Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Tesla Carriers

12 boats on the list for this Q thus far. My guess looking at the time it takes to get to China and Europe, that these are probably the only boats that will have carried across cars to be delivered this Q. So I wonder what it would mean if boats stop showing up now to theoretically pick up cars that won't be delivered. Back to wave? A cautionary signal?

Yes, it would mean "back to wave". I hope it doesn't happen.

 

[neroden]

Would really love to be wrong about this, but I am in the "I will eat my hat if they are producing cars in September" club right now.

I will be happy if they are producing in the thousands/wk by EOY and think that may be doable.

To be honest, I'm pretty much expecting to see one car out of Shanghai in September. (That's right: one.) From there, I have no idea how long it'll take them to get to real volume production.

 

[EVNow]

Therefore, April 2019:
Tesla: 24k / Model 3: 19,1k / Model S&X: 4,9k

Insideevs estimated 12k in US. EU crowd sourced estimate is around 5k. So, this says ROW (including China) is 7k. Sounds reasonable.

Still difficult to say whether Q2 deliveries would be 70k or 80k or 90k.

 

[kbM3]

Yes, it would mean "back to wave". I hope it doesn't happen.

I was stunned when they guided 90-100k deliveries in q2 PLUS at least partially undoing the wave.

I can’t imagine the pop if they achieve it with good gross margins.

 

[mongo]

To be honest, I'm pretty much expecting to see one car out of Shanghai in September. (That's right: one.) From there, I have no idea how long it'll take them to get to real volume production.

If they copy all the working parts from Fremont, then once the line can do one car, it seems like it will quickly be able to do many...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla will continue importing certain parts to China, probably including their self-driving chip (making it at a second fab doesn't make sense to me)

Unless I’m totally off base, isn’t that chip actually made in China currently? Tesla even tried to get an exception to the tariff rules for exactly that reason, as I remember.

EDIT: It appears I was totally off base.

 

[neroden]

I’m in the exact same boat actually, 6 figures loss still but very close to 7. Margin call looming. Now, this is gonna bite me, but Tesla also! Very likely that I’m gonna cancel my MX P100DL order, because of the impact of Elon telegraphing Wall street the 10 months till bankruptcy.

You see, I’m just an average Joe, no way I could afford a $130K car if it wasn’t for the gain from the stock. I have to believe there are more people in the same situation as me.

People should be more careful with margin.

For the first time in my life, I was a little worried about a margin call this week. So I am moving some other securities in from another location, and then I'm safe down to $70/share.

 

[neroden]

Unless I’m totally off base, isn’t that chip actually made in China currently? Tesla even tried to get an exception to the tariff rules for exactly that reason, as I remember.

I think the chip is from the US but the board is made in China?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I was stunned when they guided 90-100k deliveries in q2 PLUS at least partially undoing the wave.

I can’t imagine the pop if they achieve it with good gross margins.

Don't worry, Wall St will find some way to cap the stock increase

 

[RoadsterPlease]

pretty happy with the stock price for today, I guess there will be a premarket dip again tomorrow but maybe a nice green day after that

 

[neroden]

If they copy all the working parts from Fremont, then once the line can do one car, it seems like it will quickly be able to do many...

Well, I sort of expect them to copy all the working parts from Fremont, Page Ave, Sparks, and Lathrop, and then... discover bugs, or people who need more training, or defective machines, or whatever...

 

[neroden]

Almost $8 million worth? Is he getting a divorce?
He’s pretty much disposing of everything he’s acquiring, and it’s not even end of year tax planning season.
Does this guy still hold anything? Doesn’t inspire confidence if a director takes a dump like this.

Brad Buss is quitting as a director, right? Or did I misremember that?

 

[neroden]

How does one get to go to this? Can any shareholder go?

Yes. Bring a copy of your brokerage statement to prove ownership, bring ID, and show up. At most companies you have to RSVP but at Tesla you usually don't even have to do that.

 

[mongo]

Unless I’m totally off base, isn’t that chip actually made in China currently? Tesla even tried to get an exception to the tariff rules for exactly that reason, as I remember.

