Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cloxxki]

Why does that matter? As long as it still feels like an AWD that's what matters.

Well, it's wasteful to have that rear motor there is clearly using it adds like 10-15% of straight up heat being sent into the atmosphere. I'm not positive it will drive like an AWD in the kinds of driving the EPA cycle is simulating. In low power slippery conditions, I'm sure it will allocate torque as needed.
I like performance, but it seems so wasteful to have those two different kinds of induction motors still in use. Replace with two PMSR motors and get not just the same AWD but torque vectoring. Also, when you are putting more power on a car than anyone should even want to use without a helmet on, on a track, those two (Model 3) motors would totally change the track endurance of the car.
The front one being PMSR now will probably mean it will do a lot of the pulling, also figuratively. And regen will be more efficient, cause less of an overheating problem.

Tesla is halfway there now with the flagships drivetrain. And still stuck in 2016 (or was it 2015?) with the battery.

 

[pnungesser]

Sorry that makes you a weak long....gotta have average share price around 300 to be a long and strong long

Average well above 300! Does that make me a very "long and strong long", or just a stupid long?

 

[Fact Checking]

It only really makes sense to produce 2170 in Japan if Tesla is planning to switch S/X from 18650 to 2170. If this is the case Panasonic will be left with a cylindrical cell factory and staff in Japan with no customers (few competitors using cylindrical cells in their cars because they don't know how to affordably assemble them into packs). Panasonic would likely offer Tesla a good deal on Japan 2170s to keep this factory in production. I'd guess these would be mostly for GF3 though.
Still skeptical of the report though.

Isn't the introduction of the major S/X power train refresh that brings new life into the ~8 GWh/year 18,650 cell supply from Panasonic, on the exact same April 24 date as the purported China agreement with Panasonic, an interesting coincidence though?

If the Q1 drop in S/X sales was in reality Tesla playing negotiations hardball over the GF3 contract with Panasonic, it would explain why Tesla delayed the Raven refresh so long after the oddly abrupt phase-out of the 75D battery pack which killed S/X deliveries in Q1.

But yes, I'd distrust Chinese social media sources too.

 

[nursebee]

I am such an idiot. Deleveraged yesterday in advance of earnings. Yesterday morning, during that low. And now they do the refresh unveil before earnings? UGH. Market is going to jump today. This is an event I really wanted to be in for!

Being right about the motor changes and the lack of battery pack changes are great, but they don't make up for being unleveraged when the changes get unveiled....

You gotta sell to the sleeping point. Leave emotions out of it and stand by your decisions.
leverage can be like the house of the rising sun

 

[Zaxxon]

EV range is going to be like CPU speed was a couple of decades ago--easy to market, but fairly meaningless past a certain point. Tesla wins the range anxiety game and competitors either cede that ground to Tesla or a forced to put in bigger packs which either push up selling price or eat into margin.

Those in the know will find the faster charging speed to be the real win with this announcement.

Agree with you completely in the long run. I don't think 325 miles (for the X) is there yet. I have ~400 mi in my head as the holy grail.

 

[wipster]

I'm speaking of the dual use baby carriers that connect to a semi-permanently attached base. Cause, yeah, you are going to be hauling the kid everywhere you go, and it is easier to do so if they are in a carrier. If you don't have the kid, you don't have the carrier or the need for a car seat enabled vehicle (on that trip).

You know I spent much of my 5 to 10 years in the back of a 1961 Dodge Polara, with no seatbelts, and it was cavernous back there man... I am amazed I survived.

(of course, given the current state of affairs, I do wonder if it's all a dream/nightmare)

 

[T@oo]

Been there, done that... (sorry, OT, but FA's happening today anyway)

View attachment 400132

But why name them both Elios?

 

[scaesare]

Not according to Motortrend:

"The Model S is built on an older architecture, so it can't support the full 250 kW of V3. But after an over-the-air update, the Model S and Model X will be able to juice up at a rate of 200 kW at a V3 Supercharger. Additionally, if you plug into a V2 Supercharger station you'll get 145 kW instead of the current 120 kW."

Hmm, maybe I mis-remembered... thanks for this.

