Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

I think that is for Europe only.

That ada

Pretty sure that is in fact for Type 2 CCS (mostly Europe, some other places). But it's existence does make a Type 1 CCS for North America happening eventually at least plausible. Many stated over and over that it couldn't be done due to rules set for by the CCS organization, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I'm hopeful we see one eventually, though perceptually a CHAdeMO adapter is more important to have now than a CCS adapter for North America I expect that will change over time.

The thing is Teslas in Europe are Type 2 CCS already. They do require a retrofit, I assume to add communication protocols to support CCS V2 things like plug and pay, ie identify the car, etc.The CCS adapter there is more like a J1772 here.

A CCS adapter here would need to be paired to the car and would require elevtronics to handle the protocol communications, so much more expensive and harder to make.

 

[gene]

Tariff man announced new tariffs on everything coming from Mexico.

 

[Maitri982]

that video makes me want to buy more shares of tsla to support the company

While people here are discussing the price, which I am pleased about as it’s not too low, I think some on the markets may be analyzing that six to ten month timeframe given for first deliveries from GF3.

If you also factor in the delay from Tesla’s optimistic estimates, there is statistically a very high chance that we’ll only see a handful of deliveries to occur by EOY (for PR purposes).
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think the markets will be pleased with this given how TSLA is treated.

Well...definitely not doing anything in volume September at all, but unless I missed it Tesla never said they would. Assuming they get something like a couple 100K orders, then even if they start making 3000wk in late 2019 it will take a lot of time to fulfill 100's of thousands of orders. So that timeline does not imply at all that they won't make their stated goal of producing thousands per week in 2019.

 

[HG Wells]

Mexico responds with 7% tariff on all US goods.
Will increase by 7% on the first of each month.


Edit: /S

 

[mariaaa]

Germany to expand the 4'000 Euro Credit for Electric Vehlcles until 2020.

 

[AcesDealt]

Are you the real Cathie?


View attachment 413961

Could do a mockup of the doom space marine but I'm too lazy.

 

[Highway2Heel]

I’m frustratedly trying to scrape together more coin...buy and hold and be rewarded...

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Well boys, today I joined your ranks. Bought a bunch at $187.55 in after market.

Last time we had a dip this major, it only hung around for 4 days before zooming back up. I don't see any reason for this not to at least have a technical bounce with a 50% retrace.

Nice - and good luck.

I think the difference between now and late 2016 - Mid 2017 when that last happened, is back then the market was a hot-to-trot bull juggernaut. Right now, not so much, and Dear Leader's determination to drop a giant turd on international trade. Of course, the Chinese Tesla is a fantastic ace in the hole!

 

[printf42]

Will China only produce SR or SR+?

I actually didn’t expect them to lower the price of locally made cars, at least not by much.
So I’m suspecting if the locally made M3 carries lower price, they won’t be exactly the same as SR+, so it won’t mess up pricing in other markets.
Maybe it’ll be something in the middle of SR+ and the original SR, and priced around SR level.

Anyways they probably would stop importing SR+ soon, this pulls up the SR+ demand who prefers imported Tesla.

Again I would expect the price to be not much lower, so people would stop speculating locally cars to be much cheaper. Some could give up the waiting and pull the trigger on imported higher trims.

Quoting myself, I think the GF3 M3 pricing makes much sense. It’s roughly the same price as US SRP + VAT. And looks consistent with pricing in other overseas markets.

The price difference between GF3 M3 and imported M3 is exactly the amount of tariff.

This should be able to eliminate unrealistic expectations and help people pull the trigger on imported higher trims.

Chinese social media has a lot of noise, lots of the commenters are not real customers. There are marketing companies doing lots of spamming to make competitors look bad.
Most of the real users learned to ignore those noise, and if you are new to those sites you need to learn to do that too.

 

[ZeApelido]

View attachment 413966

Wow I found the perfect gift for every occasion!

 

[Drax7]

Just checked for new model S deliveries on the forum, deliveries are now finally
Coming through. Three were posted to the following locations San Jose, Seattle and Montreal.

 

[neroden]

We *do not* want to alarm anyone, but Model 3 is now available to order in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Ireland and Macau at Electric Cars, Solar Panels & Clean Energy Storage | Tesla.

You know what to do: Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

Tesla on Twitter

Poor old Australia. Pretty expensive there.

There's some weirdness. HK and Macau only offer SR+. AU and NZ only offer SR+ and Performance. Likewise for the UK and Ireland. What ever happened to LR? It's available in the US. Maybe they aren't making any LR for countries which drive on the left side of the road yet?

 

[lascavarian]

Someone gave you the wrong information on these, so I'm chiming in. Specifically, I'll use the Tesla 2024 convertibles as an example since this is what I bought. I'll also assume Tesla SP is $190 for the calculations. I'm new to corporate convertible bonds, but not totally new to convertible debt.
CUSIP 88160RAG6
Bonds Detail

The bond component of a convertible is like a normal bond, where it pays interest and pays back the face value at maturity. In the case of 88160RAG6, they're trading just below $90 for $100 face value and pay 2% a year. This means you get paid simple interest of $10 for 5 years plus $10 profit from trading below $100, which is $20 / $90 / 5 = 4.4%.

The bonds also have an option (but not required) to convert to Tesla shares at a minimum ratio of 3.22 per $1000 of bonds. The conversion price is therefore ~$310 a share or lower. You would only convert if the current SP is above the conversion price of course to net an immediate profit.

If Telsa SP is $500 in 2024, you'll make (500 - 310) = $190 / share = $59 / bond. Add the $20 from interest and discounted price today for a profit of $79 per bond, or 87% profit after 5 years.

