Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Icer]

Beyond the psychological expectations of Chinese users。

We forget pertinent fact
These cars Own The Streets
*
One error i think is in not having prominent
badging on the Very Expensive versions.

Add it as an option?
*
I seriously think that is why Mercedes now
has a front logo the size of the grill

 

[sparcs]

So vincent on twitter updated: Vincent on Twitter

Keep in mind: MIC M3 SR+ 328,000 RMB already included VAT, also consumers able to save money on license tax/fee. BMW 3 series & Mercedes C Class are all starting at around 330,000 RMB range in China as well (Yes, they are made in China too).

I bet the Audi equivalent is a similar price.

Note that you save on license tax/fee in China which might be a substantial amount of money. I believe it can sometimes take years to get a license plate on a gas vehicle in some parts of China. EVs in China shortcut that line.

 

[P3D+]

I too am long. Just picked up a bunch at the 52 week low. I believe the upside squeeze will be violent. Definitely poised for a strong move. Good Luck and hang in there Tesla!

 

[JRP3]

I visit this site about once a year now.

That's one time too often.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Beyond the psychological expectations of Chinese users。

They set their expectation too high
Those who claim they will buy other brands will soon find similar brands like BMW or Mercedes cost the same, if not more, and Tesla is much superior.
Remember, Tesla is a premium brand.

 

[paulch]

I don't think it's a right move, By reading Chinsse Tesla M3 forums , i can see people are very disappointed by the price, they are switching to buy other brand, also they are lost the faith for tesla brand.

If the price is too low, then it will push people to wait for 6 months to get the local built Model 3 which will make the delivery number for Q3 and Q4 look bad.

 

[winfield100]

You're forgetting God's gifts to the Republican Party: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, etc.

Intelligent women?!? Who are well educated. How is that bad? Scary perhaps for some.

 

[peopleweb]

They set their expectation too high
Those who claim they will buy other brands will soon find similar brands like BMW or Mercedes cost the same, if not more, and Tesla is much superior.
Remember, Tesla is a premium brand.

This price should not be a lot of people booking Chinese model3 sr plus, the import version of model3 sr plus sales increased significantly.

 

[Icer]

Regarding sales Q2?
SGF SAF on TQ (Shoddy ground force - air force)
has been vewwy vewwy quiet

Only two I have seen recently revealed spots
with No Cars.
Weeks now.
This was routine last Q, almost every day
Cars everywhere. Now? Where are the cars?
A Mystery.

If Q2 goes over 80K?
(now Above baked in general predictions, expectations driven by the vocal Anti-T)

Plus, I agree, feels like a coiled spring, banged down since Dec...


Not an advice.
But i am keepin the powder dry
Dont think we are quite done on the down yet.
Sure seems primed to me.

Fun Times.

 

[EVNow]

Enough Republican Congressmen will support their leader that a veto won't be overridden, even if they're unhappy, and even though this might help nudge the economy toward a recession.

I agree. Nobody wants to be primaried.

Trump has exposed the soft underbelly of American Democracy as no one could have anticipated. Forget Clinton, Trump has defeated Thomas Jefferson.

 

[qunqun]

Post the prices of the top three equivalent luxury cars in China. They are probably a BMW/Mercedes/Audi.

Then we can start a real discussion on Chinese pricing...

Chinese people who likes Tesla because it's unlike other brands(has big price gap between foreign market and Chinese market)
now they learned that tesla is no different than others
I'm just state the feeling of how Chinese people feel , here is the link for the m3 forum if you can read Chinese
【图】Model 3论坛_Model 3车友会_汽车之家
I hope this price would works probably more than most people here, but by what I know so far people are not happy.
I'm supper long on tsla. l have few thousands tsla shares, and keeping adding shares recently. I'm hope and believe tesla will be succeed, but we have to admit that the constant price change and the higher m3 price in china is not good for tesla.

 

[neroden]

I agree. Nobody wants to be primaried.

I wonder how many Republican members of Congress the big business lobby can take out. They've got an awful lot of money, and the tariffs are killing *everyone*, even the oil companies.

 

[qunqun]

377,000 does not include FSD

Check your fact before misleading people!

Yes, but the fsd is free during promotion time.

 

[lascavarian]

IMO, the problem with "autonomy day" is that there were several really good geeky presentations by the autopilot team, followed by Elon making lunatic, unsupportable claims about robotaxis next year, and the team trying not to wince.

I get what you are saying and felt more or less the same. A bit annoyed.

I did however watch it for the 3rd time and slowly and it seems to me the reaction from most of the audience was borderline disrespectful given the accomplishment. It was a magnificent accomplishment in HW.

I mean Pete Bannon seems to be saying that it is the greatest improvement in design performance he has ever been a part of. The audience did not seem to be qualified to understand what they were being presented. They are using a instruction set optimized to only 8 instructions. Did anyone in that room really get what that meant? Maybe or maybe not.

This seems to be the achievement of a new complementary HW/SW customization capable of delivering autonomy. A true game changer seemingly years ahead of others and potentially dwarfing other significant achievements.

EMs claims may seem unsupportable now but if he is right then he had some standing to crow a little... pearls before swine and all. I can’t wait to find out how far they have come to solving vision and achieving autonomy.

