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Hating him aside, Adam Jonas question was a good one. Reflect on it. Is there any benefit in tsla staying public?

The small investors that he wants to keep instead saw their net worth cut off by a large chunk. They are held hostage by the wave. And having all media blasting fire everyday degrades the brand.

Honestly, I currently don't see a benefit of staying public.
Obviously this wave strategy isn't helping the sock price, so why not just run the company as efficiently as possible while ignoring Wall Street's quarterly reporting BS? Although Tesla seems to use it as a stick to motivate employees, so maybe it's not all bad.
 
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@neroden I’ve seen you mention Tesla’s current system being level 2 a few time recently. I'm curious: have you read the SAE doc that defines the levels? From my reading, the most recent update would seem to be level 3 when in Navigate on Autopilot. It accomplishes the entire dynamic driving task within its defined domain(permitted freeways), and warns the driver at least a few seconds before falling back to them in all conditions I’ve seen(for rain/sharp curves, it’ll actually fall back to the standard Autopilot lane keeping, which would qualify as level 4 features). There could, I suppose, be faults the system could encounter where it’ll immediately fall back to the driver, but I’m not aware of any being reported in its domain.

Of course, in its current state, I’m not sure it would be a particularly good level 3 system, but it seems to me that it meets the qualifications and there’s no requirement around quality that I can see.

Excellent. Since level 3 is what seems possible in the near future for Tesla, I'm glad to see that they're starting to qualify as level 3. Next step: particularly good level 3. :)
 
OT / Meta on this forum

There's disagrees because that's how things roll here.

Somehow folks here will find a way to spin this earnings as something good.

I guess the other problem is the folks that don't think any of the voting options are appropriate. I certainly don't "like" your original statement but I would "agree". However, I can only "disagree" and "like". So I don't vote at all.

Same goes for much of the other stuff. In a perfect world, I would like to be able to vote "off topic / conversation" and have a view where posts with more than 5 "off topic" votes are ignored.

This would allow me to catch up on the thread if needed, but also (continue) to enjoy the great exchange of information, opinion and analysis that is happening here :) Cheers to all the great contributors here - thanks!
 
Who's exaggerating now? ;-)

It's fascinating to me how charging during the day was defended until very recently but when I point out that a charge during a day of 3+ hours of driving is not the end of the world, suddenly BEV ownership is all about convenience, barely about price or the environment.
That's because all the people who care about the environment have already purchased if they were able to. Everyone else could care less as long as an environmental problem doesn't happen within a couple of years and any that do happen can be rationalized away. Price only happens when gas prices are high. It takes about a week (at most two) for people to forget high gas prices and assume low gas prices will last forever.
 
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Adverse factors for Q2:
* Model Y tooling (they just said that they've ordered a ton of tooling)
* Leasing
* Ending the "end of quarter" delivery cycle.

These are all pretty hefty things that have a negative effect on the balance sheet. Although the latter two are mostly cosmetic.
Would you expect that tooling to create large costs in Q2 already?
After the f-up with the export wave, Q2 is the perfect moment to get away from that cycle. It should be a piece of cake to get rid of export inventory and shift to earlier return to SR+/lease/370mi cars to ultimately be delivered in California.

Losing the profits of 10,000 cars shipped to the wrong continent to make Q2 sales didn't cause more than 10% of the losses, though...
 
Am I right in saying that turned out the reason for S/X sales falling off a cliff is largely production, and we have no evidence that demand fell off as much?

The way they explained it (or what I got from that) is that they stopped the lines during the quarter to retrofit them for the new variants, but also they removed the cheapest variants (for which there was a significant amount of demand) and they discounted severely the high-priced P100Ds, which then resulted in increased demand and an inability of production to meet that demand.

The truth of what happened is probably somewhat close to that.
 
Other way around, I suspect. Otherwise, there would have been no reason to discount prices so heavily on S/X

Layoffs were 18 January. So they had decided at some point before that.

