Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

I've been away for a few weeks - Amazing how much the mood has changed here (and everywhere) on Tesla with no real change to fundamentals.
Now even Lutz is saying Tesla has excellent fit & finish and clear leadership focus (you have to imagine Tesla has started paying whoever he lobbies for), while Chanos is buying calls.
Hope this continues.

 

[Singuy]

I've been away for a few weeks - Amazing how much the mood has changed here (and everywhere) on Tesla with no real change to fundamentals.
Now even Lutz is saying Tesla has excellent fit & finish and clear leadership focus, while Chanos is buying calls.
Hope this continues.

What is truly amazing was how little dry powder talk happened in the 180s. People here celebrated when stock dropped below 300 so the can buy in..but looked for ropes when it dropped below 200. Now people are buying in as SP rises. But when it was at 180, people were waiting to buy in at zero or something.

 

[mongo]

Well trained route ?

All you have to do is to listen to Musk describe what is happening in his commute. Trust me, if Musk had only one intervention per trip he would have said so.

Isn't that what Musk said about his commute at the annual meeting? 1 or 2 disengagements max?

 

[AlexS]

I've been away for a few weeks - Amazing how much the mood has changed here (and everywhere) on Tesla with no real change to fundamentals.
Now even Lutz is saying Tesla has excellent fit & finish and clear leadership focus (you have to imagine Tesla has started paying whoever he lobbies for), while Chanos is buying calls.
Hope this continues.

Seems that some big boys with a lot of power switched their positions

 

[AlexS]

They are 420 strike. He may have bought them cheap to hedge his short position.

no, value of position is 420 000 USD

 

[cricketman]

What is truly amazing was how little dry powder talk happened in the 180s. People here celebrated when stock dropped below 300 so the can buy in..but looked for ropes when it dropped below 200. Now people are buying in as SP rises. But when it was at 180, people were waiting to buy in at zero or something.

I think that even Tesla Bulls are aware that Tesla is a risky investment. If it wasn't risky then people wouldn't spend so much time on this thread trying to reassure themselves!

The share price is either going to the moon or going to crash and take the company with it. When TSLA went beyond $200 I started to panic and worry about losing my investment, I felt pretty ill for a couple of weeks!

I didn't sell any shares but I didn't buy any more as I am already highly leveraged into Tesla. I leveraged myself fully when we went back below $300 several months earlier.

I still believe in Tesla and pretty much I believe in Ark Invest's narrative on Tesla, but there are very powerful forces trying to bring down Tesla, and nothing is guaranteed.

Hopefully we can recount our tales of suffering when the stock gets to $3,000 in a few years time!

 

[anon]

I'm actually a bit concerned about Model 3 deliveries in Europe - over 1000 new cars showed up in inventory sometime last week and there are still 964 there now - I think they've sold barely 10 per day, if that.

 

[Xenius]

Remember, most folks right now are probably ordering a configuration specific to them. I know my thought process was "if I'm spending this much, I'm getting exactly what I want". Plus we don't know how accurate those inventory numbers are.

 

[anon]

Remember, most folks right now are probably ordering a configuration specific to them. I know my thought process was "if I'm spending this much, I'm getting exactly what I want". Plus we don't know how accurate those inventory numbers are.

Sorry, I should have explained that I don't see it as an indicator of bad overall demand for the reason you mentioned, but instead a possible indicator of European deliveries being a bit lower than expected in Q2, as they are not on track to sell all of the cars already delivered to Europe. Although inventory levels on ev-cpo are often lower than actual inventory, I don't think they can be higher, so it is possible that inventory in Europe is larger than this. In the past, the selection on ev-cpo has often been only a fraction of the full available inventory visible to Tesla employees.

 

[SPadival]

Curiously, BabyCharts unblocked me on Twitter and even started liking/retweeting some of my stuff. So yeah, weird.

That's the real Teslacharts. The fake Teslacharts has still blocked you

TeslaCharts (@TesIaCharts) | Twitter

TeslaCharts (@TeslaCharts) | Twitter

 

[Creekstalker]

I think the SR+ move in China is super smart and an incredibly bullish sign.

My inner pessimist has always worried about what happens in Q1 2020 when the federal subsidy for Tesla is $0 and $7500 for all the competition which, while outclassed by Tesla, are still solid EVs. The Y will not have fully ramped by Q1 2020 either. Q1 2020 could be really tough.

Here's why I like the move:

1. If Giga Shanghai is really rolling, China will compensate for what could be a rough Q1 in North America. The pent-up demand in China alone is going to help tremendously throughout the 1st half of 2020 until the subsidy hangover in the US dissipates and Y production ramps.

