Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ggusev]

would still be allowed, but perhaps limited in scope

shorts not necessarily have to be capped, they just need to be an expensive venture. make stock borrowing cost a 10% and you'll get way more thoughful and careful shortsellers.

 

[MP3Mike]

America’s newest stock exchange wants to fix one of capitalism’s fundamental challenges

@dqd88 and here is the money quote:

Short-selling, or betting that a company would lose value, would still be allowed on the LTSE — and investors won’t have a legal limit on their ability to sell shares at any time. But the idea is that founders would at least have a contract (well, not a contract per se, but at least an understanding) that enough of the company is owned by people willing to stick by them through ups and downs.

 

[Alphacrux]

I wish I could. My paper losses are literally making me ill (constant head ache, can't sleep, stomach hurts). If I had sold everything in December, I could have paid off my house with the profits, and still had more money left over in the account than I do now.

I'm sorry to hear that. Many of us are in similar situations.Try to enjoy the holiday weekend, and let's see what Q2 results bring.

 

[ZachShahan]

These idiots can't see the forest through the trees. Also - what is the point of having a guest on the show if you won't even let them speak?

I love Tasha. Interviewed here for a two-part podcast. But watched 10 seconds of this and couldn't go further. I can't stand the nonsense these people push.

It's almost like listening to Trump, or more like Bill Barr.

 

[VValleyEV]

They ought to read their own article. Anyone not totally familiar with Tesla AP, and some who are, will read the CR article to say simply that Tesla’s AP is unsafe and should be avoided. I posted a comment to the article on CR’s website to that effect:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

See subsequent update to separate TMC thread:
Consumer Reports: Latest Autopilot “far less competent than a human”

 

[MarcusMaximus]

My theory is that he had some insight or perhaps influence into the creation of the LTSE. And he has the option to go there in his back pocket. It would be a great fit and such an epic move. Would allow retail investors to stay in while disallowing short sellers. Makes a lot of sense imo

Plausible. My only question would be if that would exclude some friendly institutions(say, ARK). No idea how their rules would work with moving to an exotic exchange like that.

 

[dqd88]

America’s newest stock exchange wants to fix one of capitalism’s fundamental challenges

I see. So it will be allowed, but under the context that investors are "in it for the long term".

For context, here's the full paragraph that you pulled your quote from:

"Investors in LTSE-listed firms are asked to commit to the long term — they could disclose to the company that they are planning to be long-term shareholders, so a founder knows during an IPO and afterward which of their stock owners are more interested in its appreciation. Short-selling, or betting that a company would lose value, would still be allowed on the LTSE — and investors won’t have a legal limit on their ability to sell shares at any time. But the idea is that founders would at least have a contract (well, not a contract per se, but at least an understanding) that enough of the company is owned by people willing to stick by them through ups and downs."

So it sounds like there will be some guidelines where there needs to be a critical mass of long term investors who stick w/ the company. Which would at least make it worse of gamble for short sellers. So perhaps that's the strategy, make it a not very attractive place to make profit from short selling, and naturally not many short sellers will come when there are other markets better suited for shorting.

 

[tander]

I wish I could. My paper losses are literally making me ill (constant head ache, can't sleep, stomach hurts). If I had sold everything in December, I could have paid off my house with the profits, and still had more money left over in the account than I do now.

Not advice, but my Grandpa used to tell me if you lose a night of sleep over an investment you should sell it the next day. Not always the best thing for your returns, but your health is your wealth. Probably a good reminder that Tesla will probably be more volatile than average for many years to come.

I love Tasha. Interviewed here for a two-part podcast. But watched 10 seconds of this and couldn't go further. I can't stand the nonsense these people push.

It's almost like listening to Trump, or more like Bill Barr.

I was impressed with how tactful/graceful she was, would be nice to see all tv pundits like that, although it wouldn't be very entertaining.

 

[ZachShahan]

yeah, almost everyone I talked to at our Texas Earth Day asked about this, but then I whipped out a picture of this on my phone and they were like: "ooooooh" then they were sold! Like others have said, most people still don't know/understand what Tesla does. View attachment 411561

Probably not the same in California, but in Florida, it seems everyone who talks to you about your EV asks how long it takes to charge. I almost always say, "I don't really know. I don't have to think about it. We just plug in when we go to the store, park, or beach and that's all that's needed."

Response is almost always the same — a kind of "Oh, really? That sounds simple."

 

[Doggydogworld]

Latest official NASDAQ short interest figures just dropped: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Nice link. It shows short interest was:

38-39m shares a year ago during production hell
34m in late June when leaked numbers showed 5k/week production
Sub-30m in late October after Q3's surprisingly large profit
Sub-25m bottom in late January on Q4 profit, slow increase from there on light 360-400k full year guidance
38m again by mid-April after 2+ months of Tesla pulling demand levers and badly missing Q1 guidance​

TL;DR - Short interest fell as Tesla ramped Model 3 production and reported profits, grew back as they rapidly pulled demand levers and returned to large losses. Makes sense.

