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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Sounds like Tesla was approved for sale in Australia yesterday. Anyone have thoughts on initial demand? I’d guess a full ship to meet open orders and then about half of Canada going forward.
There was an Australian guy on TMC forums back in 2013 that was such a Tesla fan he actually moved from Australia to the USA just so he could buy a Model S. I forget his name but he was very active in the Model S forum.
 
Autoline discusses various aspects of the Chinese auto industry, interviewing Michael Dunne, president of Zozo Go. Electric discussed a lot of course, though at one point they say the Chinese are producing more electric cars than anyone else (fail to aggregate GWh production where Tesla is the leader). Transcript excerpt -

Michelle Krebs, Cox Automotive
We also can't leave this discussion without mentioning the other American car company, Tesla, in China... they've set things up in a little different way, does that help them?

Micheal Dunne, Zozo Go
Absolutely, they're the first foreign company to be allowed to own 100% of their operation; they're in Shanghai & Shanghai will want to make sure they're a success; the government will make sure that they've got their plant built on time and they have everything working; and on top of it all, Chinese consumers really do like the Tesla brand and really admire Elon Musk. So you've got a premium market, 2 million units a year, you have the government wanting electrics to succeed, and you've got a very strong American brand, so... they'd be one to bet on in terms of China.

Joe White, Reuters
So how beholden does Tesla become to China, you know, whatever specific entity e.g. the Shanghai government? In the sense that it seems like that Chinese plant and all the infrastructure they're building there is being financed by bank loans from Chinese banks and Chinese entities... I mean how does that work? Seems like they're now beholden to some great degree to what Chinese consumers and government officials would like?

Micheal Dunne, Zozo Go
They're part of the Chinese family for better or for worse... and as friends of mine in China say, think of the Chinese government as the parents, and they say "would you like to have this little piece of candy? OK then you should do these things... and you will have your piece of candy." Now, it's a little bit of an exaggeration, but not too much. The Chinese Communist Party has done an amazing job of harnessing the energies of millions of entrepreneurs and foreign companies to innovate, to invest and to get things done, and so far that formula has worked pretty effectively.

John Mcelroy, host
Michael I'd like to hear your thoughts on what they call China Speed... how things get done so quickly. Joe just mentioned Tesla and the plant that they're putting in Shanghai, they broke ground this year; supposed to be building cars by the end of this year... a physical impossibility to do in the United States or probably the western world. I've talked to other westerners [designers] who work for Chinese companies, and they're astounded at... they'll pen something and BANG it seems like the next afternoon there's a prototype running around. Talk a little bit about that and the challenge that poses, especially for the U.S. auto industry.

Michael Dunne, Zozo Go
Well in China, in my own experience with my own company, and operating in China for a long time, you have an order that comes on down from on high, and once that order is released and understood, everyone goes into action. There's no deliberation, there's no discussion, what are the benefits and costs, environmental impacts - no... it's done. Contrast that here with the United States where there's a debate about... every step of the way. So this gives China probably one of its greatest advantages, it can move every quickly to establish infrastructure, a new plant, charging stations, you name it, they really have a big edge because there's no debate. The decision is made by the Party at the central level or city level, that's it.
 
Hm? Source on this?
InsideEVs Scorecard. And arithmetic.

Jan-Apr is +7.5k vs. 2018, but ex-Tesla is -13k. Volt is now gone, leaving another hole to fill (14k units May-Dec). The new entrants - Jag I-Pace, Audi e-Tron and the Koreans might contribute 10k incremental units the next 8 months. Overall, US ex-Tesla is headed toward 150-160k vs. 170k last year.

Tesla delivered 191.5k in the US last year. They guided 360-400k worldwide for 2019. US is typically half of worldwide, so 180-200k. It's more likely to be less than more, since US was way above 50% last year and we can expect some reversion to the mean.

Adding it up, US EVs will be 330-360k this year, flat to down from 361k in 2018.
 
View attachment 412181 Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Electric Vehicles Mean More Power to You
They will soon account for all the car-sales growth in the world, giving a huge boost to energy efficiency

I retweeted this to Dana Hull ;)
According to this chart, 2018 was a peak in terms of market growth for BEVs, and every year after that will show less growth than 2018 until 2022, which will finally match the 2018 growth rate; not only that, but the PHEVs will also experience growth in demand until at least 2030… hm… I know this South-African guy who will probably disagree.
 
Looks like Raven's going to be a winner once word travels around about how awesome it is:


Some interesting things to note from the vid:

1. Supercharge 70% to 100% in 30 minutes
2. Quarter mile in 10.6 seconds completely stock
3. Adaptive suspension is noticeable
The new owner of the Raven says 345 mile range. Tesla’s website says 370 miles of range.
 
Sounds like Jay Leno (sort of) agrees with Seba. (skip ahead 2 minutes: talks Tesla)
Streamable - free video publishing

There are several scenarios. If EVs continue to improve and reduce cost, I can imagine the scenario most new car demand to be EV by 2025. Seba said "by 2025 all new vehicles sales will be electric." I have a hard time to imagine that. The world is unlikely to reach that production scale by 2025.
 
One guy (Brad Buss, the former CFO of SolarCity) seems to be offloading all his shares. Jerome usually sells 1000 shares from time to time and has been doing it for ages (probably to cover for some taxes). Not much to see, really.

Quarterly tax estimates, home renovation, tuition for the kids, vacation homes....the reasons for insider sales are varied and rarely have any correlation to that specific executives confidence in the company that his life centers around. But that'll never stop the tea leave readers from postulating.
 
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Looks like Tesla may not be able to count on income from the FCA/Tesla EV agreement.

Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers
Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers

Oh, really?
“Renault’s EV program is considered to be more advanced than Fiat Chrysler’s, but neither automaker is considered a leader in electric vehicles.”

Edit: Although, Renault’s average emissions are a lot better than FCA’s - 112 g/km vs 120, and they sell about twice as many cars, so this would reduce the partnership down to about 115, with a goal of ~92.

Edit x 2. These are NEDC numbers which are evidently different than JATO numbers in @Fact Checking ’ s upcoming post.
 
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Reactions: Fact Checking
One guy (Brad Buss, the former CFO of SolarCity) seems to be offloading all his shares. Jerome usually sells 1000 shares from time to time and has been doing it for ages (probably to cover for some taxes). Not much to see, really.
Note that Buss is leaving as a director at the next election. He will not be connected with Tesla any more. He is probably planning some new venture.
 
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Looks like Tesla may not be able to count on income from the FCA/Tesla EV agreement.

Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers
Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers

I doubt it. FCA’s latest financial report says the contracts are “non-cancellable”:

“During the three months ended March 31, 2019, entered into multi-year non-cancellable agreements for purchase of regulatory emissions credits in various jurisdictions with total purchase commitments of €1.8 billion.”

https://www.fcagroup.com/en-US/inve...ts/files/FCA_NV_2019_03_31_Interim_Report.pdf
 
Oh, really?
“Renault’s EV program is considered to be more advanced than Fiat Chrysler’s, but neither automaker is considered a leader in electric vehicles.”

Also I believe Renault has one of the worst CO₂ emissions in the EU:
21.jpg


And their 20016->2017 emissions actually grew. FCA's emissions were only slightly worse:

25.jpg


And their emissions actually dropped in 2017.

So Renault would benefit greatly from being in the FCA-Tesla CO₂ pool.

I'm wondering whether the FCA-Tesla pool is being traded by Fiat as an advantage in their merger talks: FCA has secured Tesla's CO₂ reduction capacity for a couple of years.