2. This is a signal that demand in the rest of the world can carry us until then. We don't need to sell Fremont SR+ in China for a tiny profit now when we can sell it at a big profit in 6-10 months. Let China buy fewer cars with higher profit margins for the time being. I can't think of a more bullish signal regarding worldwide demand than this.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's back:

"i <3 fanart"​

 

[Bet the House]

What is truly amazing was how little dry powder talk happened in the 180s. People here celebrated when stock dropped below 300 so the can buy in..but looked for ropes when it dropped below 200. Now people are buying in as SP rises. But when it was at 180, people were waiting to buy in at zero or something.

I believe most of the dry powder was already used up before we got below $200.

I know I was completely out of powder below $200 and had to borrow funds to buy sub $200 (which was a very difficult financial decision to make). When the stock was in the upper $300's getting TSLA sub-$300 seemed like a great price. Getting in sub-$200 didn't seem possible and everyone placed their bets accordingly.

If we think about it right now as TSLA is about $230, if you have dry powder, do you decide to pull the trigger now or wait until it is sub-$200 which may or may not happen. I think most people here wanted more when it dropped below $200 but weren't able to get more.

Anyway, I'm really hoping the shorts are feeling some pressure right now as the stock is rising and that they start getting forced out. I don't believe a true short squeeze is possible (as has been discussed at length) but I do believe some will be forced out of the stock which will give TSLA a bit of a lift.

 

[Tslynk67]

Nah, SyPHYLis is obviously what he is alluding to

Seems to me that $TSLAQ are more lihe Sisyphus...

Trollin' Chanos - maybe he'll finally block me now

Lycanthrope on Twitter

 

[Silentk]

Spotted on Twitter: (is Vincent on TMC?)

 

[thx1139]

I'm actually a bit concerned about Model 3 deliveries in Europe - over 1000 new cars showed up in inventory sometime last week and there are still 964 there now - I think they've sold barely 10 per day, if that.

And you have this information how? If 1000 were delivered to Europe werent those cars already ordered by customers. Just need to be delivered by 6/30/2019 at midnight to be counted.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's the real Teslacharts. The fake Teslacharts has still blocked you

TeslaCharts (@TesIaCharts) | Twitter

TeslaCharts (@TeslaCharts) | Twitter

View attachment 420540

How the hell can they both have identical handles and account names??

Anyway, explains a lot! Cheers!!

 

[sixela]

I'm actually a bit concerned about Model 3 deliveries in Europe

If you were European you wouldn't be "concerned". You'd be nailbiting if you had an order ;-).

At one point in time they basically dumped the entire stock of unassigned VINs for all boats to arrive in Q2 on the "inventory". It took about 3 days for all the RWD LRs to disappear, because they continued matching these to orders (fortunately) and when it was announced that RWD LR was no longer orderable off-menu there was a mad rush of some to snatch the last ones visible.

I'm following the mad scramble of M3 to order matching in four countries (UK, Benelux, Germany) -- I can assure you there's no demand problem ;-).

And if you drive by Zeebrugge they're trying to get the Grand Dahlia cars chucked over to the Delivery Centers at a mad rate. Not sure if the Grand Mark cars are going to be lobbed over to Delivery Centers in time, but they sure seem to be trying to (from what I see they're trying to chuck these to countries close to Zeebrugge, i.e. Germany/Belgium/Netherlands and possibly the North of France).

 

[samppa]

If you were European you wouldn't be "concerned".

At one point in time they basically dumped the entire stock of unassigned VINs for all boats to arrive in Q2 on the "inventory". It took about 3 days for all the RWD LRs to disappear, because they continued matching these to orders (fortunately) and when it was announced that RWD LR was no longer orderable off-menu there was a mad rush of some to snatch the last ones visible.

I'm following the mad scramble of M3 to order matching in four countries (UK, Benelux, Germany) -- I can assure you there's no demand problem ;-).

The whole europe inventory for M3 is a bit weird, it all just appeared on teslas website maybe 2-3 weeks ago, then it was all gone, then it appeared again..

 

[anon]

And you have this information how? If 1000 were delivered to Europe werent those cars already ordered by customers. Just need to be delivered by 6/30/2019 at midnight to be counted.

Tesla offers some new inventory for sale on their site - you can see it directly there, or more easily at ev-cpo.com, which collects the data from the Tesla site and provides it in a more helpful way. This inventory has specific VIN numbers and is not already matched to existing customer orders.

they basically dumped the entire stock of unassigned VINs for all boats to arrive in Q2 on the "inventory".

Do you mean that all unassigned VINs showed as available for immediate sale from inventory on the Tesla site (and also ev-cpo.com, which makes it easier to view), even though there were already customers for those configurations waiting to be matched? I hadn't imagined that they would do that, but then it's not surprising when deliveries generally seem disorganised.

The whole europe inventory for M3 is a bit weird, it all just appeared on teslas website maybe 2-3 weeks ago, then it was all gone, then it appeared again..

Any idea if some of the same cars are included or if this is a new batch? I haven't been watching actual VINs.