Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

How can you tell they are increasing their holdings? All that graph shows is the number of users holding TSLA. Each one could be holding a single share, or they could be holding 10,000 shares. And you don't know if any are increasing their holdings. All we know is that more users are adding TSLA, in some quantity, to their holdings.

A graph showing total TSLA holdings at Robinhood would be useful...

In theory the number of users holding TSLA and the number of shares held could be in an inverse relationship, in practice this is very, very unlikely.

 

[Singuy]

Don’t play with margin. Buying shares on margin doesn’t even support the stock since you would have to sell in the short term. It’s gambling. Margined TSLA traders are easy pickins for the market makers too

I don't play with margins but people like Rob from Tesla Daily got margin called.

 

[peopleofcolor]

This stock can be $360+ in three weeks. No long term damage done, just transfer of wealth (imo)

I was going to ask your prediction since you were the prophet at least six months ago saying 180 which I thought nuts. Cheers! 360!

 

[powertoold]

I caught the falling knife and bled heavily, but I don't feel bad at all. Tesla has done and will continue to do great things. I just hope the world continues towards a more sustainable trajectory, and things will work out for Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I know there is a lot of AJ hate going on here right now, but I’ve seen some evidence of MS buying the dip heavily along with the 180 Jonas himself has done. From the interaction Elon and AJ had on the last call I think it’s possible this squeeze was conspired in advance.

It is manipulation either way and should be investigated. Unlike the shorts, we don’t run to the SEC only when the SP is going in the opposite direction.

The Eternal Memelord asks: "Why don't we have both?"

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Cadillac mapped 200,000 miles of highway for its semi-autonomous Super Cruise

 

[aagosh]

You really think actual investors buy and sell based on what Jonas says? Really are there people that dumb that are yet smart enough to earn enough money to save some of it and invest it in stocks? I was under the impression the purpose of sell-side analysts was to make weathermen look respectable and to provide a modern-day financial sector version of the court jester or clown.

I can very well vouch for it. My investment manager at UBS advised me to not touch Tesla and cited various reports that shows there is no future. Luckily I went against it ;-)

 

[LN1_Casey]

Cadillac mapped 200,000 miles of highway for its semi-autonomous Super Cruise

Tesla be like,

 

[glen thomson]

I Bought 64 more shares at 190 i now have 166 shares with a average buying price of 268.
I'm 22 years old, and have every dollar to my name invested in tesla now and am holding for at least 10 years.
By 2030 I will be able to get a house or a cardboard box depending how this goes hahaha.
Jokes aside I don't really mind losing it all, as i will finish my computer science degree in three years any way, and you earn what i have spent on Tesla in one year .

 

[Do It]

AJ’s action, if done deliberately, is a criminal act.

I have no doubt that AJ's action was deliberate...

We also have a few in this forum who spread fear by always announcing that the price could go down x dollar further every time share price suffers a big drop. These are shortsighted traders who try to make a few bucks at the expenses of weak longs

 

[LN1_Casey]

I have no doubt that AJ's action was deliberate...

We also have a few in this forum who spread fear by always announcing that the price could go down x dollar further every time share price suffers a big drop. These are shortsighted traders who try to make a few bucks at the expenses of weak longs

There are some who are more obvious than others. That Garland dude, who posted, "I'm scared! Selling." topic? Definite FUDster. Like really, even people who are legitimately scared, don't post like that. It's like a horror movie where there's that one person who says, "Separate the group, it's for the best!" And then goes around killing the others one by one when they do so.

 

[Causalien]

Interesting that the posters have completely changed now that we dropped to the $200s.

 

[Fact Checking]

Speaking of Volkswagen, this is the second or third comment I've seen about them going out of business on this forum (OK I know you said it was unlikely, but it was mentioned). This isn't GM or Chrysler or some other cowboy enterprise, it's a company with half a trillion Euros worth of assets, revenues north of EUR100bn and net income of around EUR12bn making 12 million cars a year. On which planet are they about to go bust?

How about our planet, where Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess said the following:

UPDATE 4-German carmakers have 50:50 chance of facing Detroit's fate, VW says - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters

"From today's point of view the chances are perhaps 50-50 that the German auto industry will still belong among the global elite in 10 years' time," [Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess] said.

“There’s a misperception about the automotive industry.”

