That is not what he wrote, as shown on multiple threads last week.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Can you imagine Elon obsessed with state by state regulatory approval and policies for the insurance business? I can't.
He has been meeting with the auto pilot team weekly for at least 3 years how much more can he get involved really?
haven't read most of TMC posts lately... was the misinformed notion that -Elon wrote that Tesla had 10 months to live unless employees reduce expenses- not thoroughly debunked here on TMC? If not, tl;dr that is not the reality of Tesla's circumstances, nor is it what Musk wrote.
From what I understand, the entire auto industry is soft right now. I'll believe Tesla has a demand problem when their growth is lower than the industry as a whole.
Most CEOs would desperately hide or ignore this sort of information. The fact that he doesn't really makes the "Tesla is a Ponzi scheme fraud!" nonsense arguments on even weaker footing. No?
Yes, that was nothing like what he said.
I think Tesla (and us, shareholders) are underestimating how the FUD around the company is scaring potential buyers.
Every one I know (I = a 33+ French guy who doesn't need a car but would otherwise purchased a Model 3 LR with cash) thinks Tesla is doomed and wait for all their neighbors to get one before they can buy one for themselves (this applies to my brothers and sisters, parents, uncles and cousins, friends and colleagues, really!). I did rent a Model S several times just for fun and to let my friends and family get the experience. I did a test drive of the Model 3 with some car enthusiasts friends. They did love it, but the FUD is really too strong for the common Jean. French/European ended up being far more risk averse than I thought.
IMO, Tesla cannot Cross the Chasm with so such a level of FUD in the media – at least in France, but I guess it's the same in other large European countries, and probably in China. The strong sales in the US might be a good testament to how failure-friendly American can be, but becoming a big auto manufacturer requires to convince the "non-beta" users that the company is not a startup anymore.
Musk would have gained a lot with a "serious" public figure for the company like Erich Schmidt was for Larry Page / Sergey Brin (not the products / vision / fun, just the boring, financial stuff).
Every one I know (I = a 33+ French guy who doesn't need a car but would otherwise purchased a Model 3 LR with cash) thinks Tesla is doomed and wait for all their neighbors to get one before they can buy one for themselves (this applies to my brothers and sisters, parents, uncles and cousins, friends and colleagues, really!). I did rent a Model S several times just for fun and to let my friends and family get the experience. I did a test drive of the Model 3 with some car enthusiasts friends. They did love it, but the FUD is really too strong for the common Jean. French/European ended up being far more risk averse than I thought.
IMO, Tesla cannot Cross the Chasm with so such a level of FUD in the media – at least in France, but I guess it's the same in other large European countries, and probably in China. The strong sales in the US might be a good testament to how failure-friendly American can be, but becoming a big auto manufacturer requires to convince the "non-beta" users that the company is not a startup anymore.
Musk would have gained a lot with a "serious" public figure for the company like Erich Schmidt was for Larry Page / Sergey Brin (not the products / vision / fun, just the boring, financial stuff).
Tesla is using a servicing company (State National) to handle the logistics.
Markel Subsidiary State National to Provide Fronting for Tesla's New Insurance Venture
anthonyj
Stonks
Yes. However, the company hasn’t come out to clarify. And that is a red flag to Wall Street. Another red flag is that TSLA acquired a cash burning business, Maxwell, without explanation on how it will stop Maxwell from bleeding cash, and how Tesla will benefit. Wall Street isn’t going to watch Hyperchange videos on YouTube to find out why Tesla MIGHT have bought them, they want to hear from the source.
JusRelax
Active Member
This is exactly why, once the pendulum starts swinging the other way, it is going to swing hard. Can't wait for that pendulum to swing!
I don't know about "execution". It was always an unknown as to what the demand would be for a profitably priced model 3. I don't know what Tesla could have done to make a better $50K EV.
We still don't know model 3 demand. We will find out a lot over the next 18 months.
If Wall Street sees that as a red flag, that's their misread of reality and mispricing of the stock. Setting luck aside, outperforming market indexes is dependent on there being events of such misreads and mispricing.
how much did Maxwell's cash on hand drop last year? quick look at Yahoo Finance, says they went through $8 million last year. Can't be right Anthony, can it? Tesla obviously would have no "bleeding cash" issue with $8 million from Maxwell or $80 million for that matter. Within a couple of years expected to be adding value.
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Am I over optimistic to think that shorts might take this opportunity to close out their positions with a gain (or at least reduced loss) and reduce the shorted percentage going forward?
JusRelax
Active Member
Found it a little funny to see people being concerned about the company because of TSLA.
What has changed since two months ago?
The company itself is doing just fine (except for perceived risk in buying tesla artificially reducing demand, and employee morale.)
We are two months closer to Model Y and gigafactory shanghai. Tesla did a cap raise and the company has a strong cash position.
Just because all these other people are trading the ticker at a lower price, it does in no way reflect the fundamental of the company - it only reflects the perception of the company (or what people would have wanted you to perceive).
I believe you all have your own fair valuation of TSLA when you got in, just reevaluate and stick with the thesis.
For me personally, a future without Tesla (and TSLA) succeeding is likely a doomed future where money would not matter anyways.
