Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Just to be clear, I didn't make this. The creator is the person who posted it on reddit, a Mr Troy Nikolic

Got it, thanks for the clarification. He deserves the Emmy. Thanks for sharing it again for us to be reminded how great these crowd sourced videos were.

Dan

 

[uselesslogin]

The Gigafactory cell production -- which was a Q1 bottleneck -- is supposed to get new, faster machines/tooling in *June*, not earlier.

I thought they installed the new machines in Q1 to get to 24Gwh and now they have to fix issues to get to 35Gwh. I mean 60,000 75Kwh packs would be 18Gwh and we know they aren't using 6Gwh for energy. If we assume an average pack size of 65Kwh and the use of 22Gwh of capacity that should be enough for almost 85,000 3s. If they deliver 75,000 of those they only need 15,000 S/X to reach the 90k. Am I missing something here?

 

[TheMrX]

Here's the 10 page thread on TMC on NEMA 14-50 adapters no longer being included

NEMA 14-50 adapter no longer included with vehicles

Oh I see now : my model was order on april 4th, the 14-50 was still included.
I just checked on the website store : you're right, there is now only the 5-15 adapter included. Sorry for calling false statement.

But, last time I checked : wall connector was 550 CAD$, is now 650$ CAD and mobile connector was 450 $ CAD, is now 275 $ CAD.... The 14-50 adapter is still the same price at 44 $ CAD.

So, while true that the 14-50 adapter is now not included, if you want your mobile connector to be your primary home connector, the total cost is 44 $ (CAD).....

So I see Tesla did this to encourage customer to go for the wall connector because of change in the electrical code requiring CGFI breaker on the 14-50 plug, not to try to save a couple $ on every sales.

I really don't see a problem here.

But thanks Brian for pointing this out, I mean, a thread for a ''missing'' 44$ CAD adapter on a 55 00$ CAD car, really?!

 

[loco]

May I ask where my two favorite bulls are? Is their mission finished with Rowe out and Retail holding the bag?

Just kidding. Would be funny if real.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Aren’t they going to be CF positive going forward?
Q1 was tough for multiple reasons in spite of that they were CF break even once u account for inventory in transit and debt repayments.
Q2 onward if deliveries normalize to 90k+ range CF should be significantly positive.
Am I missing something.

What happens if the deliveries in Q2 are well off the 90k guidance, as sales estimates are indicating?

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Aren’t they going to be CF positive going forward?
Q1 was tough for multiple reasons in spite of that they were CF break even once u account for inventory in transit and debt repayments.
Q2 onward if deliveries normalize to 90k+ range CF should be significantly positive.
Am I missing something.

If you account for the in transit inventory to get Q1 to CF break even, you would have to adjust Q2 deliveries downward, otherwise you are double counting.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Big options expiration day and the FUD is BOOMING. LOL

 

[Leo9]

New 52 week low premarket: $224.00

 

[AlexS]

Looks like 215 is coming, wonder if we will reach 180-190 levels before end of quarter.

Does the new Europen regulation mean that car can't save you anymore like this? You have to crash instead?

 

[Reciprocity]

If you look at links below and do some basic math, you'll figure out that MB sells 85% in Europe, China and NA (NAFTA). BMW does 88% in those same countries.
I don't know if you consider 15% or 12% significant (you said market is much bigger?), but in my book what's left qualifies as a long tail, and Tesla is already present in best markets.
This is not surprising; outside of NAFTA, Europe and China, the rest of the world are either small markets, or they buy less cars and cheaper cars, or have other impediments (like Japan), so luxury and near luxury cars are much smaller percentage of overall sales. I'll stop now on this subject...

references:
2018 Global: Mercedes-Benz Worldwide Sales - Car Sales Statistics
2018 Global: BMW, Mini & Rolls Royce Worldwide Sales - Car Sales Statistics

Tesla can't even sell directly in many states in the United States. In Germany they created an EV incentive and measured the model 3s length to exclude cars of that length or longer, protecting all their tiny compliance EVs.

You can't buy a Tesla in Michigan for example and can't help have it serviced min Michigan or Wisconsin. Both are serviced and delivered out of Chicago. They even tried to outlaw servicing Tesla's in Texas, but failed.

Japan and South Korea are two of the bigger markets that Tesla has not cracked. I know in Japan, they like smaller cars and in some cases very small, so hopefully Tesla can do better their with the model 3. Maybe some nationalism in both of those countries. Japan as a government is backing fuel cells so maybe pure EVs are looked down on because people know the government won't support them.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

What happens if the deliveries in Q2 are well off the 90k guidance, as sales estimates are indicating?

Stock takes a hit, Tesla keeps on doing what they need to do to further the mission. Build out factories, get more efficient in manufacturing, make changes that need to be made. In short, business as usual for them. They just keep up the awesomeness and let the stocks fall where they may. The worst thing they could do is to start making decisions to placate the short term "investors".

Dan

 

[Reciprocity]

I think it’s very clear to me that Tesla will not meet Q2 guidance and the stock will slide even more.

In light of this, I think the obvious moves are:
1. Stop with silly overly optimistic timelines. Robotaxis are an example. Complete nonsense that Elon tried to spin this in a manner that was clearly aimed at inflating market cap. Nobody believes robotaxis are actually coming next year, and rightfully so.
2. Market is punishing Tesla hard for missing on execution. Get back to executing.
3. With the stock being $160 off from all time highs, it’s time for a major company to back you financially. Whether that be a 10% stake, buyout, etc.
4. Tesla needs to bring the magic back. People used to be so excited about this company. Now it’s all doom and gloom BS on a daily basis, with the general public thinking Tesla is gonna die.