 

[Cloxxki]

EV range is going to be like CPU speed was a couple of decades ago--easy to market, but fairly meaningless past a certain point. Tesla wins the range anxiety game and competitors either cede that ground to Tesla or a forced to put in bigger packs which either push up selling price or eat into margin.

Those in the know will find the faster charging speed to be the real win with this announcement.

Until not so long ago, Tesla was losing the range anxiety game by focusing on low C rated cells and using LOADS of them. Obviously, charging networks will get more dense. In case of Tesla, they need to front all those costs for the SC network. Other brands were on CCS and fast chargers were put up to their disposal at zero "charge". Ioniq showed how a tiny battery with 2.2C charging actually works pretty well. Basic tech, really efficient, short stops, good travel speed. Tesla was stuck as 1.5C for 75S/X and 1.1C for 100S/X.
Model 3 will peak at 3C once V3 is reality.
Seems the old 100 pack for S/X will be pushed to close to 2C. Do we know about the SR one? We don't know whether the chemistry was updated to Model 3's or similar, it well could be and might help both high load performance and environmental impact.
Range for S/X is improved by side lining the unacceptably wasteful big inductance motor, using the PMSR motor from the 2017 Model 3 to do the lion share (EPA cycle) of the load. Only with a heavy right foot, the rear motor will come into play.
Still Tesla is only half way there with S and X (and that's using their 2017 Model 3 tech as a benchmark), serial colling lines in the SR and LR packs probably, but its efficiency is improve under the floor while aerodynamic consumption was always class dominating.

Tesla is making the best EV's. The better car makers can counter by trying harder, or focusing even more on charge speed, where there is easier progress to be made than in outright range.
Don't underestimate, a 200 mile car with 3C charging is much less of a strain on the environment than a 300 mile car with 2C charging. Think about it.

S LR has now reached "needlessly long range". Especially with the improvement in charge speed and efficiency. Others WILL be trying harder. Efficiency saves production cost at the cell count level.

 

[BestRadar]

So what is the consensus after the bell when earnings are reported? I can see the stock going both ways up to $10 depending on how bad the miss is? Thoughts?

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla is halfway there now with the flagships drivetrain. And still stuck in 2016 (or was it 2015?) with the battery

That's wrong according to Jack Rickard, who found that the 18,650 chemistry has been updated too and it has just as high energy density as the 21,700 cells of the Model 3.

18,650 is just a form factor, a "bottle size" dimension, and it would be 100% stupid for Tesla and Panasonic to not use the best, most advanced chemistry is all their cell formats.

21,700 cells have better volume density, which is important for the Model 3 which smaller, but whuch doesn't matter for the 100 kWh battery packs of the S and X.

I.e. S/X updated to 21,700 would likely have a very similar range and power as the current 18,650 based packs.

What a 21,700 refresh on the S/X will allow, sometime later, are 105 kWh, 110 kWh and 115 kWh packs - but those will likely be significantly more expensive than the current 100 kWh packs.

(@KarenRei made similar arguments too in the past.)

 

[winfield100]

Would be interesting to see if solar panels+powerpacks
Tesla on Twitter
Change the profitability equation. That's how all SCs should look like in the future.
Were there any numbers posted on that?

So, ~788 panels ~317w each = ~250,000w or 250kW, panels ~1meter x 1.6meter (if equivalent to hanwha equivalents)(mine)
should make over 417,000kWh/yr (and be a very nice node in a VPP!)(make some FCAS monies on the side)(grid stability 'n such)

(using free from NREL System Advisor Module 2018.11.11)
(modules arranged in 1 row of 52x6 modules and 1 row of 34x14 modules at a 90 degree offset)
(numbers are rough but seem close)(i do have very old eyes tho)

 

[erha]

I think both Q1 and Q2 are going to be terrible. I’m not surprised if we drop more than 10% and stay at that level for the rest of 2019.

I was super-optimistic a couple of months ago. But I didn’t believe there would be a demand problem which I think we have now.

I think more model 3s around and keep improving production to lower cost of the vehicle will solve these problems. Until then I think we might be prepared for rough times.

I’m so leveraged that I’ve several times since New Years been less than a percentage drop from getting margin calls. Every month I’m able to reduce my use of margin and I think I’ve got it under control now, but it’s been a great lesson.

