Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

As much as I am all for more TSLA longs ...this is a really bad idea... you should only be investing in a single stock after every other financial goal in your household is satisfied ... i really hope you are a troll ... i cant stress this enough ... bad idea

 

[printf42]

Did I read it right the Max pain today is at 205?
MM going to just let it slide this time?

 

[TradingInvest]

I actually think the next catalyst may be the release of smart/enhanced summon. If it is faster and more capable than the earlier videos we saw, and can actually navigate through a real parking lot with traffic, demand for the car may skyrocket. Viral videos will be everywhere. Also, people may actually start believing that Tesla may be in the lead for self driving cars.

I hope Tesla takes a cautious approach, requires people to watch the car when they use enhanced summon. Only after a lot of real world data, then remove the "visual contact" requirement.

If stock price is the concern, I think we may need a large investor to publicly announce their buying intent to reverse the course.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Did I read it right the Max pain today is at 205?
MM going to just let it slide this time?

Max pain is only a useful indicator if the stock is already in the vicinity and there aren't stronger forces working on the stock price already.

 

[neroden]

The "low demand" case would be 50k X, 30k S, and 280k 3 demand per year. Totalling 90k per quarter. I think this is ultra pessimistic and implausible, but add 280k Y and cut X down to 30k, it is still permanent profit.

 

[EVNow]

Good work, I hope you'll post it in the Near-term financial thread for future reference.

Yes, will do.

I'd add 10m to Q2 Auto Leasing COGS. Energy Storage and Generation revenue should be higher in Q2/Q3 due to higher seasonal kWh generation and expected higher storage sales. Margins should improve, too. Services remains a black box.

Yes, auto leasing should be higher.

Energy storage & generation should be higher in Q2 vs Q1 - not sure why it went down in '18 from Q1 to Q2. Either way there was a sudden 50M dip in Q1 '19 - not sure whether its the new norm or it was because of cell shortage in Q1 again.

Interest expense is maybe 165m in Q2 and 180m Q3 and Q4 due to the new convertible bonds. Basic share count should be 176-ish in Q2 and 180 by Q4. Diluted share count should be Basic+8m or so for quarters with GAAP profits.

Yes, I had not updated the numbers after the cap raise. Thanks for the pointer.

 

[kelevra]

It's certainly concerning when an institution owning 10% of the shares bails. However, my understanding is that TRP had a change in the growth fund manager that led to selling most of the TSLA shares.

I agree with everything you say. Mr. Market could be hated or loved. I for my part love this irrational behavior as i was able to buy more shares at a lower price. Right now i also have some interest in a rising price as i couldn't resist to buy leaps but this is only a very very small percentage of my portfolio.
Do you still have the source of that growth manager change? Do you think it was him who was mainly responsible for the large Tesla investment? Barron’s Roundtable Member Henry Ellenbogen Is Leaving T. Rowe Price to Launch New Venture

no i don’t sorry

I think the leaked Adam Jonas call may come from this short: Paul Huettner, CFA (@Paul_M_Huettner) | Twitter
There are also other primary materials on his account like EM telling investors that the cash recently raised is supposed to be a backup in case of a recession, automotive demand or macro events and not intended to be used. I will look for more.

Again the question for everybody who may haven't seen it before: Does anyone knows where i can buy the 2022 convertible? Desperately wanting to buy it.

 

[EVNow]

The "low demand" case would be 50k X, 30k S, and 280k 3 demand per year. Totalling 90k per quarter. I think this is ultra pessimistic and implausible, but add 280k Y and cut X down to 30k, it is still permanent profit.

The other thing is if car demand is actually constrained this way, Tesla can ramp up big time on their energy storage products.

 

[EVNow]

It actually looks like many of TRP's funds sold off TSLA, so it appears to have been a company-wide approach.

T. Rowe Price Funds Sold Lots of Tesla Stock in the First Quarter
"In total, 10 funds that held Tesla shares at the end of 2018 no longer did as of March 31, according to the Refinitiv data, while no funds opened new positions in the first quarter."

"The T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund (PRGFX), which held about 2.13 million shares of Tesla at the end of 2018, sold its entire stake. And its Blue Chip Growth Fund’s (TRBCX) holdings were cut from nearly 1.82 million shares to about 330,000. Both funds had added to their holdings in 2018."

But the big change for TRP was in Q4. They went down from 10M to 2M.

 

[neroden]

The other thing is if car demand is actually constrained this way, Tesla can ramp up big time on their energy storage products.

Assuming they can stop being cell constrained! Yes.