What has changed since two months ago?
The company itself is doing just fine (except for perceived risk in buying tesla artificially reducing demand, and employee morale.)
We are two months closer to Model Y and gigafactory shanghai. Tesla did a cap raise and the company has a strong cash position.
Just because all these other people are trading the ticker at a lower price, it does in no way reflect the fundamental of the company - it only reflects the perception of the company (or what people would have wanted you to perceive).
I believe you all have your own fair valuation of TSLA when you got in, just reevaluate and stick with the thesis.
For me personally, a future without Tesla (and TSLA) succeeding is likely a doomed future where money would not matter anyways.
Another day...another margin call,
So as hard as we have been on Elon, rightly so, for his stupidity and lack of cash raising when the stock was in 300s, let us give him some credit for having raised the cash when he did in the 240s. What would the SP be doing today if the drumbeat of going bankrupt in the next six months did actually apply?
So as hard as we have been on Elon, rightly so, for his stupidity and lack of cash raising when the stock was in 300s, let us give him some credit for having raised the cash when he did in the 240s. What would the SP be doing today if the drumbeat of going bankrupt in the next six months did actually apply?
the rats are pouring out of their holes today i see.
everyone still ignoring the elephant in the room...
tesla navigating high wire
we have two curves right now, operating in 3 major markets.
cars, US
early adopters peaked...need time for those vehicles in the wild to attract the “word of mouth” demand to convert early majority.
note this takes even more time with economic headwinds, especially in auto industry (ford cutting, bmw shaky qtr 1st time in decade, jag/land rover losing 4.5bb USD) let alone trade deals and potential iran conflict
storage, US
early adopters not fulfilled, next wave not even in sight.
europe and china - cars
early adopters not fulfilled,
- energy and storage not even in sight
TE is like a couple hundred mm $ a quarter in profit. it could easily be 1bb if they had the batteries. they aren’t even using 2170s, nor 18650s for all storage, that’s how constrained they are
the tightrope is (people arguing for advertising) trying to get battery production to smoothly meet the demand. there’s a timeframe in between each phase of target customers in each market where they must balance on this high wire.
they are doing an ok job of it considering their battery constraint.
once europe and asia early adopters orders are fulfilled the early majority conversions will be the target in US, along with continuous fulfillment of early adopter energy and storage.
they have fresh cash injection to see if they can get back in synch with panasonic at gf1
if they get this first 3 line refreshes operating at peak performance, which we don’t have much insight into at this time (but we know somethings up, obv) then start doing the same to the other 10 existing lines and putting in new ones, then it’s off to races.
start telling me about demand and advertising once they’ve reached 50gwh at gf 1
btw, other mf don’t have batteries either. and the ones they do have, frankly, haven’t compared well to tesla’s. this may change in time, in fact i’m counting on it at some point down the road. no idea how long. we’ll know it when we see it.
btw, there’s a case for the stock trading here for a while until they get that high wire act tuned...
in the meantime it’s about keeping it from bleeding more.
and it is really any surprise to anyone that’s been paying attention that these attacks come at these most opportune times? put the puzzle pieces together. at each critical phase of tesla’s growth we see the same sources outdoing themselves w/ lies and smear
everyone still ignoring the elephant in the room...
tesla navigating high wire
we have two curves right now, operating in 3 major markets.
cars, US
early adopters peaked...need time for those vehicles in the wild to attract the “word of mouth” demand to convert early majority.
note this takes even more time with economic headwinds, especially in auto industry (ford cutting, bmw shaky qtr 1st time in decade, jag/land rover losing 4.5bb USD) let alone trade deals and potential iran conflict
storage, US
early adopters not fulfilled, next wave not even in sight.
europe and china - cars
early adopters not fulfilled,
- energy and storage not even in sight
TE is like a couple hundred mm $ a quarter in profit. it could easily be 1bb if they had the batteries. they aren’t even using 2170s, nor 18650s for all storage, that’s how constrained they are
the tightrope is (people arguing for advertising) trying to get battery production to smoothly meet the demand. there’s a timeframe in between each phase of target customers in each market where they must balance on this high wire.
they are doing an ok job of it considering their battery constraint.
once europe and asia early adopters orders are fulfilled the early majority conversions will be the target in US, along with continuous fulfillment of early adopter energy and storage.
they have fresh cash injection to see if they can get back in synch with panasonic at gf1
if they get this first 3 line refreshes operating at peak performance, which we don’t have much insight into at this time (but we know somethings up, obv) then start doing the same to the other 10 existing lines and putting in new ones, then it’s off to races.
start telling me about demand and advertising once they’ve reached 50gwh at gf 1
btw, other mf don’t have batteries either. and the ones they do have, frankly, haven’t compared well to tesla’s. this may change in time, in fact i’m counting on it at some point down the road. no idea how long. we’ll know it when we see it.
btw, there’s a case for the stock trading here for a while until they get that high wire act tuned...
in the meantime it’s about keeping it from bleeding more.
and it is really any surprise to anyone that’s been paying attention that these attacks come at these most opportune times? put the puzzle pieces together. at each critical phase of tesla’s growth we see the same sources outdoing themselves w/ lies and smear
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