And Neroden, I understand and respect your skepticism about autonomous driving but I think that chip may lead the way to some important things.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Model X inventory in the USA has also increased over 100% -- shooting up from 9 to 22.

One of them probably a raven—my canceled order

 

[neroden]

I get what you are saying and felt more or less the same. A bit annoyed.

I did however watch it for the 3rd time and slowly and it seems to me the reaction from most of the audience was borderline disrespectful given the accomplishment. It was a magnificent accomplishment in HW.

I mean Pete Bannon seems to be saying that it is the greatest improvement in design performance he has ever been a part of. The audience did not seem to be qualified to understand what they were being presented. They are using a instruction set optimized to only 8 instructions. Did anyone in that room really get what that meant? Maybe or maybe not.

Means they're all hard-coded, no microcode layer slowing things down. Only 3 bits needed to specify the instruction (though I bet they use 4). It's a really nice chip.

 

[Singer3000]

I assume you mean "with pure printing of money, you don't see how to manage the exchange rate".

This is well understood in exchange rate theory. There are three tools, and the one China uses to manipulate the exchange rate is capital controls. A "convertible yuan/renminbi" is worth more than a "non-convertible yuan/renminbi". The effect of high domestic yuan printing, with controlled exchange rates between the convertible yuan and the dollar, is to increase the difference in value between the domestic yuan and the convertible yuan. This has some weird effects, but they're already happening and have been for years. One of them is to drive investment differentially into China rather than abroad. Another is that people will do whatever they can to get their money converted to foreign currency, which has been going on for years, so they'll buy overseas assets when possible.

Sorry yes typo from writing on a phone. By the way, hope your medical work in recent weeks has progressed ok.

There have been some highly imaginative schemes to circumvent capital controls over recent years. Oldies like diamond smuggling, new ones like Bitcoin, the most fun I heard of was getting overseas stores like London Harrods to instantly give a refund in GBP cash for shopping sprees made on a CNY card, purchase of overseas property paid for in CNY (one large Chinese property group was even chartering planes to Malaysia to facilitate this one)... the list is endless and that's just in the retail sector. The corporate sector has been even more imaginative, copper-as-currency for example.

The popularity of such schemes rises and falls with FX rate expectations. When the impact on FX reserves becomes uncomfortable (US$3tr seems the pain threshold), you tend to see temporary blocks on even normal current account transactions, to buy time to close the new loopholes against capital account controls. Certainly it's been almost impossible for the private sector to capitalise overseas operations at times in recent years. Quite disruptive to every day business but all known knowns for the government.

China is a grand social experiment of whether you can centrally plan a banking sector plus infrastructure spending, versus letting it grow via market forces in the west.

I argue there's significant inefficiencies, mis-pricing and misallocation of resources in western financial sectors - maybe even more than in Chinese banks...
Their managed exchange range is a function of their trade surplus: the trade surplus defines a natural strength boundary for the Remnibi - their currency cannot be kept stronger than that without consequences.

But it can be kept artificially weaker, without bad consequences (other than reduced purchase power of their own citizens), and that's what the Chinese have been doing for decades to prioritize exports over imports and consumption.

I'd guesstimate that the RMB is about ~20% weaker than it would be if it was freely floated like most other currencies. (But maybe more.)

Yes, and I think that's China's main goal: to grow until they become the #1 economic, political and military superpower in the world.

Yes it is indeed a fascinating and mind-bending experiment and you are I think correct on the ultimate goal. Relative allocative inefficiencies between the Western and Chinese systems are one thing. But to bring this back to TSLA, what I'm quite interested to see as China's growth settles down is which will become more effective at pricing externalities back into the market mechanism. I think it's more likely that the Chinese political (rather than economic) system is the thing that will ultimately prove most successful in this regard, good for Tesla's growth prospects in China for sure. There is still quite a stubborn differential between the willingness to apply pollution legislation locally versus nationally but this will filter down eventually.

 

[qunqun]

If the price is too low, then it will push people to wait for 6 months to get the local built Model 3 which will make the delivery number for Q3 and Q4 look bad.

I get it, So I don't understand why tesla announce the price now.

 

[EVNow]

I wonder how many Republican members of Congress the big business lobby can take out. They've got an awful lot of money, and the tariffs are killing *everyone*, even the oil companies.

In Trump country, not one. They tried hard to defeat Trump in the primary and failed. A lot of the congressmen in purple districts lost in 2018.

Its very clear - you speak out against Trump then you go the way of Flake, Alexander et al. Even McCain had to make nice with him for a while to win the primary.

 

[AZRI11]

Well, I’m sure they didn’t pluck this price from the air. Market research would have told them what the demand curve looked like and presumably this is the sweet spot to maximise profit.

I would have preferred a lower price and a bigger order backlog, just to shut up the “no demand” incessant drone.

As a shareholder I suppose I should be pleased that the market will bear this price. Alas, no short squeeze trigger today. Back to waiting patiently mode.

Market research? This is Elon were talking about. He's the head of service, sales and market research. Don't forget his disdain for consultants. I'm only half kidding I hope