It’s clear to me that the stock isn’t going up anytime soon with continued delivery misses in Q2, and then who knows what’s gonna happen in Q3/Q4. Having a major company like Apple or Amazon back Tesla would be huge and would kill the shorts.

Anyway, as a long bull it’s been super disappointing to watch.

1. No offense but you have no idea where they are at with fsd today. Anyone who judges it based on hw2/2.5 are making a big mistake. For example, it seems clear to me that Tesla knew the day they signed up with Nvidia that they would replace them, we know this now because the fsd chip was started at the same time as hw2 was being installed in cars. Nothing stops Tesla from developing fsd capabilities for HW3 starting a year or more ago knowing it's capabilities and knowing it's coming. The NN that run only on HW3 could be 10x larger then those on HW2.5 today. Meaning, dedicated resources for stop lights, Street signs, fire trucks, semi trailers and so on. When Elon says feature complete, he means all the requirements for full self driving will be in place and then it's just a matter of working through the corner cases. The other thing they have been working on is a system to identify those corner cases, gather examples and train the network. With billions of miles a month of AP, fsd and shadow mode, it's just a matter of time to get to the 5-9s in terms of reliability. How much time? Time will tell, but every day there are less and less. This process should accelerate because the will be overlap between corner cases which will make them easier to identify.

 

[anthonyj]

Stock takes a hit, Tesla keeps on doing what they need to do to further the mission. Build out factories, get more efficient in manufacturing, make changes that need to be made. In short, business as usual for them. They just keep up the awesomeness and let the stocks fall where they may. The worst thing they could do is to start making decisions to placate the short term "investors".

Dan

When Elon can’t be trusted with guidance and Tesla posts a $700m loss when we were assured a profit or close to breakeven, that hurts the long term investors

When Elon tweets enhanced summon coming in 6 weeks in November, then in 1 week in April, and it still isn’t here, that hurts long term investors. Especially when he shifts attention to FSD, which he says will be complete by end of year and with regulation approval next year.

 

[Reciprocity]

Maxwell had already been working with a partner and had akready demonstrated a 20% boost over current cells. Your 1-2 year period may have started a while ago.

I do think the Maxwell tech is not needed for the Semi and Roaster, but it wouldn't hurt.


Tesla would not set rates to make money, the point is to pull costs in house on repairs and lower total cost of ownership. It may also be a necessity in the Tesla Network and higher value FSD space (real cost vs future revenue value) .

I disagree, I think Maxwell is already in the semi. Just do the math on wh/kg required and cycle rates required. Either they are using NMC cells which are lower density or they found a way to get 2500+ cycles from higher density NCA cells. The mystery of the they can get 500mi x 2000 cycles (1 million miles) from 1MWh of cells can be solved using Maxwell enabled cells. Zero Cobalt is another thing that might help the costs of building such a large pack and Maxwell would help that, thigh Jeff Dahn already published research that shows NCA could be Cobalt free and not see a big increase in degradation, though Maxwell tech would offset any loses.

As far as Roadster goes, if it's 2 100kwh packs stacked it should have 700+mi range if it uses newly updated model S tech. Maybe it's 2 80KWh packs stacked. Either way, Maxwell would help it be lighter and require less cooling for the battery, or maintain higher output for longer.

 

[bhtooefr]

Does the new Europen regulation mean that car can't save you anymore like this? You have to crash instead?

Looks like, if the required lateral acceleration exceeds 3 m/s^2, yes. You have to crash instead, if you can't brake.

...of course, I suspect Tesla would log the event, and be able to prove that the crash was avoidable with more steering angle, and use that to lobby regulators. So, a crash that wasn't avoided due to this regulation's impact would likely be a good thing... long term. Short term, OTOH...

 

[bdy0627]

I honestly don’t understand, how it changed from “profitable every quarter from now on “ to “only ten months time to stop bleeding” in few months.

Can someone explain?

Elon was being very optimistic with that previous statement (as well as the one where Q1 was supposed to be touch and go between a slight profit/slight loss) and now he is being melodramatic in the other direction. It's just his style.

 

[elasalle]

For M3 waiting room
SR/SR+ Waiting Room
BC topped it's EV credits to 10M. Follow up post says burn rate is like 400K/day, i.e 90 cars/day in BC.

Anyone was data as to what percent of EVs in Canada are M3's?
+ with the EV incentives, what numbers could Canada support for this quarter?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

When Elon can’t be trusted with guidance and Tesla posts a $700m loss when we were assured a profit or close to breakeven, that hurts the long term investors

When Elon tweets enhanced summon coming in 6 weeks in November, then in 1 week in April, and it still isn’t here, that hurts long term investors. Especially when he shifts attention to FSD, which he says will be complete by end of year and with regulation approval next year.

If Tesla starts gearing their decisions towards placating Wall Street they will simply start spinning their wheels with respect to progress which will ultimately slow the achievement of the "numbers" Wall Street claims to be needing in order to gain their favor and improve the stock price. It's a catch 22. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

If you're not into this stock for the next couple of years at least then you probably shouldn't own the stock. It's going to be a roller coaster. We all know that.

Dan

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Do we have rankings if "deaths by car model per mile"? Have to think M3 is near the top.

 

[saniflash]

Do we have rankings if "deaths by car model per mile"? Have to think M3 is near the top.

sorted ascending or descending?