Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

There is a new motor.

I think the new suspension is a bigger deal in terms of production.

 

[MABO]

You can confirm one S order out of your 20K S/X estimate for Q2. Just put in my order for a P100D w/free Ludicrous upgrade to replace my (old) 2015 S.

And one more for a long range X (re)placed today. Our original order needed to be cancelled out. If fell in a black hole on refresh day. During the intervening period, we were told they couldn't provide a production start date (even after the 72 hour period). The estimate we got was a bit weird (end of may/mid-june). Why not end of May/Early June. Anyway, we inquired about the wait because we're curios that way. The answer we got was 'heavy batching of Model 3s right now'. This didn't make a ton of sense to me, but I'm going to track it closely.

I'm sure we'll get it in Q2, cuz my wife was liberal with the upgrade options. If you don't mind sharing later, I'd be curios when you get a firm delivery estimate on your S.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Full video with the Tesla part

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I am still trying to figure out what about the S/X refresh required such long lead times or delays? No new battery or interior, and new tires, or motors should not shut down the line for long.

I’m not sure why you don’t think the new motor(or new suspension) could shut down the line for long. If they were having more problems than expected producing the motor(or the suspension), that would halt the line entirely.

And you didn’t mention suspension, but switching to that also sounds like it could bring unforeseen complications installing it, depending on how dissimilar it is to what was there before.

 

[FreqFlyer]

There is a new motor.

Yeah, I know about the M3 derived motor. But Tesla stated the S/X sales drop off was due to the line shutdown of the line for the changes. Seeing the changes announced it, I still do not see anything that would cause a long time shutdown of the line, especially a product that has high profit margins.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, I know about the M3 derived motor. But Tesla stated the S/X sales drop off was due to the line shutdown of the line for the changes. Seeing the changes announced it, I still do not see anything that would cause a long time shutdown of the line, especially a product that has high profit margins.

I'm not sure how many times that Elon has to point out that mass production is far harder than most people give it credit for :Þ You don't just "change a motor" in a mass production line, as if it's some sort of weekend task.

Also: Tesla did not credit all of the drop to line downtime.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I’m not sure why you don’t think the new motor(or new suspension) could shut down the line for long. If they were having more problems than expected producing the motor(or the suspension), that would halt the line entirely.

And you didn’t mention suspension, but switching to that also sounds like it could bring unforeseen complications installing it, depending on how dissimilar it is to what was there before.

Because those changes in itself should not shut down a line for any length of time. Were there changes in the line processes? I am sure the new suspension is mated to the body the same as the old one. The same can be said for the motor. New bearings, should already be packed and the wheel attached to the suspension assembling to be mated to the car.

The only reason for such a delay to such an important high margin vehicle is OEM parts were not ready. The supply chain was not filled. Maybe thats what Tesla is alluding too when stating the S/X upgrade caused the dropoff in sales.

 

[HG Wells]

Because those changes in itself should not shut down a line for any length of time. Were there changes in the line processes? I am sure the new suspension is mated to the body the same as the old one. The same can be said for the motor. New bearings, should already be packed and the wheel attached to the suspension assembling to be mated to the car.

The only reason for such a delay to such an important high margin vehicle is OEM parts were not ready. The supply chain was not filled. Maybe thats what Tesla is alluding too when stating the S/X upgrade caused the dropoff in sales.

Or they are moving things around to make room to build the line for the model Y.
Thats my bet. We will see!

 

[Mike Smith]

Full video with the Tesla part

The Tesla part starts at 27:00. He's extremely convincing. Elon re-tweeted this an hour ago so a lot of people are going to see it.

Edit: Someone didn't want this video to be seen..

 

[larmor]

I'm only one week in the hospital, there are over 4300 new messages and the stock price has gone to pot. What have you people done? No way I'll read all that. I guess I'll just read the Q1 update letter and see what was so devastating about Q1 results.

Here's a summary:
Tesla improved the range of MS/X.
Revealed details that they now make or source their own CPU and computer board for hardware solution for FSD which is x factors faster than Nvidia
Nvidia is upset at tesla but admits their goal and path are the way to go
Tesla thinks robotaxis are coming soon
Alot of cars on ships didn't get delivered within the Q1 window, but will be delivered soon
The world is beginning to understand that EVs are here to stay
Several new EV startups are pushing through
Several regular auto manufacturers are promising more EVs in x years
Continued construction of shanghai factory
Lidar manufacturers are pissed and decide to collude together and short tesla, and they didn't need the lidar to tell them to do this...