 

[bdy0627]

Update on this latest dip:
The low of $186 yesterday is a dip of 27.9% since the modest climb of 11.7% to $258 on 5/6. We are on day 14 of this dip. $186 is down 52.2% from the ATH of $389. If you use an 8% volatility filter then this latest dip of 27.9% is the 3rd worst since 2014. There was a drop of 32.2% in April 2018 and the huge drop in Feb 2016 of 42%.

The great irony is that this current huge drop is happening during a quarter that may actually set a new record for production and deliveries. However, we won't know that for another 5-6 weeks.

 

[Boomer19]

I agree with everything you say. Mr. Market could be hated or loved. I for my part love this irrational behavior as i was able to buy more shares at a lower price. Right now i also have some interest in a rising price as i couldn't resist to buy leaps but this is only a very very small percentage of my portfolio.
Do you still have the source of that growth manager change? Do you think it was him who was mainly responsible for the large Tesla investment? Barron’s Roundtable Member Henry Ellenbogen Is Leaving T. Rowe Price to Launch New Venture



I think the leaked Adam Jonas call may come from this short: Paul Huettner, CFA (@Paul_M_Huettner) | Twitter
There are also other primary materials on his account like EM telling investors that the cash recently raised is supposed to be a backup in case of a recession, automotive demand or macro events and not intended to be used. I will look for more.

Again the question for everybody who may haven't seen it before: Does anyone knows where i can buy the 2022 convertible? Desperately wanting to buy it.

try this thread
Where can I buy Tesla bonds?

 

[AlexS]

Did I read it right the Max pain today is at 205?
MM going to just let it slide this time?

Yeah I thought also it's nice lotto play when it dropped to 195, but volume is probably to high for MMs. so no extra large ice cream for me this weekend

 

[jerry33]

But I really don't understand why Tesla doesn't have someone who can go on CNBC or such and quickly knock down all the nonsense that gets passed around there.

Given CNBC's past performance do you really think that:
A. They would let someone like that on?
B. If they did, would they allow them to speak?
C. Even if they spoke, would they not edit out the parts they didn't like?
Hard as it is to swallow, I think their best course is just to keep on executing and ignore the static. (And maybe buy back shares).

 

[W84M3]

No buyers @ 190 it is then.

Expect another brutal week next week

 

[TradingInvest]

The price action remains stupid. I can't buy more until my merger arb concludes one way or the other (probably not until September).

Looking at Musk's leaked email, it looks like they will be in the vicinity of 90K deliveries this quarter. Order rate is a tad lower than I would like but nothing to worry about gievbn the number of markets which are still awaiting reservation deliveries. GAAP will probably still show a loss, but op cash flow less capex should be positive.. as it will from now on.

Adam Jonas was always an idiot but now he seems to be paid to spread blatant disinformation. Someone at MS wants to run a bear raid to force a bank run to force a restructuring and lots of fees. But they cannot, because Tesla is not a bank.


Worst case scenario is that Model 3 demand is so low that they need model Y to become permanently profitable. They have sufficient cash to get model Y out, so they will do that.

Adam Jonas is not an idiot. I think MS is leading the short attack, probably has a huge Put/short position and keeps attacking with new positions. Remember a few years ago Jonas said, realistically Tesla is the only company (in the field he covers) that can appreciate 10 fold (to $1900). Later he said Tesla's potential addressable market is 14 trillion dollars plus the screen time value when people are traveling in autonomous Tesla cars. He was able to see those in the past. I'm sure he can see today. Tesla has progressed on that path very well. The Model 3 (and Model Y) are much better than I expected. There are no competitors from EV or ICE makers. he knows it too. FSD is a wild card, I would give Tesla 50/50 chance. Regardless, now he sees Tesla will have very limited demand in the next 10 years.

I don't think they care about fees. They care about trading profits, probably 50 times larger than potential fees. If trade war with China intensifies, these bad guys might get their ways.

 

[bdy0627]

No buyers @ 190 it is then.

Expect another brutal week next week

Very low volume now. It should be relatively easy to take out the intraday low.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

Don’t. Buy. On. Margin. All it takes is one day of a market freak out and you’ll get margin called. Buying TSLA won’t help the company or the stock price if you are forced to dump it all because of a margin call.

 

[anthonyj]

Is there something that we don’t know about? It’s insane how this can’t ever catch a bid

 

[bdy0627]

Given the ease with which the stock has continued to be walked down, I don't have a lot of confidence in the $180ish support level. I just don't know that big buyers will suddenly show up at that level vs here. I hope I'm wrong.