“An industry such as ours can crash a lot faster than many would like to believe. Take a look at the automotive industry in Italy or Great Britain: it’s almost non-existent. Our industry once flourished in Detroit, bringing prosperity. The USA and China sense there is an opportunity to challenge our supremacy as regards the car of the future. And they are making headway. I put our chances of retaining our leading position at 50:50.” [Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess]
​

Let's outline a few facts to understand what Herbert Diess really meant there, why the ICE industry is so fragile:

• Firstly, a few corrections: in 2018 Volkswagen AG has sold 10.8m units on €236b in revenue and €13.8b of profits. That's a profit margin of only 5.8% per vehicle, or €1,275 per unit.
• That's razor thin considering the costs of the EV transition that is still largely before them: income per unit only has to shift by ~€1,200 for their gascar business to become structurally unprofitable.
• How quickly gascar sales are going to collapse is a big unknown: for example gascar residual value in Norway has not only collapsed, but the market stopped to function altogether: in certain areas it's not possible to sell gascars above a value of ~$30k anymore, at all. The largest Mercedes dealer in Norway is cutting staff due to sales collapsing over 30% this year, after a 50% drop last year:
• Skyrocketing Tesla Sales Force Mercedes Dealer In Norway To Face A Kodak Moment | CleanTechnica
• And note that while VW is still growing, their biggest cash cows are in trouble: Audi sales dropped over 5% last year, and this year even Wall Street is expecting global ICE automotive contraction of about 9%:
• Wall Street Issues "Peak Car" Warning | CleanTechnica

Everybody agrees that we are just at the very beginning of the EV transition, which I think will later be recognized as the fifth industrial revolution turning ~20% of the world's economy upside down.

If you are a VW shareholder, to discard the Volkswagen CEO's warnings about the fragility of the gascar industry, to suggest that a negative ~6% shift in margins for Volkswagen during the EV transition and a larger than ~10% reduction in gascar demand is inconceivable to the level that Volkswagen going bankrupt and requiring a bail-out by the German state should not even be mentioned, to regard the notion inconceivable to even voice here, is complacency of the highest level...

If Volkswagen survives the EV transition with current shareholders benefiting it is going to be despite their gascar business, which is an albatross around the neck of every gascar maker. I'm not saying this as just a Tesla supporter: for example I see Amazon and Apple with just pure cash and no ICE legacies in a far better position to enter the EV market than any of the current globally leading gascar makers...

To Tesla and other pure EV makers the EV transition is a huge growth opportunity. To ICE incumbents it's a huge existential threat.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Folks, let's not forget which analyst coined the phrase 'air pocket', and who issued multiple notes to investors during 2019H1, timed to cause max movement of TSLA:
(Post by: Freder Reeve, Mar 12, 2019)

I see the posts about macros built to react to news, and news seems tailored to lead macros, and then in Premarket: "Morgan Stanley's Jonas: Tesla stock to drop because price cuts reveal demand 'air pocket'"

'Manipulation': It's not just a Word; Its a Business Practice.​

Jus' sayin' in case anyone remains afraid, unsure, or doubtful about 2019 TSLA.

In other words:

FUD == Manipulation​

 

[stef]

Cadillac mapped 200,000 miles of highway for its semi-autonomous Super Cruise

*Valid until any roadwork cone gets moved 50m

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Spain May 2019

 

[Do It]

I was going to ask your prediction since you were the prophet at least six months ago saying 180 which I thought nuts. Cheers! 360!

I bet AJ predicted something close to180 as well. When the short interest report comes out for May, I bet we will see that a lot of shorts predicted 180 bottom as well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Daily Affirmation #1 | Elon's business philosophy in a nutshell:

• When you follow your dream, others can too
• Don’t make excuses; make progress
• Just because you're struggling doesn't mean you're failing
• Don’t stop when you’re tired; stop when you’re done
• Work hard in silence; then launch your Roadster

Cheers!

 

[Pezpunk]

• Don’t stop when you’re tired; stop when you’re done

overall this is a cool post, but i will quibble with this one point in certain instances -- as a software engineer, i sometimes get "in the zone" and start coding for 15 hours straight. and sometimes when i'm convinced i'm at my most productive, i run into a problem that frustrates me for an inordinate amount of time. then i go to bed, wake up in the morning, and solve the problem in 5 minutes. (or go to bed in the morning, and wake up in the early afternoon, to be honest... but you get the point)

anyway, i guess i'm saying it's ok to stop when you're not done yet, if it's to get some much-needed rest.

 

[dqd88]

Now that the insideevs chart is updated for May I've updated the race bar chart visualizations. Made some visual updates too!

Mase Goslin on Twitter

Wow, you made this? You need more followers on twitter! I followed
It's hard to follow the model 3 on there because it moves so fast. Wish I could watch in slow mo