 

[FreqFlyer]

I'm not sure how many times that Elon has to point out that mass production is far harder than most people give it credit for :Þ You don't just "change a motor" in a mass production line, as if it's some sort of weekend task.

Also: Tesla did not credit all of the drop to line downtime.[/QUOTE
.

Yes, production is hard, you are preaching to the choir. I agree wholeheartedly. Go tour Marysville and see how Honda puts together the Accord (even not taking account the ICE motor), its impressive.

Not going to beat a dead horse, IMO, the changes announced to S/X should not be a reason for a long delay in manufacturing. There were more substantial reasons than a line changeover for the S/X dropoff in sales. Was the cutoff to the change done prematurely? Who knows.

 

[ggies07]

Full video with the Tesla part

"The main course is on the table" **** yeah it is! Love this guy.

And now the video is gone! I should have watched the whole thing before posting.....damnit.

 

[MABO]

Because those changes in itself should not shut down a line for any length of time. Were there changes in the line processes? I am sure the new suspension is mated to the body the same as the old one. The same can be said for the motor. New bearings, should already be packed and the wheel attached to the suspension assembling to be mated to the car.

The only reason for such a delay to such an important high margin vehicle is OEM parts were not ready. The supply chain was not filled. Maybe thats what Tesla is alluding too when stating the S/X upgrade caused the dropoff in sales.

Some of the drop-off in S/X sales was due to people like me waiting for FSD and minor refresh. They also seem to be having some difficulties making this running change. According to the folks at the Nevada call center, they purged the line of the old build for the S/X on 4/14. I don't know if this is true, it's just what we were told as we tried to run down the fate of our original Model X order. My wife was concerned we'd get the old motors and miss out on the 325 mile range. So she ran this down with multiple Tesla folks (Nevada and local showroom in Southlake).

As both an anxious future X owner and investor, I hope they get through this quickly. These are high GM (both dollars and %) and I'd rather not see another S/X beatdown like Q1.

 

[EVNow]

I assume whatever 3 inventory is left is all U.S.-spec-ed, so international pipeline is empty.
They need to build new cars to fill that pipeline. Guessing between 10-20k cars if some are left for Q3. Not sure if reducing U.S. inventory to help pay for this is in the cards or not.

Actually at the end of Q1, they had a lot of international inventory that they shipped but could not deliver. So, the 20k includes both domestic (2 weeks worth, so about 5 to 7k) and international. Ofcourse you keep selling inventory and replenishing the inventory - to form the "pipeline".

What I was referring to was - they have more in S&X inventory than they probably want to keep. So, they will reduce that inventory and that money can be used to build 3 inventory. So, on the whole this would be cash neutral.

 

[ZachF]

Full video with the Tesla part

boom, headshot

 

[neroden]

Tesla Looks to Regain Its Luster in Solar Energy by Slashing Prices

"The company plans to announce on Tuesday that it has started selling solar panels and related equipment for up to 38 percent less than the national average price by standardizing systems and requiring customers to order them online. Tesla executives said these changes should put to rest concerns that the company, better known for its luxury electric cars, has neglected its residential solar business."

It's documented that high residential solar prices in the US are entirely due to "customer acquisition", permitting, marketing, etc. So Tesla really should be able to cut the prices and still make a profit, by cutting unnecessary staff time.

 

[kbM3]

Full video with the Tesla part

I loved what he said.

However, when asked about the Audi eTron, I do wish in addition to his great comment about Tesla already owning EV mindshare, he’d asked the interviewer:

“The Bolt didn’t win over the Model 3 just because it was first to market, so how will the $25k more expensive yet, slower and smaller eTron beat the Model Y?”

 

[FreqFlyer]

Or they are moving things around to make room to build the line for the model Y.
Thats my bet. We will see!

That makes sense too. Building the Y at Freemont where its close cousin the 3 is made and its supply chain already setup may make more financial sense then spending big money to physically expand GF1.

 

[Todd Burch]

For those commenting about Q2 production numbers, in the Q1 call Elon did literally say something to the effect of “we can make 5,000 Model 3s a week no problem now.” He made it sound as if 5k is easy.

If no cell constraints are in play, it sounds like they should be able to easily exceed that for Model 3s. We will see.

 

[FreqFlyer]

It's documented that high residential solar prices in the US are entirely due to "customer acquisition", permitting, marketing, etc. So Tesla really should be able to cut the prices and still make a profit, by cutting unnecessary staff time.

If more utilities follow the example set by Green Mountain then Tesla could have a nice source of revenue for their power products.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/30/tesla-powerwall-replace-meter-electric-utility/