Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

wish I would have the money and time.

software developers are the easiest to convert. they are well paid, yet often very cheap, and data driven. Hard TCO numbers are all you need to win them over.

Makes sense, I was kidding but great job my friend... I didn't realize they were getting hit with the FUD that we're innundated with, but it sounds like it's just as bad. I'm really glad you have the ability to spread the truth and I really hope the owners of the model 3 in China are as enthusiastic as the rest of the world and positive word of mouth creates demand exponentially as it has here. Keep us all posted!

 

[RiverCard]

I've updated my model with the actual production & delivery numbers.

Bottom line in Q2 : 195M gaap loss, break-even on non-gaap, $1.4B positive operating cash flow.

That cash generation is going to make shorts cry.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Very helpful! But dare I ask, what is the rationale for holding R&D and SG&A static in the second half of this year when everything above on the Income Statement is expanding? Doesn't the combination of GF-3, Model Y, Solar Tiles, the pick-up, Semi, FSD, and Robo-Taxis require additional investment in R&D? Same concern about essentially no increase in SG&A when much of the growth in deliveries will be in markets where the sales/service/parts/supercharger infrastructure needs to expand to support the larger fleet?

 

[Singuy]

Based on the comments on all these videos it seems people are not buying into any of the analyst nonsense. They keep talking about competition, but right now competition can’t put out a $40,000 car. They are having to put out a $65000 car and they are competing with the S and X for peanuts meanwhile the 3 is taking the whole cake.

Then as a consumer you look at the risk of buying an EV and it’s not going to make sense to skip the brand that has devoted their efforts towards EV’s, offers the cheapest one, and the most consumer rewarding one. I get it if you are just an Audi, Jaguar, or BMW person but at the end of the day the EV market is Tesla’s.
I don’t want to be too negative on other EV’s. It’s great that companies are putting resources towards it, and hopefully they continue to push Tesla into being that much better.

It's hard when Tesla and Space-X sucked up the best engineers. BMW by the sound of it is about to throw in the towel.

 

[1kEE]

I laughed at the amount of “reporting slip-ups” I heard on Bloomberg radio this evening while driving home. This is in 15 minutes of listening.

One choice bit was an announcer stating something to the effect of: “due to demand fueled by panic buying prior to EV tax incentive expiration, Tesla sold a record number of cars”. How did the announcer come to that conclusion, and why state it as fact??

Another announcer stated “Tesla delivered 95k Model 3 sedans”. I’ll excuse that mis-read of the script hahah....

Overall, considering Bloomberg is like the premier radio network for market related news, wow, pretty sloppy. I’m not picking on Bloomberg, I happen to love listening while trading. Merely stating this as an example of how poorly this stock is covered by the media.

One would think reporters and analysts would hate saying something incorrect, but in the case of this stock it’s considered normal.

 

[brian45011]

. I guess we’ll have to wait for ER.

Good chance that buy side analysts in the institutions are waiting to pour over the 10Q in early August, and it may take a week or two for their investment committees to decide how to adjust their positions. Trade accordingly. August monthlies may be the best expiration for buying /writing straddles, strangles, spreads, etc.

 

[LJS22]

It's hard when Tesla and Space-X sucked up the best engineers. BMW by the sound of it is about to throw in the towel.

There’s a lot of truth in that. Tesla has made cars much more complicated for these other brands. How many brands have a team that is working on Full Self Driving, or coders working on software, how many have access to the number of batteries necessary to compete with Tesla?
I would not be surprised if we see some more backtracking from these companies trying to get a fully electric car to market. But they are entering the no return zone, only so much time before saying “consumers don’t want ev’s” will look like “consumers only want Tesla’s”

 

[Artful Dodger]

There was an unintentionally hilarious moment in that CNBC segment. After Gene Munster had finished taking, one of the talking heads on the panel (Brian Kelly I think) attempted to bring up demand issue, but he literally stopped mid-sentence and said “I got nothing...someone else can take over”.

Will try and find clip

Loup Ventures Founder Gene Munster on Tesla's record delivery numbers

 

[Singuy]

There’s a lot of truth in that. Tesla has made cars much more complicated for these other brands. How many brands have a team that is working on Full Self Driving, or coders working on software, how many have access to the number of batteries necessary to compete with Tesla?
I would not be surprised if we see some more backtracking from these companies trying to get a fully electric car to market. But they are entering the no return zone, only so much time before saying “consumers don’t want ev’s” will look like “consumers only want Tesla’s”

Elon will have the biggest face palm if legacy manufactures throw in the towel due to battery constraints, poor drive train design, and inability to be profitable with EVs. The company was designed to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy...it'll be a sad day if Tesla ends up having to do this alone. They may just do another round of freebie giveaway. If Tesla continue to dominate, selling 10-20x more than their nearest competitors then eventually there's really no point pursuing. Jag/LR is in deep financial trouble right now with the iPace yielding absolutely nothing in ROI.