(I hope I’m wrong and that the earnings is a surprise to the upside. Everybody thinks it will be terrible, so it might actually be considered surprisingly good.)

 

[Fact Checking]

A totally redesigned motor system, similarly redesigned suspension and increased charging speed is a “nothing burger”? Pretty much everything involved with moving the actual car was radically changed, and it’s now rated near and real-world past 400 mile range for S and well over 300 for X. Not sure what more you expect them to change.

Also note that all currently made and recent inventory S/X units made in March and later come with the 20x faster FSD computer by default.

So if you want FSD functionality without waiting for the probable rush and delay of overworked Mobile Service technicians upgrading tens of thousands of FSD customers, then HW3 already installed is nice to have as well.

 

[Fact Checking]

I was super-optimistic a couple of months ago. But I didn’t believe there would be a demand problem which I think we have now.

What demand problems do you see? (Serious question.)

 

[scaesare]

Until not so long ago, Tesla was losing the range anxiety game by focusing on low C rated cells and using LOADS of them. Obviously, charging networks will get more dense. In case of Tesla, they need to front all those costs for the SC network. Other brands were on CCS and fast chargers were put up to their disposal at zero "charge". Ioniq showed how a tiny battery with 2.2C charging actually works pretty well.

For a significantly limited subset of driving needs. It's a daily driver.

Basic tech, really efficient, short stops, good travel speed. Tesla was stuck as 1.5C for 75S/X and 1.1C for 100S/X.

Which ignores that range added is a function of C-rate and pack capacity. A Model S 100D charging at 1.5C is adding range 2-1/2 times faster than am Ioniq's 28KWh pack charging at 3C

S LR has now reached "needlessly long range". Especially with the improvement in charge speed and efficiency. Others WILL be trying harder. Efficiency saves production cost at the cell count level.

Unless you need to.. you know... Drive to a destination more than an hour and a half away and not need to stop and charge every hour?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think both Q1 and Q2 are going to be terrible. I’m not surprised if we drop more than 10% and stay at that level for the rest of 2019.

I was super-optimistic a couple of months ago. But I didn’t believe there would be a demand problem which I think we have now.

I think more model 3s around and keep improving production to lower cost of the vehicle will solve these problems. Until then I think we might be prepared for rough times.

I’m so leveraged that I’ve several times since New Years been less than a percentage drop from getting margin calls. Every month I’m able to reduce my use of margin and I think I’ve got it under control now, but it’s been a great lesson.

(I hope I’m wrong and that the earnings is a surprise to the upside. Everybody thinks it will be terrible, so it might actually be considered surprisingly good.)

While it's a fair debate to talk about S/X demand, with the news that has come out over the past 2 weeks about Panasonic and what the actual cell production is on their side, there really isn't a Model 3 demand issue.....at all. They're still production constrained. We know now that they actually want to push people in SR+(with Autopilot now to help margin) because they are able to produced more cars that way.

 

[BestRadar]

What demand problems do you see? (Serious question.)

They are producing more Model 3 then there is demand for them and at the same time they are stating they are producing less units. If you search new Model 3's available for immediate purchase there are tons of them available. There is no longer a backlog on orders.

 

[NakedLong]

Not sure if this is posted already.

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-was-right-cheap-cameras-could-replace-lidar-1834266742

I remember a 2nd year university project I did over 10 years ago where we had to construct a 3d model from a pair of stereo images. It was pretty straight forward - plug some matching points into matrix algebra. I'm sure 3d modelling from images is even more of a solved problem by now. Given Tesla's 3 forward facing cameras and radar, it's one of the easier parts of FSD. I was wondering about how they do depth on side and reverse cameras where there is no radar and camera overlap.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

They are producing more Model 3 then there is demand for them and at the same time they are stating they are producing less units. If you search new Model 3's available for immediate purchase there are tons of them available. There is no longer a backlog on orders.

So, your unstated assumption here is that anybody who want a Model 3 just wants any old Model 3, regardless of color, range, cost, interior, wheels, or even pickup location.

Oh, and the “producing less units” bit is outright false. They produced more units in Q1 than Q4, and have suggested they’ll build more in Q2 than Q1(by shifting to SR+ to allow for lower cell availability$.