Doing similar math for convertibles and summarizing 5 years out:
If Tesla SP is $10, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $95, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $190, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $310, profit is 22%
If Tesla SP is $500, profit is 87%
If Tesla SP is $1000, profit is 260%
If Tesla SP is $4000, profit is 1294%

Compare this to to buying shares.
If Tesla SP is $10, profit is -95%
If Tesla SP is $95, profit is -50%
If Tesla SP is $190, profit is 0%
If Tesla SP is $310, profit is 63%
If Tesla SP is $4000, profit is 2000%

I look at it this way, but this is solely my opinion.

1. I'm buying Tesla because it may go up 5x or 10x. If it only goes up 10% annually, I might as well invest in bonds or more conservative stocks. The convertibles ensure a profit except in the most unlikely case (bankruptcy AND assets can't cover debt). Even so, I should get a good chunk back in the worst case.

2. Although convertibles with TSLA SP $4000 nets 1/3 less than buying stock outright, the additional security and profit lets me invest more than double what I would with stocks. In the big win scenario, I'm ahead. And in the lose scenario, I'm ahead.

Some other pluses for convertibles:
1. There's cases where the conversion ratio increases (share price is cheaper) if Tesla has a change of control (bought out) for around $250 and higher. This adds extra profit in the event things don't work out.
2. Conversion is possible anytime if SP stays above ~30% + conversion price for awhile.
3. Bond holders may even come out whole or mostly whole in the event of bankruptcy, assuming Tesla assets are worth a decent amount.
4. Convertible bonds can be sold and bought like stocks, but goes down about half the rate of TSLA stock when it falls.

Disadvantages:
1. The spread for convertibles ranges from 1-4 points, so it's much higher than stocks, but generally better than options.

Wonderful post, thanks so much!

I have never traded in convertible bonds but have been aware of them. Seems I should think seriously about this.

I have to say, that stock sale proceeds moving into Tesla convertible bonds has to add downward pressure on the stock price as I see it. This would be part of the downward drift we are seeing. Many trying to quietly move out/over without dropping the price too abruptly perhaps.

My other question is what is the effect at the end of the day - maturity? Assuming a rise in stock price, does conversion only happen financially or are shares delivered? Where do those shares come from and what is the effect?

Finally, it would seem that driving shares to convertibles through aggressive shorting is likely part (a tool) of a larger strategy played by the house professionals. Possibly part of a reversible strategy depending on the direction of stock price momentum?

 

[neroden]

Come the end of July at the Q3 earnings report Tesla should be able to accurately give guidance not only to Q3 revenue and cash flow, but also the amount of revenue and cash flow which will be generated in a quarter with full 3k GF3 production (most likely Q2, give or take a quarter).

If Tesla gives that kind of specific guidance, and is able to also say that (1) 7k sustainable M3 production has been achieved and (2) demand is strong, then the near term success of Tesla will be clear to all except the irretrievably brainwashed. And it really shouldn’t matter to the near term SP whether GF3 first reaches full production in Q1, Q2 or Q3. Or whether Q2 deliveries are more or less than 90k.

The market looks forward. Guidance is the key. I’m feeling reasonably optimistic that Tesla will be in the best position ever in July to give very substantive and positive guidance.

Tesla is not known for giving accurate guidance even when they have all the information. I wouldn't assume that they will.

I do think the Q2 numbers will speak for themselves.

 

[MP3Mike]

AU and NZ only offer SR+ and Performance. Likewise for the UK and Ireland. What ever happened to LR? It's available in the US. Maybe they aren't making any LR for countries which drive on the left side of the road yet?

The Performance model is a LR car.

 

[neroden]

Australia... the question is really, how often do people think they'll cross the Outback? That's currently impossible in a Tesla.

Oh, several people have crossed the Outback in a Tesla. It's a bit of an adventure, though (the traditional "piles of adapters" and long layovers).

Australia will want the LR non-Performance. Tesla may be seeing how many people can be upsold to the Performance before producing right-hand-drive LRs though...

 

[neroden]

The Performance model is a LR car.

Well, technically, but YOU know what I mean.

 

[HG Wells]

Poor old Australia. Pretty expensive there.

There's some weirdness. HK and Macau only offer SR+. AU and NZ only offer SR+ and Performance. Likewise for the UK and Ireland. What ever happened to LR? It's available in the US. Maybe they aren't making any LR for countries which drive on the left side of the road yet?

Batteries, Batteries, Batteries !

They have reached the point where they can only make more cars by cutting down on LR even more.

Should be cured sometime in june when the jiggs are installed.

 

[anon]

What ever happened to LR? It's available in the US. Maybe they aren't making any LR for countries which drive on the left side of the road yet?

I believe the UK did have an LR option, but not any more.

It may be about trying to reduce the range of options available in RHD markets (which are only a limited fraction of production) to improve margins. Alternatively, perhaps this is a trial of a change that they are considering rolling out in all markets - although they can seemingly produce 7k/week with the current battery cell supply, obviously that requires a large fraction of SR+ cars. If SR+ margin has improved a lot, it may no longer be worth it to Tesla to make standard LR if they can make more money by selling more SR+ cars instead (and also benefit from increased economies of scale as a result, as mentioned by another poster earlier today). On the other hand, the added profit from a performance car most likely makes it worthwhile.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well, technically, but YOU know what I mean.

Yeah, but technically it is just a LR AWD with an extra underline stuck on the back and a bit flipped in the software. (Since they split the actual "performance" bits out as an upgrade again.)

Australia will want the LR non-Performance.

Why? The only difference is that it might cost a little less and that it is slower. Same actual range...