Chip is Samsung (which has one fab in Austin, TX, three in South Korea, and one or so in China), the assembled module (PCB and such) is likely from China.

Well, I sort of expect them to copy all the working parts from Fremont, Page Ave, Sparks, and Lathrop, and then... discover bugs, or people who need more training, or defective machines, or whatever...

Yah, but those are instantiation issues, not core difficulties. Should be smoother ramp up.

Brad Buss is quitting as a director, right? Or did I misremember that?

You remember correctly.

 

[Tslynk67]

I mean, sure, but at least add something to the conversation? All I’ve seen him/her do recently is say they’re a “garbage company” over and over again.

As I said, there's a lot of stress out there and people need to vent some frustration, at least here he/she can do it amongst friends.

Many people are playing the same broken record over the last weeks, quite a few of them will flip back into optimistic mode once the SP goes up.

Let's be forgiving and kind to each other - there's enough other shlt without piling it on.

 

[Remus]

Unless I’m totally off base, isn’t that chip actually made in China currently? Tesla even tried to get an exception to the tariff rules for exactly that reason, as I remember.

I think it's the board, not the chip

 

[neroden]

I hate myself for reading this forum every day (but its such a guilty pleasure!) because by scrutinizing things so closely we are bound to lose perspective.

At 30,000 feet, its clear to me that TSLA is a total crap shoot until Q1 2020. That is the first quarter that Tesla is likely to be producing 10,000 cars, the original goal, the baseline sustained rate of production before the Model Y. Of course it could be even later than Q1 2020 if there are unanticipated delays in China or continued battery supply problems, but it is not going to be earlier than Q1 2020.

Anyone making short or long bets with a shorter time frame is pure gambling. Until then, a big SP drop is just as irrelevant as a big SP spike.

It seems highly unlikely to met that TSLA is trading at less than $350 in Q1 2020 if there is sufficient demand for those 10,000 cars. I'm long TSLA now because I believe that demand will be there, and I don't consider that gambling, I consider it an educated guess based on my perception of the competition, and the increasing general interest in electric cars, (I also assign real value to the possibility of robotaxis and Tesla Energy, but I'm not counting on the overall market to assign any value to that until it is closer to fruition).

My timeframe is minimum of Q1 2021 because of possible delays; also, with Model Y producing by then, they will *definitely* be at that critical 10,000 cars/week level, both with demand and supply. Amazingly, options for Jan 2021 are actually trading.

The only question for me is how much to invest now, or wait for a lower entry point. I really don't have a good answer for that, since the stock really can do anything at this point, but I'm trying to stay flexible and have some cash invested and some dry powder left for an even lower entry point. But its certainly relevant that the SP is at the very low end of a five year trading range.

But enough flying at 30,000 feet, let's dive back to sea level and speculate how many cars they were able to cram onto each boat this quarter!!

 

[Tslynk67]

Improved motors, bearings, and other parts to extend EPA range by around 10% for the same battery. There is also improved active suspension, developed by the Model 3 track mode team - according to the only two people on TMC that have taken delivery (as far as I can see), it's a significant improvement.

The improvements are on both S and X.

I think the upgrade is also suppose to improve margins on S and X.

And some internal cabling, I think, to boost the peak Supercharging rate to 200kWh

 

[neroden]

These one-off problem quarters surely do pile up ...

There are only so many tax credits to expire, but there are a couple more coming, so expect a "hangover" in Q3 and in Q1 2020 in the US, and I haven't kept track of all the other countries.

 

[neroden]

The rated capacity of those ships is expressed in RT units (based on the 4m length of the 1966 Toyota Corona).

The Model 3 is 4.69m so a nominal ship's capacity of 6,200 is closer to 5,000, and even fewer if the manifest includes the longer Models S and X.

You know, this is super-helpful? I'm going to apply a mindless derating factor of 4/5 to the offical ship capacities. I know it theoretically should be 4/4.69 but I suspect they lose a little space at the ends of each row and due to the locations of tie-downs, so it's probably more like 5 meters per car. If we go with this I bet we can get a good estimate on shipped car numbers.