Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cloxxki]

What's with the talk about losing sleep? If Tesla goes to zero I'll be out about 170k. If it eventually stabilizes back at 290, I'll break even. If it goes to 500 I'll make 130k. If it goes to 1000 I'll make 430k. If it goes sky high one day to 4000 I'm looking at over 2 million profit.

Worst case my retirement is delayed by a couple years. Best case, I retire 10 years early and help support a company on the vanguard of slowing down climate change.

Why not diversify and play the mad mad volatility like the big boys? I lost all but ging so hard in on one asset. It's a loser's bet.

 

[Singuy]

Yes, the media distorts it, but was I the only one cringing as I read the actual email? I immediately knew in my gut that it was not going to go over well with the media/market. I actually never even read any headlines about the email, just Electrek's excerpt and then the email itself. It was obvious to me the SP would be taking a dive as a result of the wording of the email.

demoing FSD to just the analysts was a mistake. One goes off and calls it sci-fi.

It would have been better if it demoed it to general public.
I think they can and should

It will be demoed to the general public..in the form of flipping on a switch. Then people can make as many pornhub videos as they desire

 

[acoste]

I hope you're right, because all of us that ordered a new S P100DL 3+ weeks ago are still waiting for VINS. There has been one Long Range delivered and that's all that I can find.

Tesla can't sell the new S and X right now due to government regulators not yet approving them, as a result deliveries are delayed.

Search for "Tesla Not Allowed to Sell the New Model S & X Cars" on Youtube.

 

[Nocturnal]

Why not diversify and play the mad mad volatility like the big boys? I lost all but ging so hard in on one asset. It's a loser's bet.

I am diversified overall. TSLA is my exception, for good or for ill.

best in class product+brand should be easy to sell. although I maintain the philosophical dislike of advertising is dumb.

I don't know if it's bad or not that Elon doesn't want to advertise. But yes, it is a little worrying that it seems like a moral stance rather than a practical one. ​

 

[Cloxxki]

best in class product+brand should be easy to sell. although I maintain the philosophical dislike of advertising is dumb.

Combined with worst in class reliability and service and compulsive overpromising?
If you see people keying Teslas just because, imagine what would happen if they took out billboards.

 

[iFinance]

Hi folks! Lately, Tesla has been getting destroyed on the market, so I thought I'd address 3 common bearish arguments and why I think the stock is actually a buy. What do you guys think about the stock? Personally, I just added some more cheap shares!

Any feedback is appreciated! Enjoy!

 

[azaz]

Combined with worst in class reliability and service and compulsive overpromising?
If you see people keying Teslas because, imagine what would happen if they took out billboards.

service is a lot better now. reliability on the X and early 3s was terrible but S and current 3s are totally fine.

also your second point is nonsense. I'm not getting in to another argument about does advertising works or not. it's a complete waste of time. if people really think just about every other big time consumer product company (look at the great American companies like Nike and Apple) advertises for no reason and not because it works then we can agree to disagree.

 

[carterm2]

I would like to see the HW3 getting installed in my Tesla. It would signal a significant shift.

 

[Boomer19]

service is a lot better now. reliability on the X and early 3s was terrible but S and current 3s are totally fine.

also your second point is nonsense. I'm not getting in to another argument about wether advertising works or not. it's a complete waste of time. if people really think just about every other big time consumer product company (look at the great American companies like Nike and Apple) advertises for no reason and not because it works then we can agree to disagree.

and to be clear, from my earlier posts about adv, i know it works.

i just don’t think that’s the answer now. they can’t fulfill what they have. loading more orders may only make it worse. the next group of customers aren’t going to put up with the same wait and inefficiencies that the early adopters experience

 

[KSilver2000]

haven't read most of TMC posts lately... was the misinformed notion that -Elon wrote that Tesla had 10 months to live unless employees reduce expenses- not thoroughly debunked here on TMC? If not, tl;dr that is not the reality of Tesla's circumstances, nor is it what Musk wrote.

Does not matter whether the email was misinterpreted. The general public does not follow every posting on TMC. Elon should not have written that email in a language that could be misinterpreted if he knew it was possible to be leaked to the public.

