate safely on one. Currently there is no need to use both SoC.
• In 6 months hands on wheel detection may be removed for parts of autopilot. For this he thinks he needs statistical evidence that incidents per mile are 200% better on AP than human driving. Need to asses probability of crash, injury, permanent injury and death.
• Driver vigilance/attention is very quickly going to be a moot point. Maybe this year but definitely next year human intervention is going to reduce safety.
• Elon thinks the race for self driving cars is already "game set and match" to Tesla. "I don't want to be complacent or overconfident, but that is literally how it appears right now, I could be wrong but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone."

While I loved my P90D, I think the whole conversation amongst car companies (not just Tesla) is a bunch of propeller heads saying how incredible FSD will be, and it being "right around the corner". Has anyone sat back in their chair and thought about the practicality of FSD? You can't use it on major highways in gridlock traffic or in large cities, as it will try to maintain a good, safe distance from the car in front of it which means other drivers and taxi cabs will jump into any opening. You will be lucky to move. Going cross town in mid town Manhattan during daylight hours? Hahahahaha!!!!!

I think that this a poster child case of a zoomy technical solution searching for a practical problem to solve. And that includes all car companies in addition to Waymo, Google and whoever else has thrown their hat in the ring. Let me be clear -- I'm not bashing Tesla -- I'm calling into question the whole topic of autonomous FSD cars from ANY company. All people want to talk about is the technology, not the fundamental value proposition behind it.

 

[tinm]

I’ve been reading twitter threads flowing from tweets by Musk and Cathie Wood on this topic. Quickly concluded that what we think isn’t going to matter much. Joe Average will NOT wrap his head around the concept of an appreciating car - he will have to see it. It runs counter to all that Joe has witnessed during his life as a car owner.

Kudos to Tesla for organising the investor day. It will help. But I won’t be surprised to see FUD articles ridiculing Musk’s car that gains value. They have a ready audience of like-minded people.

I have difficulty with all the talk of an appreciating car. It reminds me of the “think of it like an investment” talk I heard when getting estimates for solar at my house. I won’t be persuaded that way.

Oh: also... why would anyone ever buy a Performance version of a Tesla with FSD in the future? The way Elon talks about FSD, it sounds like people who love driving and love their Performance cars are going to be the horse riders he speaks of. I wonder if he realizes he could wind up anti-selling Tesla’s high-margin cars with this talk.

 

[davecolene0606]

View attachment 397306


http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019/04/u-s-auto-sales-brand-rankings-march-2019-ytd/

Accord to GCBC Tesla ended 2018 with 1.18% US market share.

Tesla ended Q1 2019 with .768% US market share.

You mean will end 2019 with a .768? or are the years wrong?

Fire Away!

 

[mongo]

In a nutshell, either @neroden is wrong, or Musk is wrong. Akin to an unstoppable force hitting an immovable object.

I have great respect for both, but Musk is in a position to know more. On the flip side, Musk gains, albeit only temporarily, by underestimating the timeline to FSD. Neroden did calculate that Tesla can safely take back those full term lease cars and still sell them at a profit even without FSD capability. It costs Tesla nothing dollar wise to run this gambit, only reputation damage should FSD remain ‘one year out’.

Looking forward to the 22nd.

Boring is also planning on using 3s for Loop projects. So perhaps Boring is going to buy the lightly used off lease 3s and add guide wheels (if needed). It would also make sense for Tesla Network to use Loop as much as possible.
Las Vegas — The Boring Company

What is an AEV?

Standard AEVs are Tesla Model X and Model 3 vehicles. High-occupancy AEVs use a modified Tesla Model X chassis to transport up to 16 passengers with both sitting and standing room.

 

[mongo]

I have difficulty with all the talk of an appreciating car. It reminds me of the “think of it like an investment” talk I heard when getting estimates for solar at my house. I won’t be persuaded that way.

