Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

There are almost zero instances of gas stations having charging in North America, and there are few indications that this will change.

Here's 50:

Petro-Canada installing 50 fast-charging EV stations across the country — but is there demand?

 

[jerry33]

Ehhhh, doubt it. Final assembly still appears to be the least efficient and most manual part of the line; there are already multiple lines just for Model 3; and doing two models on one line would probably slow things down. Everything ELSE is more likely to be shareable and adjustable between the models.

Agreed, the reason you do multiple cars in one line is because there isn't enough demand to justify two lines. That's just not the case here.

 

[RobStark]

Here's 50:

Petro-Canada installing 50 fast-charging EV stations across the country — but is there demand?

The DC fast chargers will offer the highest levels of charging, also called fast, level 3 or 3+, which can provide up to 200 kilowatts per hour (kWh) — enough to provide an 80 per cent charge to most EVs in less than 30 minutes.

Petro-Canada said the stations will feature two fast chargers and have an additional two spots for waiting. The company said the units are capable of 350 kilowatt charging with future upgrades.

The chargers will provide the two universal standard connectors: CHAdeMO and and Combined Charging System (CCS), also known as COMBO.

 

[bdy0627]

It's hard to reconcile dichotomy of 1. technical expertise I see in Tesla products vs. 2. massive screwup that this quarter is, and implications of incompetent execution. And lack of 'mea culpa'.

For the first time ever, I feel (likely irrational) fear Tesla won't succeed; as I don't know how much to trust Tesla management.

It's time for Elon to let someone else lead.

Aren't we basically seeing the result of Tesla trying to manage a very challenging situation that they created by taking reservations for the model 3 combined with the loss of a huge portion of the tax credit in Q1? No doubt, they would love a do over for Q1 (which would probably require managing Q3/4 2018 differently), but it seems to me this was nearly inevitable, particularly when Tesla went so hardcore after the U.S. market in 2H 2018. The pull forward of demand in Q4 2018 had an absolutely brutal effect for Q1. To smooth the financial effect, Tesla would have been better off with 10,000+ in transit from Q4 rather than trying to take in transit down to an absolute minimum in Q4. All of this has created some unnecessary financial stress and seriously raised uncertainty about the sustainable demand levels. The stock has suffered as a result, and now they are seriously considering a capital raise with the stock near 52 week low? Elon deserves criticism over how he has managed the last couple of quarters. Apparently, he seems to like volatility.

 

[KarenRei]

Agreed, the reason you do multiple cars in one line is because there isn't enough demand to justify two lines. That's just not the case here.

However, the Model S line is old and space-inefficient.

 

[KarenRei]

Aren't we basically seeing the result of Tesla trying to manage a very challenging situation that they created by taking reservations for the model 3 combined with the loss of a huge portion of the tax credit in Q1? No doubt, they would love a do over for Q1 (which would probably require managing Q3/4 2018 differently), but it seems to me this was nearly inevitable, particularly when Tesla went so hardcore after the U.S. market in 2H 2018. The pull forward of demand in Q4 2018 had an absolutely brutal effect for Q1. To smooth the financial effect, Tesla would have been better off with 10,000+ in transit from Q4 rather than trying to take in transit down to an absolute minimum in Q4. All of this has created some unnecessary financial stress and seriously raised uncertainty about the sustainable demand levels. The stock has suffered as a result, and now they are seriously considering a capital raise with the stock near 52 week low? Elon deserves criticism over how he has managed the last couple of quarters. Apparently, he seems to like volatility.

They'd been pointing out since Q3 that Q1 was going to be a tough quarter. It just turned out to be a lot "tougher" than expected :Þ

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Disagree to disagree
Those are Tesla's advantages that nobody has. But in this particular case they still need human to look at, find out what's going on, specify rules to ask the fleet for more data and retrain.

It takes time.

Tesla's ahead of everyone else gives us no assurance they can get there next year.

Didn't Andrej spell this out at the Autonomy Day? An edge case is discovered...human defines it and calls for similar images from the fleet...system learns to identify it...adjustment goes back out to the fleet...no more edge case.

Dan

 

[scaesare]

Slightly perhaps. A base Tesla is a long range car compared to anything else. Yet somehow, other BEVs are sold as well. Seems there is a demand for cars that don't represent needlessly high one-time impact on the environment.