 

[Nocturnal]

Combined with worst in class reliability and service and compulsive overpromising?
If you see people keying Teslas just because, imagine what would happen if they took out billboards.

Overpromising? How is an overpromise on FSD worse than a car like a 3 series that has zero chance at ever getting FSD?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Well i know its lethal to even suggest it but looking at the SP right now...I *think* that was the bottom?

 

[azaz]

and to be clear, from my earlier posts about adv, i know it works.

i just don’t think that’s the answer now. they can’t fulfill what they have. loading more orders may only make it worse. the next group of customers aren’t going to put up with the same wait and inefficiencies that the early adopters experience

oh I didnt fully understand your point then. my bad. I thought the keying was more just from people that hate the brand/evs.

 

[ZachF]

best in class product+brand should be easy to sell. although I maintain the philosophical dislike of advertising is dumb.

I've said earlier in the thread that Elon should state he is considering altering his advertising stance. I bet the FUD would drop off notably if they see advertising dollars in their future.

Tesla should then do a superbowl commercial crowd-funded with swag.

 

[Cloxxki]

I am diversified overall. TSLA is my exception, for good or for ill.

If you were to own 50% VW (or almost any somewhat volatile asset with good fundamentals) and 50% TSLA, pair trading, would have made you up overall due to holding twice the number of shares. Pair trading for the win. Even on the way down is does tremendously well.

Now that advertising is a topic, does this mean the "production limited" paradigm is coming to an end?

 

[kakamora]

243 seemed like a bad deal for Tesla. No more.

There is cash in the bank. An order book full of 3s. About a thousand more new owners every day. Yeah the share price is a drag on demand, thanks to the FUD. But If they deliver 80-85k and make 90k, all will be good. The cashflow will be positive and puts elons cash burn story to bed.

The pivot from fat gross margin to all monies going to AP development was unexpected. We can blame shorts all day, but this change in strategy felt abrupt and some longs didn't want that ride.

Of course this is the right path for the long term. When the cost curve bends little more and Tesla scales up, it will be untouchable.

- Markets are not going to be happy with 80K deliveries. Especially when Zach K just reiterated 90 to 100K this qrt.
- Musk is a visionary and can think 100 steps ahead. but he needs to keep a few cards closer to his chest RE pivot to autonomy.
- The pivot from fat gross margin is concerning. Hopefully the FCA credits go into COGS and therefore increase GM. Optically it should look good to wallstreet.

Even without FCA credits in COGS, I believe GM in Q2 will be at least a few points better than Q1 because
- Price hikes for P & L (no more free L in Europe)
- Deliveries will be significantly higher therefore better production fixed cost absorption
- They were able to effectively reduce production costs for S & X, hopefully that trend continues for 3
- Not sure when Shanghai depreciation starts though

Is my thinking off RE Gross Margins? What am i missing?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Does not matter whether the email was misinterpreted. The general public does not follow every posting on TMC. Elon should not have written that email in a language that could be misinterpreted if he knew it was possible to be leaked to the public.

To be very clear, it was not “misinterpreted”, it was misquoted. He did not write it in a language that could be misinterpreted. When you’re willing to completely change what was said, then no amount of care can prevent such “misinterpretation”.

 

[anthonyj]

Granted, TSLA was insanely overvalued back then, and still (arguably) overvalued in some aspects now, this is funny

 

[azaz]

-
- The pivot from fat gross margin is concerning.

yeah that's what bothers me too. my investment thesis of Tesla becoming a bigger and bigger cash cow (post achieving roughly 5k a week on the Model 3) after each successful model introduction is a bit shaky right now.

 

[Boomer19]

oh I didnt fully understand your point then. my bad. I thought the keying was more just from people that hate the brand/evs.

i don’t know what you mean. i didn’t even think about the keying incidents when i replied to you. only about the advertising. i’ve had several posts with my POV on why advertising now isn’t the answer.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

but i agree with you that it works, if done well. i believe tesla is capable of an extraordinary ad campaign, because the product is compelling and their videos are done well to capture that effect.