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How can people think Tesla will go broke when regulation is forcing great big piles of money in their direction. It's basically being underwritten by governments that want to improve their environment. It really is a great investment.

Exactly. ICE cars are the transportation equivalent of incandescent bulbs. An aging and inefficient technology that needs to be pushed aside for more modern and energy efficient alternatives. Many governments around the world are offering incentives to speed up this transition.
 
Care bear is just a rebranding of the classic concern troll right?
Yes, but specific to stock trading. A care bear is a concern troll who is suspected of holding a bearish position on the stock. (That is, if their concern trolling is successful, they profit.)

Don't be so sure. Nobody saved the Australian auto industry.

VW is seriously going into EVs, so it'll be in a position to make a case for a bailout and get it. Fiat? They've got *nothing*, and I'm not so sure Italy cares whether they go under.
Ironically, the Chrysler side of Fiat Chrysler has more than Fiat does (the electric conversion on the Fiat 500e was, as I understand, done entirely by the former ENVI team at Chrysler), although there is apparently going to be a next-gen 500e done by Fiat in Italy.

However, my suspicion is actually that Chrysler's ICE products will keep FCA afloat for a very long time. The Fiat side may be dead, but there's going to be rednecks and sheiks that want a Hellcat or a Ram for a very long time, and I'm not optimistic about ICE bans being universal in the US, or extant in parts of the Middle East. (All of this means, I don't have the stones to buy FCAU puts.)

warm up the bailout funds...
View attachment 411780
The counter-argument will be that Norway is a distorted market, of course.

Was getting requests to do a race bar chart based on brand and not model. Thanks to everybody who helped promote the original!

Mase Goslin on Twitter
FWIW, on your original chart, I'd group the Prius PHV and Prime together - the Prime is merely the second generation of PHV, and in non-US markets, they didn't even change the name.
 
Anyone look at the insider sales? Is this typical or a sign the insiders have no faith? Musk had the only buys all the reds are sells.
TSLA Insider Trading - Tesla Inc. - Form 4 SEC Filings

One guy (Brad Buss, the former CFO of SolarCity) seems to be offloading all his shares. Jerome usually sells 1000 shares from time to time and has been doing it for ages (probably to cover for some taxes). Not much to see, really.
 
FWIW, on your original chart, I'd group the Prius PHV and Prime together - the Prime is merely the second generation of PHV, and in non-US markets, they didn't even change the name.

Good point, InsideEvs had them separate but noticing there's no overlap in the data. The visualization has been updated. But of course doesn't affect the existing videos that were made from it.

US Plug In EV Sales 2012 - Present
 
Anyone look at the insider sales? Is this typical or a sign the insiders have no faith? Musk had the only buys all the reds are sells.

TSLA Insider Trading - Tesla Inc. - Form 4 SEC Filings

Just pick the best two performing stock on NASDAQ at last close and pretty good performers for the past few months, INTU and WDAY, and it is all red. Not even a single buy.

INTU Insider Trading - INTUIT INC - Form 4 SEC Filings
WDAY Insider Trading - Workday Inc. - Form 4 SEC Filings

So that is typically a sign that your post was not a question.

Nice try though, maybe more subtle next time.
 
Tesla would do fine without these subsidies. That said, it sure is nice when you see 5% of this quarters production being subsidised by the government just down the road, the FCA kindly chipping in a lazy couple of billion over the next few years, London charging daily fines if you don't get an EV.

How can people think Tesla will go broke when regulation is forcing great big piles of money in their direction. It's basically being underwritten by governments that want to improve their environment. It really is a great investment.
This will once again used by short to smear Tesla for living on subsidy. They don't realize that this is the people's will to demand better environment, it can not be stopped.

People will do the right thing after they exhausted all other options, I guess people everywhere are similar. Chinese cities can ban half of ICEs on the road overnight if air quality go south, and the policy is meet with very little complain from the people as no one is willing to breathe the toxic smog.