Solar is an investment, especially if added at build time/ inital mortgage. It can produce positive returns from day 1.

As to cars, sure don't use them as an investment (buy TSLA instead), but if the price of the car goes up after you buy it, then resale can be on par or better than your inital purchase price. If the car earns you more than the monthly payment (or depreciation) , even better.

Oh: also... why would anyone ever buy a Performance version of a Tesla with FSD? The way Elon talks about FSD, it sounds like people who love driving and love their Perfirmance cars are going to be the horse riders he speaks of. I wonder if he realizes he could wind up anti-selling Tesla’s high-margin cars with this talk.

You can still drive manually, and take it to a track. The comparison is between a fun fast car that can also drive you to work (or to Canveral while you sleep) versus a fun fast car that can't.
As long as it still has a steering wheel and pedals, nothing is lost in the available driving experience.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

That's an excellent observation.

Let me add that while Elon is an incorrigible optimist to a fault, even if I correct for that baseline optimism, Elon seems uncharacteristically optimistic about April 22 to have scheduled an FSD price increase so shortly after it. Weird.

So I have trouble staying off the hype train:

... but maybe we are setting ourselves up for a big disappointment again:

One thing is sure, never a dull moment with Tesla!

Sorry, but that cat meme cracks me up every time. Look at his back toes in mid-air. That's an "OH SH**!" moment if there ever was one. lol!

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

I remember joking about Lyft being the new target. But in case of Tesla the damage seems was from Trowprice selling off near 10% of total Tesla shares. Seems that is done now. So hopefully some recovery.

That being said, $TSLA short interest is going up as the SP lowers, which is the typical dumb-retail-short approach.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Optimistic, pessimistic ... just let the car drive itself with the investors onboard. Make sure they encounter some red lights, a pedestrian, bicycles crossing, some encounters where the car responds in a safe way. It may stop and pause (not on a highway of course), but it should resume safely and reach it's destination and on top of that, park itself on a parking spot.
Nothing more, nothing less.

When that happens on 22nd April, we'll have investors screaming ''BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!" and every news article will be saying how Elon brought the FSD future into the present. And the SP will have a new valuation.

I'm holding and not trying to worry or panic that the autonomy day will be a model Y reveal presentation 2.0... and this was merely a ''massaging the investors day" because q1 was disappointing or demand has softened a bit in the shorttime

...and what if it is not what you describe? You are placing yourself in a corner with only one way out. Your assumptions of what this event will be places Tesla in an awkward position since you are of such an all or nothing opinion. You set yourself up for disappointment and through you, place Tesla in the negative in the eyes of people that read your comments. More FUD fodder.

Dan

 

[shlokavica22]

As to cars, sure don't use them as an investment (buy TSLA instead), but if the price of the car goes up after you buy it, then resale can be on par or better than your inital purchase price. If the car earns you more than the monthly payment (or depreciation) , even better.

That's if you consider the car as pure investment. However if you need to buy the car either way, there is clearly a night and day difference (eventually) between Tesla and any other vehicle on the market.
If on 22, Elon & team show clear and definite path for near term Tesla network, then buying a car will be considered as FSD Software with a car attached to it.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wow, some people going to use a load of money this Thursday:

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, some people going to use a load of money this Thursday:

View attachment 397326

Wonder if that big pile of $260 PUTs has been an attractor for the SP...

 

[Tslynk67]

Wonder if that big pile of $260 PUTs has been an attractor for the SP...

Dunno, but the ones at $100 and $50 are hilarious!

Think I'm going to get myself a lottery ticket for next Friday. we would see a pop between the FSD even and the Earnings Call. It's quite a gamble though as next week's calls are quite expensive. Nevertheless, I feel the SP os totally oversold for the moment...

 

[printf42]

Saw a Model 3 as Tesla service ranger for the first time yesterday.

Anyone modeled how many more Rangers they need in 2019, and do they usually put new cars in fleet or only trade-in/returns?