Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

In practice there is a bump/right skew where gaussian distributions fail to predict high IQs, meaning more than 50% of people are actually below average intelligence.

The strict definition of "IQ 100" is the median of all humans - i.e. literally 50% of the population is less smart than the median, regardless of whether it's a symmetric distribution, the other 50% to the right. Half of the time at least, when the number of humans is an even number, and assuming that nobody has exactly an IQ of 100.

 

[M3Rider]

I hope somebody asks elon this at shareholder meeting:
How's your promised ramp up at Tesla Energy and Service going? Do you still remember them?

I think re: TE, considering the cell capacity increase 24->35gwh planned for June, we should ask members here instead - whether they suddenly started getting notices that their powerwall is ready for install.

The real proof of unwinding the wave will be a ship loading later this month. None are scheduled yet, but there's still time.

Yep, and considering 10k in transit in Q1, for any unwinding to happen they need to beat that number, i.e. min 15k in transit at the end of Q2.
Prob. ~4 ships loaded @3k+ and some local inventory.

I live in FL and already feel it. I don't remember the last time I have seen a hurricane that's not at least a cat 3. Back in the days we used to have tropical storms or cat 1s. Now we are just seeing multiple cat 4-5s in a given year and it's freaking me out.

Don't forget a big chunk of FL will be underwater based on future projections. Really makes you wonder how counterintuitive can people be voting for Republicans=climate change deniers.

There's another tax credit expiration in the US at the end of this month. Unfortunately that's enough reason to NOT unwind the wave this month; if they're seeing demand pullforward (and I bet they are) they want to fulfill it this month in the US.

So expect a big burst of pulled-forward US sales in June (and as a result no wave unwinding).

And July production should be sent abroad -- the result will be nearly no deliveries in July, since there will be few US deliveries and the Euro/China deliveries will be on ships.

RHD will save Q3. Remember Elon suggested June/July deliveries? So, these should start shipping close to Q2 end. Given it's an untapped market, it could easily fill the tax credit pull forward hole in U.S.
Also, China orders could pick up given a pretty small price difference between U.S./local version and a shorter wait.

 

[sparcs]

Does today's close mean that the media is going to have retract all those regurgitated articles about SpaceX valuation being more than Tesla?

 

[RoadsterPlease]

Well my portfolio is worth 7k more than yesterday, guess it was a good day

 

[ZachF]

The strict definition of "IQ 100" is the median of all humans - i.e. literally 50% of the population is less smart than the median, regardless of whether it's a symmetric distribution, the other 50% to the right. Half of the time at least, when the number of humans is an even number, and assuming that nobody has exactly an IQ of 100.

Median 100, with a standard deviation of 15

 

[Joe F]

(Note: Yes, I understand this is a "no sh*t Sherlock" post. It just makes me feel good.

Thought your name was Todd...

 

[ZachF]

Very few predicted sub $300, then sub $200. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

A great day for longs....finally. TA wise this may be an indication of a reversal but no tempting fate on my part by declaring it yet.

At the same time though, this stock is so volatile (and at massively oversold levels) that we could be testing Sparta by next week if it decided to take off...

 

[sparcs]

still going in after hours: 194.18 +0.58 (0.30%)

 

[ZachF]

still going in after hours: 194.18 +0.58 (0.30%)

Maybe tomorrow we can get $2XX back

 

[RobStark]

 

[Tslynk67]

how come there are still Volt's? i thought they were Discontinued or some such
View attachment 415405

I guess they've been hanging around on the dealer lots, right?

 

[DRAW]

comparethemarket.com - cost of charging an electric car globally

Interesting chart comparing car charging cost globally, using Tesla Model S as the example. Ireland sadly one of the most expensive, double the cost of the US. Solar power not a great option here either, due to climate.

View attachment 415379

Denmark appears to be the most expensive. There are however multiple energy companies here, that provide charging subscriptions that allows unlimited charging and caps the price at about 100$ per month. This includes both home charging and charging at public charging stations.
We are averaging about 5cents per mile for electricity cost over 60000 miles in a MX.

 

[Pras]

If you guys didn’t realize, AJ knew that inside EV numbers are coming today, so he *updated* his BS fear mongering view on demand to a more real one, so that the guys from the conference call don’t come yelling at him. A true SoB.

 

[StealthP3D]

still going in after hours: 194.18 +0.58 (0.30%)

Man, that was a strong close to regular trading right there at the end. It had all the markings of shorts that had been sitting on the edge of their seats, biting fingernails, hoping for a better cover point and finally pulling the trigger, fearful for what tomorrow morning might bring.

 

[Tslynk67]

I believe there are many handicapped that will feel very empowered with FAD - Fully Assisted driving.

Correct - that YT video a few weeks back showed what's possible already. I sent that to a friend who has a wide with disabilities and he said it was a game-changer.

Here's the vid:

 

[ggies07]

If you guys didn’t realize, AJ knew that inside EV numbers are coming today, so he *updated* his BS fear mongering view on demand to a more real one, so that the guys from the conference call don’t come yelling at him. A true SoB.

I can accept that. I've never grown to dislike like such a professional person as I have with him.

 

[UncaNed]

I know. I had to sell 30% yesterday as I had promised my wife to cut back at 180. Now this ****er AJ is back to pumping. Scoundrels.

Ah typical sell low from me but then the macro and Trump meant that the bottoms could be anywhere. I mean at one point 250 was ridiculous and it breached.

Well for me, I will buy back the sold position, if I see strong reversal today.

Unless this is in your IRA won't you get hit with WASH rules tax liability?

 

[gene]

I'm up today by enough to buy a free Model 3SR+ before incentives! Good day.

 

[ZeApelido]

Only 8 more days like today and we're back to 360

 

[StealthP3D]

I sent that to a friend who has a wide with disabilities and he said it was a game-changer.

I run into an older veteran at the local pub about once a month or so who uses a white cane to get around. He mostly walks from the ferry dock if the weather is conducive or he gets rides from his spouse, friends or public transit. Every time I see him he asks about "Elon's progress with AutoPilot" even though he gets around pretty well on his own. He is always VERY interested in this for obvious reasons. He needs FSD before it will help but other people will find value at lower levels of functionality depending upon their particular disability.