I expected to see European government follow suit as many cities there are also has smog problem. They will demand more and more strict emission standard that would squeeze the traditional car makers dry
 
That claim is from this S/A article published on Feb 14, 2019:

"The new Chinese Gigafactory will be built in “modules” of approximately 10% each, with the first module accommodating the mentioned 3,000/week production rate. Or put in another way, the Gigafactory 3 will eventually accommodate production of approx. 1.5 million vehicles a year (30,000 a week)"​

The author claims this is a revised goal from Tesla given during the 2018Q4 Earnings Call, but I can find no such statement in transcripts of that event. So as always with Seeking Alpha, YMMV. I'm not familiar with the author. Anyone have experience with the veracity of his other articles?

Cheers!
Yet if you look at the drone footage I do not see space for 10 more such factories.
 
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OT
Gas stations are dangerous. Time to short the oil companies. VIDEO: Lamborghini and SUV go up in flames at NC Walmart gas station
The sign says...
CB64206A-EC3E-4DF7-AABF-8B7469B63F62.jpeg
 
That claim is from this S/A article published on Feb 14, 2019:

"The new Chinese Gigafactory will be built in “modules” of approximately 10% each, with the first module accommodating the mentioned 3,000/week production rate. Or put in another way, the Gigafactory 3 will eventually accommodate production of approx. 1.5 million vehicles a year (30,000 a week)"​

The author claims this is a revised goal from Tesla given during the 2018Q4 Earnings Call, but I can find no such statement in transcripts of that event. So as always with Seeking Alpha, YMMV. I'm not familiar with the author. Anyone have experience with the veracity of his other articles?

Cheers!

Yet if you look at the drone footage I do not see space for 10 more such factories.

The Shanghai Gigafactory:
  • will be built in four phases,
  • the current main building is "phase 1", with an initial production capacity of 3,000 cars/week,
  • each phase is roughly Fremont equivalent capacity, i.e. can scale to about 7,500 cars/week using the existing main factory building,
  • four times ~7,500/week = ~30,000/week, ~1.5m/year.
The discrepancy is between tooling: initial tooling is for 3k/week, while the building can scale up to 7.5k/week.

Source: various statements by Elon and the Shanghai municipal planning documents that were referenced in one of the Chinese sources that were quoted here months ago, which mentioned the 30k/week figure.
 
BEV has a $10k+ fuel tank and a 20% cheaper drive train. The math only works for vehicles with small fuel tanks and very expensive drive trains - e.g. high performance sedans. In fact, the drive train savings can be higher in the high performance niche because they're squeezing those ICEs for every horsepower they can get and they don't build them in super-high volume.

The mainstream market is a different story. Leaf is twice the price of the similar Versa, and less capable. A BEV Camry would cost 40k vs. 25k. The math for SUVs and pickups is even worse as they need large fuel tanks. $50k Model Y lacks the 'SUV look" and has less utility than a 25k RAV4. The Model Y is faster, of course, but that's my whole point. It's stuck in the premium performance niche - there is no path to match the upfront price of mainstream ICEs. Cutting the $10k+ battery to 8k+ doesn't fix this.


I'm not sure I'd call a 300% spread "highly predictable", lol, but I'll definitely check out the thread.

EV's demand growth rate is difficult to predict for the next 5~10 years. It depends on EV's improvement and cost. Tony Seba predicted that by 2025 all new vehicles sold will be electric. That seems too optimistic to me, at least the world EV supply will not be able to produce that many. Based on how the Model 3 progressed, including total cost of ownership, I think by 2025, world EV demand could reach 40% (which include all EV types from all producers). If we get to 40% by 2025, we are likely to achieve 80% a few years after 2025. All these are under assumption that EVs will be better and cheaper.

Sometimes people compare two vehicles strictly from price point of view, they say gasoline vehicle XYZ is cheaper than Model 3. My point is analog phones were much cheaper than smart phones, people switched to smart phones rather quickly. EVs are much better than gasoline cars. Look how much people love their Tesla cars. If the cost gets to a comparable point, EV's demand will go up.

For short term, I think 2019 will likely to be bumpy in the remaining quarters. If trade war escalates, it could affect Tesla negatively.
 
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