So far not one legacy manufacture can sell enough of their EVs in a quarter than Tesla can sell in a week's time. Billions spent on engineering and tooling. Every main stream media and short seller helping their cause..and yet they have nothing to show for....

 

[LN1_Casey]

Does anyone think that Tesla will (either) buy back some stocks, (and/or) then split the market share within the next year or so?

 

[NicoV]

Were you here? They intended to hit 10k with the originally ordered equipment. Period. They failed. I think I am recalling 2016 plans, however... They were backing off by mid 2017, it is true...

“No plan survives contact with the enemy” - Field marchal Erwin Rommel

 

[kengchang]

Does anyone think that Tesla will (either) buy back some stocks, (and/or) then split the market share within the next year or so?

Negative Ghostrider

 

[Singer3000]

Does anyone think that Tesla will (either) buy back some stocks, (and/or) then split the market share within the next year or so?

No. Why on earth would you think that?

 

[Dutchie]

They reaffirmed guide Q1 because they want you to understand that deliveries were lower than expectations due to logistical issues. Now they didn't reaffirm guide this time because they assume you know how to add simple numbers together. It even tells you Q3 will be a QOQ increase. How much spoon feeding do you freaken need?!

Tesla does poorly, guide is a lie..they will do poorly
Tesla does great, no guide means they will do poorly

Just go F yourselves.

Indeed, and what about that remark about management and credibility issues. They guided 90K-100K delivery for Q2 and did it right smack in the middle. These Motherf......rs were the ones sowing doubt about demand issues etc. And then the competition which is coming.. YAWNNNN!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon will have the biggest face palm if legacy manufactures throw in the towel due to battery constraints, poor drive train design, and inability to be profitable with EVs. The company was designed to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy...it'll be a sad day if Tesla ends up having to do this alone. They may just do another round of freebie giveaway. If Tesla continue to dominate, selling 10-20x more than their nearest competitors then eventually there's really no point pursuing. Jag/LR is in deep financial trouble right now with the iPace yielding absolutely nothing in ROI.

So far not one legacy manufacture can sell enough of their EVs in a quarter than Tesla can sell in a week's time. Billions spent on engineering and tooling. Every main stream media and short seller helping their cause..and yet they have nothing to show for....

I think you under-estimate the FSD play for Tesla. A 50% annualized increase in production over 8 years brings Tesla to 10m/yr. With FSD, those 10m vehicles displace the entire annual new ICE sales.

That's how long the fossils have to switch to making EVs: 8 years. Otherwise, they become used car maintenance organizations in a collapsing market.

 

[Remus]

Makes sense, I was kidding but great job my friend... I didn't realize they were getting hit with the FUD that we're innundated with, but it sounds like it's just as bad. I'm really glad you have the ability to spread the truth and I really hope the owners of the model 3 in China are as enthusiastic as the rest of the world and positive word of mouth creates demand exponentially as it has here. Keep us all posted!

the FUD is actually worse. And the cheap Chinese EVs are not helping because people think the battery degradation is a big problem.

 

[FrankSG]

Best comedy show on TV! 10/10 would watch again

These guys would be saying the same thing if Tesla had somehow just reported 1.000.000 deliveries in a single quarter.

 

[LN1_Casey]

No. Why on earth would you think that?

I have heard/read that stocks can split when they get high in cost per share, and of course if they purchase their own stocks back than there would be less post split.

Is there something negative associated to that process I'm unaware of?

 

[Electroman]

Based on the comments on all these videos it seems people are not buying into any of the analyst nonsense.

You are right, the comment section is almost 90 to 1 against these FUDsters.

 

[kengchang]

I have heard/read that stocks can split when they get high in cost per share, and of course if they purchase their own stocks back than there would be less post split.

Is there something negative associated to that process I'm unaware of?

Why does splitting matter? It's the amount being used in buying shares. Splitting share is usually done to create trading volume/liquidity in the market.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Why does splitting matter? It's the amount being used in buying shares. Splitting share is usually done to create trading volume/liquidity in the market.

Well, I personally care about it because if the stocks reach above $500/share, I won't be able to logically purchase any more.