 

[wipster]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I look at historically high short interest as a signal that the stock may be close to bottoming out and that it may be a good time to buy. Does that answer the question?

Only problem is TSLA has almost always had historically high short interest... it's kind of like James Holzhauer, the current (and quite possibly eternal) champ, almost every win is historic.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

My dad sold all of his TSLA stock this week. He holds about 100 stocks, so it was not a big deal for him, but still about $60k worth of TSLA that he probably lost about 30% on. He was not a high conviction investor, mostly influenced by me in deciding to buy the stock a couple of years ago. He lives in Seattle so he sees lots of Teslas all around. The FUD was ultimately too much for him along with the weakness of the stock. He is totally convinced that Tesla is doomed at this point. Too much debt, Elon's unstable and you can't trust him, and of course, demand looks like a problem already. I decided not to try to persuade him to keep his stock at this point. I feel a little guilty about it actually. He feels better just getting rid of a loser in his portfolio. I think he's right to jettison a stock that he has low conviction in. I'm sure he's got a lot of company selling TSLA on this huge drop. We've even seen a number of old timers here decide to sell and move on. It takes serious conviction to hold TSLA through all of this.

My mom tried to sell her stock on Wednesday. I told her that if she didn't need the money, to just hold it and ignore the media. And if she did need the money, I'll give it to her (she's stingy, so there was little risk in my promise).

It's tough trying to sell your conviction, but once sold, you can't back down or they'll lose confidence too.

 

[ZachShahan]

Given CNBC's past performance do you really think that:
A. They would let someone like that on?
B. If they did, would they allow them to speak?
C. Even if they spoke, would they not edit out the parts they didn't like?
Hard as it is to swallow, I think their best course is just to keep on executing and ignore the static. (And maybe buy back shares).

It's good for their business, imho, to have reps of the hottest companies they cover.

Yes, they will be asshats, but a good communicator would find ways to slam the bear thesis time after time. Would be better than current scenario.

 

[jerry33]

Probably not the same in California, but in Florida, it seems everyone who talks to you about your EV asks how long it takes to charge. I almost always say, "I don't really know. I don't have to think about it. We just plug in when we go to the store, park, or beach and that's all that's needed."

Response is almost always the same — a kind of "Oh, really? That sounds simple."

I usually say, How long does it take your iPhone to charge?, I don't know, you don't know, with the Tesla it's the same. Plug it in and it's full in the morning regardless of how far you've driven.

 

[dha]

Only problem is TSLA has almost always had historically high short interest... it's kind of like James Holzhauer, the current (and quite possibly eternal) champ, almost every win is historic.

Short interest is now up over 51% over the past 5 months. That is significant. Keeping an eye on the relative peaks and troughs is useful even if the baseline SI is always high compared to other stocks.

 

[Boomer19]

I see. So it will be allowed, but under the context that investors are "in it for the long term".

For context, here's the full paragraph that you pulled your quote from:

"Investors in LTSE-listed firms are asked to commit to the long term — they could disclose to the company that they are planning to be long-term shareholders, so a founder knows during an IPO and afterward which of their stock owners are more interested in its appreciation. Short-selling, or betting that a company would lose value, would still be allowed on the LTSE — and investors won’t have a legal limit on their ability to sell shares at any time. But the idea is that founders would at least have a contract (well, not a contract per se, but at least an understanding) that enough of the company is owned by people willing to stick by them through ups and downs."

So it sounds like there will be some guidelines where there needs to be a critical mass of long term investors who stick w/ the company. Which would at least make it worse of gamble for short sellers. So perhaps that's the strategy, make it a not very attractive place to make profit from short selling, and naturally not many short sellers will come when there are other markets better suited for shorting.

what do you think happens to liquidity if you list solely on an exchange with such restrictions. this is my main worry

until we see rules and a plan, and an idea of street adoption from ltse i wouldn’t get excited

 

[wipster]

Yahoo: What Wall Street gets wrong about Tesla

Tasha is a champ. Questions free from the usual vitriol too. Nice.

I think I'm in love! I don't know if I concur with Tesla's % of electric vehicles in 2023, I think it may exceed today's % because I don't see the competition being able to build quality BEV's as rapidly, partially because of battery availability but also I don't know if they know how to build good ones yet... I foresee a lot being recalled while Tesla's keep on trucking. But in contrast to CNBC and SA, she and ARK are a breath of fresh air that gets it! That will help me sleep better tonight.

 

[Don TLR]

Yahoo: What Wall Street gets wrong about Tesla

Tasha is a champ. Questions free from the usual vitriol too. Nice.

Nice to see a panel who aren't arguing with her, talking over or down to her like the vultures on CNBC

 

[wipster]

Short interest is now up over 51% over the past 5 months. That is significant. Keeping an eye on the relative peaks and troughs is useful even if the baseline SI is always high compared to other stocks.

Agreed

 

[ZachShahan]

Hmm.. Ross Gerber is taking credit to this?

Ross Gerber on Twitter

I responded and tagged Mase. Recommend others do the same.