As for prices, S/X first underwent an effective huge price hike (killing off the 75Ds on 9 January, which were the majority of sales), and only then did prices go down - but still ended up well more than the 75D. The only reason S+X margins declined was because of lower production volumes means more depreciation per vehicle.

IMHO, in light of the retooling for Raven, the new suspension, etc, the killing off of the 75Ds looks like a deliberate attempt to get them some line downtime at minimal cost to margins.
 
Slightly perhaps. A base Tesla is a long range car compared to anything else. Yet somehow, other BEVs are sold as well. Seems there is a demand for cars that don't represent needlessly high one-time impact on the environment.
I get a terrible itch when people commute 10 km in their 100 kWh car pretending to save the world. While getting a huge tax incentive for being wealthy enough to buy such.
If Tesla's mission is to get BEVs to people, then why not offer compelling lower range cars? They look cool, people would enjoy driving them. A 30-40 kWh Tesla would be a fine, fine car for commuting and the odd day trip. Which is exactly the action the majority of premium sedans see.
Those who buy a 100kWh car to commute 10km each day are likely the types who lease or buy a new car every 3 years. What this means is they take that initial residual hit, and someone else who can make use of that range will end up purchasing it down the line. Since those people would have bought a new luxury vehicle every 3 years ANYHOW, I'd much rather them put another BEV into the downstream used market instead of another dino burner.
 
That's because all the people who care about the environment have already purchased if they were able to. Everyone else could care less as long as an environmental problem doesn't happen within a couple of years and any that do happen can be rationalized away. Price only happens when gas prices are high. It takes about a week (at most two) for people to forget high gas prices and assume low gas prices will last forever.
Reality is not many CAN buy a greener car. In the premium market there is one brand that makes lots and they don't ship everywhere. Below their price point there are few options and they present more of a price premium that most people would like to donate to charity over 5 years of car ownership. Also, to start buying BEVs just because they are now within your purchase range is still a horrible decision if you've just bought another car 1-2 years ago.
Let's hope there some demand left from people who have yet to buy their first ZEV.
 
Management seems to execute well in certain areas but terrible in others.
Well, I'm not going to disagree on THAT. (Communications... Customer-facing software...)

I just don't think the financials were particularly problematic, not beyond the bad delivery news which we already had.

They didn't get to 10K/week at Fremont -- bad. Panasonic didn't manage to get to its targeted battery production rate so they didn't even get 7K/week at Fremont -- very bad.

Everything else bad in the financials is consequences of that, IMO. (I think the solar drop is seasonal/planned, and the S&X drop is tax credit hangover / planned retooling which would have been irrelevant had Model 3 produced as intended.)
 
True, but winged, horizontal landing vehicles were baked into NASA's design space since the very beginning (think X-plane programs).
the X-plane program was USAF, not NASA. I still have some books about this from the 1950s :) Now perhaps the program was merged later on, but it certainly started out as USAF.
 
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Toilet Boy's latest theory: institutionals only invest in Tesla because Musk's elite network of spies digs up dirt on them to blackmail them with:

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Or, it's what they can afford. Or it's from a manufacturer they prefer. Or it's a form factor they prefer. Or that's all that had been largely available until recently.

My observation is that folks buy the greatest amount of range they can afford.


Then apparently you are ignorant of (or deliberately ignoring) the fact they initially offered 40kWh packs.

The take rate was so incredibly low (something like less than 4% if I recall), that they discontinued them as it didn't' make financial sense to keep offering them.

Absolutely. In other words, Nissan would not have a business case to extend Leafs range if buyers were content with small batteries.

Now, if someone (Tesla?) offered a loaner for long trips on demand then case for longer range would diminish slightly , but right now people need a buffer, definitively.
 