Or, it's what they can afford. Or it's from a manufacturer they prefer. Or it's a form factor they prefer. Or that's all that had been largely available until recently.

My observation is that folks buy the greatest amount of range they can afford.

I get a terrible itch when people commute 10 km in their 100 kWh car pretending to save the world. While getting a huge tax incentive for being wealthy enough to buy such.
If Tesla's mission is to get BEVs to people, then why not offer compelling lower range cars? They look cool, people would enjoy driving them. A 30-40 kWh Tesla would be a fine, fine car for commuting and the odd day trip. Which is exactly the action the majority of premium sedans see.

Then apparently you are ignorant of (or deliberately ignoring) the fact they initially offered 40kWh packs.

The take rate was so incredibly low (something like less than 4% if I recall), that they discontinued them as it didn't' make financial sense to keep offering them.

 

[Remus]

Didn't Andrej spell this out at the Autonomy Day? An edge case is discovered...human defines it and calls for similar images from the fleet...system learns to identify it...adjustment goes back out to the fleet...no more edge case.

Dan

Agree until last phrase, no more edge cases. Really?
This particular edge case probably emerged when they train the NN to treat two objects as one

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Agree until last phrase, no more edge cases. Really?
This particular edge case probably emerged when they train the NN to treat two objects as one

No...no more of THAT being an edge case.

Dan

 

[mickey6]

Didn't Andrej spell this out at the Autonomy Day? An edge case is discovered...human defines it and calls for similar images from the fleet...system learns to identify it...adjustment goes back out to the fleet...no more edge case.

Dan

I have always wondered about this part "adjustment goes back out to the fleet." How does this work exactly? is that through a firmware push which is infrequent and inefficient imo.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I have always wondered about this part "adjustment goes back out to the fleet." How does this work exactly? is that through a firmware push which is infrequent and inefficient imo.

My understanding is that these NN adjustments are ongoing, not through specific sporadic firmware updates. However, I could be completely wrong.

Dan

 

[Vitold]

Ehhhh, doubt it. Final assembly still appears to be the least efficient and most manual part of the line; there are already multiple lines just for Model 3; and doing two models on one line would probably slow things down. Everything ELSE is more likely to be shareable and adjustable between the models.

I expect that the reason for not making Y on model 3 line is because model 3 lines are 1.0 where as Y is new and improved version 2.0. After implementing Y lines next step would be to get 3 lines updated. By that time they should be interchangeable - after all 3 and Y are more alike than S and X.

Having flexibility to build both models on each line increases productivity during stoppage, maintenance and upgrades.

 

[anthonyj]

Wedbush out with a downgrade

Profitability will not 'magically return to the Tesla story,' analyst says in downgrade

Hilarious how Wedbush started pumping the stock at $370 on December 14th, and reiterated their price target like what, 20 times? So that institutions could unload? Now he downgrades at the lows. Cute. Good buy signal

 

[Remus]

Am I right in saying that turned out the reason for S/X sales falling off a cliff is largely production, and we have no evidence that demand fell off as much?

 

[scaesare]

First Palpatine, then Elon.....

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Am I right in saying that turned out the reason for S/X sales falling off a cliff is largely production, and we have no evidence that demand fell off as much?

Other way around, I suspect. Otherwise, there would have been no reason to discount prices so heavily on S/X

 

[Remus]

I have always wondered about this part "adjustment goes back out to the fleet." How does this work exactly? is that through a firmware push which is infrequent and inefficient imo.

Yeah it's in frequent, but why inefficient?

 

[davecolene0606]

th


the wave, dude. the wave.


i expect that means there won't be a big end of quarter delivery rush, which will hurt Tesla.

Haven’t seen anybody comment on Zach sayin all boats going out FULL going forward. The matters.

Fire Away!

 

[Intl Professor]

Yesterday I realized a funny thing: a lot of the best analysts are women.
ARK CEO and mathematician, Andrea James, the Canadian startup CEO (don't remember her name)...
I think they are less clouded in their judgment by their ego/prejudice like some male analysts are. I think they understand Elon's psychology better.

They understand everybody's better. Dammit! That's why they often disagree more with a female boss than men do. Call it our momma complex. Not the queen bee complex—that's male thinking.