Those who buy a 100kWh car to commute 10km each day are likely the types who lease or buy a new car every 3 years. What this means is they take that initial residual hit, and someone else who can make use of that range will end up purchasing it down the line. Since those people would have bought a new luxury vehicle every 3 years ANYHOW, I'd much rather them put another BEV into the downstream used market instead of another dino burner.
If the car can stay on the road a long time and distance (key to making BEVs work for the environment), it's less of a catastrophe. But that overpaid lease driver could have suffices with 75 kWh or 60 kWh has Tesla still offered those. And surely after 3 years someone would just as happily have bought that car used. Needless pollution remains just that, until the battery overcapacity is utilize better. Say, bring in you 100 kWh car, let Tesla extract 40 kWh and put it into a huge PowerWall for your mansion. Car still drives fine. No need to strain the environment with the "greenification" of your house. Heck, a Tesla battery module is worth good money and those who buy them for home built powerwalls or ICEVtoBEV conversions get great use out of them.
 
Toilet Boy's latest theory: institutionals only invest in Tesla because Musk's elite network of spies digs up dirt on them to blackmail them with:

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The more I read from that weasel, the more I feel certain he is deeply mentally disturbed. As long as he just sticks to typing crap rather than turning to acts of violence, I guess that's something.
 
Am I right in saying that turned out the reason for S/X sales falling off a cliff is largely production, and we have no evidence that demand fell off as much?

I think it is a mix. Obviously the tax credit demand pull forward in US and Holland impacted Q1 demand which made Q1 a good time to retool for a refresh. As part of the retooling they removed the 75kwh option which significantly impacted demand further because now the entry price point was much higher. This also built up anticipation of a refresh which also acted to impact demand as people waited to see if there was a new upgrade coming.
My guess is that S/X retooling took much longer than planned or something else happened to delay the S/X refresh and drove the worse than planned Q1. Whether this was a production ramp hell, supply issues or something else, I do not know. Given the recent Electrek article/leak about a possible move of S/X to 2170, maybe Tesla had initially planned to switch batteries and motors at the same time, but this was made impossible by Panasonic's cell supply ramp issues. Launching the new motors without the new battery pack may then have required some minor last minute redesigns.
 
Layoffs were 18 January. So they had decided at some point before that.

As for prices, S/X first underwent an effective huge price hike (killing off the 75Ds on 9 January, which were the majority of sales), and only then did prices go down - but still ended up well more than the 75D. The only reason S+X margins declined was because of lower production volumes means more depreciation per vehicle.

IMHO, in light of the retooling for Raven, the new suspension, etc, the killing off of the 75Ds looks like a deliberate attempt to get them some line downtime at minimal cost to margins.

On January 30th, Tesla issued guidance of approximately 20,000 S /X deliveries in Q1. (said would come in slightly below Q12018)
 
That's not acknowledging, that's providing an excuse. It's their failure for not putting any contingency in place and for expecting everything to work to plan (this kind of thinking reminds me of someone, wish I could remember who...). And that's assuming the ships were actually late, which we don't know. Truth is, they still suck at Operations, and I was hoping Elon would simply admit that they messed up. I think most of the management knows they did, not sure Elon agrees.

They need to stop being taken by surprise by things like seasonality and delivery times, etc. I think they are making some changes to that, but it's reactive rather than anticipative. Same with the pricing, which I feel has lost the company a lot of demand from people who would rather wait one month for the "next discount".

They were not taken by surprise by seasonality. They knew Q1 would be bad domestically, that is why they were shipping overseas...
How do you provide a contingency for overseas shipment delays?
If your cars are on a ship at sea and not moving as fast as planned, what can you do at that point?
Switching to export at the beginning of the quarter: check
Using the fastest (economical) transport mode available: check
They cannot control the weather (ship were idling waiting for storms to pass, that was tracked on this thread)
They did have a supplier issue, which could have been mitigated (if expected) by increasing inventory costs (also non-optimal).
They also had a problem with the workers at the unload site, and reacted as quickly as they could.